No. That's not true and the AP News seems to be having trouble interpreting the forecast. The 27 day forecast for activity just has to do with the rotation of the sun bringing back active regions to face earth every ~27 days. This allows you to make very general low accuracy predictions about the solar wind and coronal hole based co-rotating interaction region geomagnetic effects. But these effects are minimal and only really matter to people under the auroral oval (far north/south).
There is no way to predict actual solar storms that far ahead. Nor any way to predict geomagnetic effects at Earth 4 days ahead unless the sun put out a really slow, big CME (which it hasn't).
This is not news. This is a science understanding mistake made by AP News.
I haven’t kept track of the strength of the last coronal mass ejection, but I know you are wrong in this regard, because coronal mass ejections take around 3 to 4 days, sometimes even longer to reach earth. Other effects from solar flaring, such as x-ray particles, and high charge electrons arrive, basically, instantaneously along with light (~8m)
> The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks has forecast auroral activity on Thursday in Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Indiana, Maine and Maryland.
> The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks has forecast auroral activity on Thursday in Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Indiana, Maine and Maryland.
> Light displays are expected to be visible overhead in Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Helena, Montana, and low on the horizon in Salem, Oregon.; Boise, Idaho; Cheyenne, Wyoming; Annapolis, Maryland; and Indianapolis, according to the institute.
> best viewing times are between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time.
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[ 3.8 ms ] story [ 26.6 ms ] threadThere is no way to predict actual solar storms that far ahead. Nor any way to predict geomagnetic effects at Earth 4 days ahead unless the sun put out a really slow, big CME (which it hasn't).
This is not news. This is a science understanding mistake made by AP News.
> Light displays are expected to be visible overhead in Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Helena, Montana, and low on the horizon in Salem, Oregon.; Boise, Idaho; Cheyenne, Wyoming; Annapolis, Maryland; and Indianapolis, according to the institute.
> best viewing times are between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time.