Ask HN: What are the big/important problems to work on?

122 points by toombowoombo ↗ HN
I keep seeing critiques against working on tasks that are meant to maximize user engagement. A recent comment that I saw on the subject went in the lines of: <these are not the big/important problems of our lives>. Therefore my question comes because I cannot seem to see by myself what the real problems are.

A short argumentation would be valuable too, just so it's understandable where you come from.

Thanks & Happy Monday!

211 comments

[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 225 ms ] thread
I would call understanding what's the underlying mechanism behind LLMs and other deep models such a problem. I.e. what's the internal representation? How it emerges over training? What its failure modes.

There're two reasons:

- In order to substantially improve these models we need to understand what they do. Something similar happened with steam engines when thermodynamics helped to explain what they do and improve them substantially.

- We need to understand their failure modes in order to understand their safety profile. I.e. it's AI safety problem.

If you can solve human greed then all other problems will resolve
What does it mean to "solve human greed"?
Create a system or structure that naturally dis-incentivizes greedy activity and promotes pro-social community development
if everything was automated and the only fields left were science or arts, ie exploring the universe or entertaining those who do, well imagine a world where half the people are researching scientific endeavors, I don't think you can get much closer to star Trek unless we have first contact with the vulkans.
imagine a world where half the people are researching scientific endeavors

exactly this. most people i talk to about this feel their mind blown when they think about the implications. i don't know why this is so hard to imagine.

I'm sorry, but I stopped believing that this could ever happen a long long time ago. This is a belief that you can fill the world with people like yourself, heck I'll even venture that these are my 'ideal' people too. Where every conversation is something productive positive and curious and all of our fellow humans energies are directed away from petty rivalries over social status and access to mating partners , and toward minimizing suffering and maximizing whatever it is that makes humanity distinct from the rest of the flying molecular clouds of entropy that make up the universe.

And then, you see what people actually do with the little free time, the precious little free time they actually have. An astonishingly large group spends hours a week in a ritual that involves sticking prosthetic bristles the size of paint brushes to their eyelids because it looks "hot." another group spends an equal amount of time fitting obnoxious light bars to their oversized pretend work vehicles to blind other drivers and pedestrians because its "cool."

A still greater group, which encapsulates these two examples as well as many others like rhem, is chiefly interested in acquiring toys to show off to one another; a behavior that remarkably doesn't seem to ever get curbed no matter how wealthy and maximally free to do whatever they want, (like the aforementioned research and artistic pursuits) people become. As having access to essentially limitless energy and resources is comparable to winning the lottery, just for an entire civilization instead of a handful of people, as a sample ask yourself what is the fraction of today's lottery jackpot winners you suppose have taken their sudden windfall and with it the freedom and flexibility to do anything they want, and turned it toward personal pursuit of any of these noble interests such as you describe?

I don't mean throwing some money at it for bragging rights and to feel like they've made some contribution to the world, I mean personal interest where they themselves engage in a focused program of skill development to a degree of expertise beyond what can be purchased off the shelf. I would wager that it's as close to zero as makes no difference, and this does not bode well for a future in which everyone is given a comparable access to leisure and resources to spend as they choose.

This is a belief that you can fill the world with people like yourself

not at all. unless you limit the definition of being like yourself to be interested in learning useful things.

you are not seeing the bigger picture: when most people are out of work because what they were doing until now is automated, we will have to come up with ways to keep them busy.

but even if most of todays work is automated, there is still a lot of other work that humans can do: we need more doctors and teachers for example. but also artists and entertainers.

so what needs to happen is that our education changes. basically, school is no longer just about learning the basics you need to function in society, but school will be more focused on training teachers, doctors, scientists, artists, entertainers and any other work that still should be done by humans. and no matter how much these people are like your or myself, when that happens, we will end up with a lot more scientists.

teach people not to be greedy. see my other related comments on this page.
With sentient robots?
Maybe?

