Ask HN: Minoxidil trial results, is it worth it?

2 points by xchip ↗ HN
Given this study: https://www.jaad.org/article/S0190-9622(02)00124-X/fulltext

For a 48 weeks treatment, these are the results I think it reports:

- Starting hair count (average): 151 hairs per cm^2

- Ending hair count (average): 168 hairs per cm^2 (+18 new hairs)

So all it gets you is 18 new hairs per cm^2? Isn't this a ridiculous number?

11 comments

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My understanding as a Minoxidil user is that it's mostly a preventative measure to prevent further hair loss. It certainly can regrow some hair, there's plenty of evidence of that, but it's definitely a limited amount. It certainly won't give a bald man a full head of hair.

You can't just compare the before hair count to after, because presumably if you didn't use it you would have lost even more hair in that time. Unfortunately you can't know how much that would have been - but just say you would otherwise have been down to 140 h/cm^2 in that time, then the effect is 28 h/cm^2 instead of 18.

Even if the amount of hair stayed the same, if it prevented more balding it would be helping. Whether it's worth it or not is up to you.

I don't think it prevents further hair loss, according to the study the control group ended with +4 hairs.
Minoxidil simply extends the anagen (growth) stage of the hair follicles by strengthening them and improving blood flow to the scalp.

If your head was a bathtub, this would be like turning up the tap.

However, male pattern baldness (androgenic alopecia) is usually caused by the hormone DHT, which is a byproduct of testosterone. DHT can shrink hair follicles causing hair loss, and that’s primarily what you’re fighting against.

You can help prevent testosterone from being converted to DHT by inhibiting the enzyme 5-alpha-reductase. The typical prescription for this is 1.25mg of finasteride, taken orally.

Back to the bathtub analogy, this would be like putting in the plug.

When taken together, this treatment is fairly effective for most people, although side effects can be somewhat common with finasteride (eg low libido) so do more research if you go down this route.

I am not asking how it works, I am more discussing the numbers they report, cuantitatively, and they report 18 new hairs after 48 weeks.

I find this increase ridiculous, not sure why it is so extended the idea that it is effective.

You need to understand how it works if you want to analyze the numbers.

If your pool had a hole in it and you saw the water level slightly go up, you would conclude that the water flowing in must have been slightly faster than the water leaking out. Now imagine if you patched the hole.

I would recommend comparing with a study with both minoxidil and a 5a-reductase inhibitor.

Sorry, I am not following you.

I don't think we need to understand the details of how it works to conclude the ROI is ridiculous.

Hairs per cm^2 is one metric (per the mentioned numbers) an 11% increase. By ridiculous, I presume a connotation of "not material" or "not worth the effort" (and for some, it isn't, because they don't respond to the treatment).

Returning to metrics, another could be the diameter of each hair, which impacts the aesthetic quality. 151 hairs per cm^2 doesn't visually present the same for all individuals with that exact density (due to thinness/thickness of each follicle). Other treatments can be paired with it simultaneously, which may further improve results.

It really says numbers like 151/168 hairs/cm2? That sounds way higher than native, non-balding density of the human scalp. I think most people have like 100/cm2 tops. You will not be visibly balding until you get to around 40/cm2 or so. Depends on hair calibre too.

In any event, +18/cm2 is actually a good amount in terms of cosmedic effect.

I have taken both topical and oral minoxidil for years. I have also researched many anecdotal cases of minoxidil use. Some people have a tremendous response to it. The side effects are generally negligible.

We are discussing the average ROI, not cherry picking the (few) anecdotes where it went well.

If you are going to bring new (and extraordinary) numbers please bring (extraordinary) references.

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