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This is a really interesting perspective, and a very convincing argument. The decline of past media industries does show a trend that looks similar to the changes occurring in the current games media industry. These changes are never destructive (despite what the affected platform holders will say), merely transformative. It also presents an interesting argument for entrepreneurs; could old media formats like Arcade or Movie Theatres be bought back with some disruptive change element, just as PCs have recovered some ground with digital content (steam) and free2play models.

I think it's hard to say "Most game development is changing to mobile"; I think there's also a resurgence in PC gaming at the same time, but in a free2play/subscription model sense, without the restrictive policies of the console and mobile platform holders. With the launch of the PS Vita and the new technological advances on the horizon (A15, anyone?) I can definitely see mobile gaming and entertainment becoming a mainstay for most people. If gaming gatherings were as simple as bringing your phone/tablet/other misc. mobile device and meeting some people at a cafe or something to play together it would be a revolution. Imagine LAN parties with tablets + controllers or something. Self-contained portable gaming systems. This was sort of what I hoped the Vita would attempt; to make traditional gaming more social. To break down the physical barriers between gamers. But with the lacklustre games lineup and no real innovation in the platform, it appears mobile gaming is headed in a much more fruitful direction.