However we would need to do two things that just aren't going to happen on this planet with humans:

1. Ensure that these robots will work for humans for free forever with no ethical liabilities (Is it ethical to keep a conscious robot as a slave?) or long term existential risks 2. All value/money/etc... created by the robot would be 100% be captured by the individual using/running/owning the new robot slave

Perfectly possible to do technically but unlikely as the political-economic structure that dominates the world will destroy whatever it creates along with the customers and employees to the temporary benefit of a tiny group of people.

The world's hardest problems are generally uninteresting because they aren't problems you personally can do anything about without years of training.

"What is the highest-impact problem you are capable of solving?"

^^ I think this question is more powerful and much more difficult.

Learning your limits is incredibly hard. You have to border between optimism and pessimism -- between ego and humility.

After you understand your capabilities, follow your curiosity to find great problems. I think the discovery of good problems is itself the important trait. If you rely upon others to tell you which problems are important, you will spin directionless without understanding the underlying principles.

Even if you could solve the hardest problem, you still need to eat while working on it. This means that one of the most important problems to solve is more efficient basics. 500 years ago 95% of the world males were farmers (maybe enslaved, but still farmer). Women had to spend 10 hours per day making clothing. (Historians can give better numbers and details of the sex difference, but for this discussion the above is close enough despite missing many details)

Making the basics more efficient is always helpful. Though this is hard as a lot of smart people are already on the job.

Your ego should slightly overshoot your ability.
or what's a 360° feedback performance review for?
I think an issue people have is they believe they are good at solving problems which they then think they can do minimal research on something and will be able to solve problems in that domain.

I've spent my career building web based software for solving business problems. That doesn't translate at all to solving anything that qualifies as a problem for the world or humanity. I don't intend on changing my career trajectory at this point, I'm fine with solving these types of problems for the money it pays. This doesn't mean I don't care about big/important problems just that my contributions to those will be small in nature based on my personal time/money.

i feel that the highest impact comes from efforts that have a long term effect. one of these is to change the attitude everyone takes towards the world.

what the world needs the most is more people who understand that we all need to make an effort and contribute to make things better for everyone.

to get people to reach this understanding and be serious about it and also feel like they can actually have an impact, and more importantly have the hope that it will work and is not futile takes living by example and impress that on your family, friends and neighbors. then as your resources allow engage in the local community and show other that making a contribution is easy and worthwhile.

this way slowly there will be more and more people who will pick up this attitude until a critical mass is reached at which point solving otherwise huge problems (like climate change) becomes easy because the majority will be supportive.

You can certainly join teams and projects that work on "important issues" - whichever you feel these are. You don't need to solve them all by yourself.

You also don't need to do any of the technical work yourself. You can do HR, funding, art, management for that team.

There's almost always more you can do.

1. Get your home in order, groom yourself, take care of your family.

2. Get more involved in your local community, church, charity, local politics

3. Get some issue awareness and vote without being a useful idiot

Those three categories are all things that most people are more than capable of and simply don't... "I don't have time..." meh, most people have time to spend an hour on social media, hours on youtube or playing games every day. There's plenty of time.

I was in the dating pool about 7 years ago, and one thing I always remembered was how much people would say they wanted a relationship, but wouldn't actually take the time to meet someone during the week after work. I mean, if it's something that matters to you, it's something you want in your life to accomplish you make the time.

You don't reap rewards and accomplishments without effort.

"What does it mean to be human?"

We are about to see machines surpass human performance at every conceivable task.

I therefore consider the problem of understanding what humans are at the fundamental, existential level (besides second-class machines) to be the deepest and most important problem of today.

And I suspect it will be the only problem left for the humans of tomorrow.

LLM context window limitation.
Non-exploitative business models.
Maybe to expand on this a bit, I suspect supply chain transparency is an important goal. It's generally accepted that if you're using a phone, you're probably using a product that at some level relied on slave labor / forced labor.

