The reefs will move north. Not to be flip, and say that climate change is not an issue, but here the planet can and will adjust--if not on the timeline us humans (and humans who make our livings off tourism) would like.
What makes temperature induced die off significant is that they’re essentially instantaneous: any part of the reef that exceeds some critical temperature dies completely and immediately. The core problem is the temperature increases are far faster than can be grown away from.
Acidification is slower but persistent and inescapable. It attacks existing coral and prevents new growth.
> any part of the reef that exceeds some critical temperature dies completely and immediately.
Typically exceeding CTmax results in bleaching, the expulsion of symbiotic microalgae from the animal polyps, and there is a window of weeks to months in which they will return if temperatures decrease. In the terrible Great Barrier Reef bleaching years of the past decade where individual reefs were facing near complete bleaching, many have made full recoveries.
Worth noting coral reefs are highly diverse, even with very high mortality of corals there are crustose coralline algaes and other habitat building species still at work so the reef doesn't die completely, and 'weedier' coral species start ecological succession quickly.
To your point though these are novel and trying times for low latitude reefs, at least historically speaking.
An important part about reef migration (or in fact any environmental adaption) is that it takes significant amounts of time. In the order of hundreds if not thousands of years.
Reefs do not grow or expand quickly, and mass die offs due to temperature are funamentally not recoverable.
But even if they could it is not a long term solution, as ocean acidification means that reefs are become gradually non viable everywhere.
On the other hand your username and attitude both imply you’re “libertarian”, which in general means appealing to basic science is of questionable value here.
> But even if they could it is not a long term solution, as ocean acidification means that reefs are become gradually non viable everywhere.
More metabolic stress and lower calcification rates but to my knowledge there isn't research to support projected ocean pH making reefs nonviable globally. The photic zone in which reefs grow will still be a good ways off from the CaCO3 saturation depth, although some deepwater mesophotic reefs and regions, less so. Heatwaves will remain the dominant threat for a while yet.
It isn't a given that the reefs will move north. Migratory fish, certainly. And in some regions some coral species are redistributing poleward, like tropical Pocilopora alicae into Sydney Harbour. The pelagic larvae of some species will probably find hard substrate to settle on further north and colonies will probably grow, in some number at least. Whether there is sufficient hard benthos that isn't exposed to too much eutrophication, wave action, hurricanes, turbidity from coastal development, disease outbreaks et cetera on a regular basis for reefs to grow is another question. Keep in mind that biogenic reefs have formed over thousands and thousands of years.
> The reefs will move north. Not to be flip, and say that climate change is not an issue, but here the planet can and will adjust--if not on the timeline us humans (and humans who make our livings off tourism) would like.
I'm not sure about that. The vast majority of coral reef destruction around the world has not been due to climate change but other human activity. Fishing, as well as agriculture, forestry, erosion, cities, dredging and shipping, that cause sediment and nutrient and chemical poisons.
Unfortunately personal cars are a drop in the ocean (ignore any pun please) compared to other systems like the military, commercial shipping, air travel etc etc. There needs to be a coordinated effort to de-carbonize and focusing on impacting peoples personal comfort as the first step isn't going to work particularly well when folks know they aren't the primary contributors to the issue.
I wouldn't call them a drop in the ocean. You're right that personal cars are only one of many emissions sources, though.
Ideally, we should try to reduce emissions as much as possible in every way possible, prioritizing those that don't reduce standards of living, but to the degree that we need to, say, drive less, we should do that too. I honestly think that most peoples lives would be better, not if they just drove less with all else being the same, but if our cities and towns were changed in such a way that we didn't NEED to drive nearly as much. The less driving we need to do, the easier it is to decarbonize it.
> Unfortunately personal cars are a drop in the ocean (ignore any pun please) compared to other systems like the.....
Not disagreeing with you, but everything by itself is a drop in the ocean compared with the total - the "coordinated effort to de-carbonize" starts with doing what's possible and reducing CO2 use of land travel is a lot easier than for the military, commercial shipping, and air travel at the moment.
fun fact: Linus Torvalds, in addition to being the author of the linux kernel and the git VCS, is also the original author of subsurface, a software for downloading and managing dive logs from scuba diving off your dive computer
on a less lighthearted note, if you're interested in coral reefs, i highly recommend the beautiful and heartbreaking film "chasing coral". it follows a group of divers who set out to film a coral bleaching event in real time by designing an underwater timelapse camera. it's a wonderful intersection of technical engineering challenges and ecology that i think would appeal to a lot of HN readers
"Project Drawdown’s mission is to help the world stop climate change—as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible.