Some companies, like Fairphone, have made huge strides into addressing this problem, but there's a big question about how sustainable they are in our present economy. They may fail because of restrictions they have imposed on themselves, that every other company should be operating under as well.

Richard Hamming gave a very influential lecture called “You and your research” — there are a few versions of it online and it’s been discussed here a few times before.

He poses the same question in pretty much the same way, “why aren’t you working on the most important questions in your field?”

I would say that what he defines as “important” is along the lines of “what will be the most influential?” - the sorts of things that bring Nobel prizes and glory.

But no one can tell you what is important: it depends on your own values; it’s a question you have to ask yourself.

I would take a different approach than many other problems here.

- Healing damaged relationships in your life.

- Addressing unresolved internal traumas and fully integrating them.

- Replacing addictive and avoidant behaviours and taking care of the problems in your life head on.

I don't have "the answer" to any of these, obviously, but they are certainly big and important.

This is probably close to the correct answer. The “real big” problems are also things you have little influence on - but your own like you have major influence on. And you can’t easily change others, but you can work on yourself. (It won’t be easy.)
Yeah this is where my mind went as well, instead of something like "climate change" or "self-driving cars".

If you're in the United States, I think the biggest problem you can solve is to make sure that you and your family are as insulated as possible from the US healthcare system.

- Get and stay as healthy and fit as possible

- Get enough money to where you can afford the majority of the care you and your family need (either through work insurance or straight cash)

- Learn how to advocate for yourself and your family

- Understand how to minimize your chances of going broke as a result of a health issue

This is one of the saddest comments I’ve read of late.
Too many powerful people are incentivized to maintain the status quo. As an average individual it's better to understand and deal with the system than pretend it doesn't exist.
Get yourself and your house in order first. You can't help someone else effectively if you are a total mess. That said, community engagement, volunteering and charity are all things that help you get your priorities straight as well. But you need to get your own shit in order pretty early on.
Tearing down the political circus, big government and achieving a pocket of anarchism powered by free, unconstrained trade.

Green, sustainable, plentiful energy. Turning trash into products.

Achieve greater and more harmonious integration of technology and nature.

Fostering small decentralised groups, communities, instead of large institutions, companies, projects. Doing more research on how small groups of people behave, as opposed to what sociology has been doing for the past 75 years.

Making technology work for us. Dedicating 40 hours a week for 50 years to full time employment, for the privilege of hiding from the rain, is a level of slavery most people are happy to defend.

Declaring the current computing stack as bankrupt and unsustainable and explore novel ways of expanding human intellect through technology. The current code-compile-run model was already ancient in the 1970s. We have reached a local maxima, time to try something different.

--

These are the things I care about, and not enough time nor connections to make a significant dent to any of them, just yet. Happy to chat about any of this with other restless souls.

> Doing more research on how small groups of people behave, as opposed to what sociology has been doing for the past 75 years.

I think that's one of the roles of anthropology.

OK, perhaps not how they behave, but how best to leverage their potential, while sociological research has mostly been applied to making people work in harmony in large companies or institutions.

In fact during my short research on the matter, one source explicitly lamented the fact that pretty much no one has been doing any significant study on small group dynamics since the 70s. All the money is how to make us efficient cogs for the Machine, not how to form small, nimble groups up to of 5 or 6 that are tightly united and motivated in the pursuit of a single goal, often massively more productive than a large system that mostly relies on politics and hierarchy to keep everyone marching in the same direction.

Well it might sound trite, but sociology is predominantly made up of left wing big government types, so there's no surprise there.
Where do you live? I'd suggest moving to a small community and seeing what kind of impact you can have! I'm considering a "Free Apple Tree Initiative" where I am to get a shit load of apple tree planted around my small town at what I consider to be very small personal cost to myself.
Oh man, I would if I had any contacts at all. I live in London, and my deep, deep dream is move to the countryside in a large farm house/art and hacking collective with like minded engineers.