We do this by advancing effective, science-based climate solutions and strategies; fostering bold, new climate leadership; and promoting new climate narratives and new voices."
Articles like these are laughed off. Somehow, putting more money in the pockets of oil companies is a priority, not the environment or future generations. Watching the polluting and destruction of the environment, or an increasing grim future for humanity, is like joke material. Coral reefs... LMAO?!?!
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[ 5.7 ms ] story [ 76.5 ms ] threadLike the northern cooler part survives and the reef moves that way?
What makes temperature induced die off significant is that they’re essentially instantaneous: any part of the reef that exceeds some critical temperature dies completely and immediately. The core problem is the temperature increases are far faster than can be grown away from.
Acidification is slower but persistent and inescapable. It attacks existing coral and prevents new growth.
Typically exceeding CTmax results in bleaching, the expulsion of symbiotic microalgae from the animal polyps, and there is a window of weeks to months in which they will return if temperatures decrease. In the terrible Great Barrier Reef bleaching years of the past decade where individual reefs were facing near complete bleaching, many have made full recoveries.
Worth noting coral reefs are highly diverse, even with very high mortality of corals there are crustose coralline algaes and other habitat building species still at work so the reef doesn't die completely, and 'weedier' coral species start ecological succession quickly.
To your point though these are novel and trying times for low latitude reefs, at least historically speaking.
Comments like this are well outside of site guidelines.
This goes way over the line. Per the guidelines,
> Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.
So no, the severity of the situation does not warrant personal attacks and accusation of shilling.
Reefs do not grow or expand quickly, and mass die offs due to temperature are funamentally not recoverable.
But even if they could it is not a long term solution, as ocean acidification means that reefs are become gradually non viable everywhere.
On the other hand your username and attitude both imply you’re “libertarian”, which in general means appealing to basic science is of questionable value here.
More metabolic stress and lower calcification rates but to my knowledge there isn't research to support projected ocean pH making reefs nonviable globally. The photic zone in which reefs grow will still be a good ways off from the CaCO3 saturation depth, although some deepwater mesophotic reefs and regions, less so. Heatwaves will remain the dominant threat for a while yet.
I'm not sure about that. The vast majority of coral reef destruction around the world has not been due to climate change but other human activity. Fishing, as well as agriculture, forestry, erosion, cities, dredging and shipping, that cause sediment and nutrient and chemical poisons.
With an average speed of 1 inch per year they better start sprinting now
We are killing our home.
I'm not being overly dramatic.
If we don't stop now...
And for what? Some comfort? Some more profits for the few?
We will not solve this by continuing the way we lived for the last 100 years
Ideally, we should try to reduce emissions as much as possible in every way possible, prioritizing those that don't reduce standards of living, but to the degree that we need to, say, drive less, we should do that too. I honestly think that most peoples lives would be better, not if they just drove less with all else being the same, but if our cities and towns were changed in such a way that we didn't NEED to drive nearly as much. The less driving we need to do, the easier it is to decarbonize it.
To be tongue-in-cheek: just tax carbon lol.
Or animal agriculture.
Not disagreeing with you, but everything by itself is a drop in the ocean compared with the total - the "coordinated effort to de-carbonize" starts with doing what's possible and reducing CO2 use of land travel is a lot easier than for the military, commercial shipping, and air travel at the moment.
Perhaps we will "achieve" it this century already!
on a less lighthearted note, if you're interested in coral reefs, i highly recommend the beautiful and heartbreaking film "chasing coral". it follows a group of divers who set out to film a coral bleaching event in real time by designing an underwater timelapse camera. it's a wonderful intersection of technical engineering challenges and ecology that i think would appeal to a lot of HN readers
movie: https://www.chasingcoral.com/ subsurface repo: https://github.com/subsurface/subsurface
"Project Drawdown’s mission is to help the world stop climate change—as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible.
We do this by advancing effective, science-based climate solutions and strategies; fostering bold, new climate leadership; and promoting new climate narratives and new voices."
Maybe I should really take a sabbatical and go plant trees in a tropical forest...