Imagine a high tech eco-commune as close as possible to nature and social life. Gigabit fibre and organic garden. A solarpunk, Raspberry PI powered collective of nerds and artists.

But I don't know where to start, and don't know where to recruit others for this endeavour.

in austria there is a popular model where a small group of people (10-20 families) pool their resources to build a house they can all live in with shared ownership. these also can be found elsewhere.

i don't know where to start though. i guess it is a combination of picking a target area and finding others interested. also choosing what is important to you. like how close do you want to live to the city. i fear that more isolated locations work better for an already close knit group as opposed to one that just finds itself.

an alternative approach might be to buy a piece of land and start building for yourself but with expansion in mind and then invite others to join you for short or long term stays. (like build an area with rooms for guests and if you find some that want to stay expand as needed)

> an alternative approach might be to buy a piece of land and start building for yourself

Yeah I thought about that... if only land was not so expensive in Europe and UK. I can't afford to do this investment by myself just yet, but that is what I'm working towards anyway.

My thoughts:

* Some new kind of wholesome work that gives anybody with a mobile phone a source of income, enough to pay for shelter and food.

* Invent a way that an organisation's operations that cannot fail because the operations are desired by people and it is not dependent on funding or property.

* Abstract the problem of costs so that we can indeed have good things and they are sustainable and kept alive.

* Heal the world wide web.

The internet seems to be a really good tool for sliding some people into ideologies of hate.

If you could avoid or correct that course, like at an architectural and protocol level that'd fix a big problem of the internet.

I'd only accept that it's not possible if someone could somehow demonstrate a logical proof (such as, presume a system existed, then prove by contradiction that it's not possible, etc). That would be an achievement in itself.

I doubt the solution to ideologies of hate is blocking them at the architectural or protocol level. That sounds just as dystopic, if not more.
I agree but I don't think the suggestion was to block ideologies. Rather, change the online ecosystem to stop driving people toward rage. How to do it is another question.
blocking wasn't the suggestion. It was the identification of the problem. It's a complex and sophisticated topic.

Mass shootings that start with people being radicalized by some kind of online patterns and systems is certainly a problem worth trying to fundamentally tackle somehow.

I've got no fixes so that's why I mentioned it.

I see, then I misunderstood. My bad
The problem is specific to advertisements on the internet, and modern social media enabled by them.

Ad companies have strong financial incentive to maximize user engagement. Over time, they discovered the best way to achieve that is promoting outrage culture. Angry people generate tons of clicks, page views, and comments.

Before mass advertisements, content providers paid for bandwidth instead of earning money per views. I don’t believe internet had such polarizing effect back then.

I think it's more complicated. You'll find lots of really organized and popular hate groups in telegram channels, on tor and other places where there is no real advertisement model.

Back in the Usenet and BBS days there were lots of online hate stuff. https://timeline.com/white-supremacist-early-internet-5e9167...

There's something deeper about the medium, structure, engagement - it's complicated but it also might be solvable somehow.

I agree the hate was always there, but this was equally true even before any internets. I don’t think it’s possible to do anything about that. Arresting all these people, or censoring their speech, or banning them from the internet is IMO less than ideal.

Still, before the modern internet infested with ads, there was no incentive for platforms to actively promote these polarizing views. The opposite was true, because network bandwidth costed them money.

Modern internet ecosystem does just that, at great scale. No longer these are small groups general population is unaware about and not interested in. The polarizing content is now actively promoted by both mainstream media, and huge social media platforms. It’s so profitable they can’t resist, and their shareholders don’t care about the externalities it causes to the general public.

These externalities of ad tech aren’t limited to political polarization. For social media, mental health is another major one. Teenagers are especially vulnerable, and it seems there’s strong correlation between mental health and social media use. Here’s some article about the topic: https://www.newportacademy.com/resources/well-being/effect-o...

hate was always there, but this was equally true even before any internets. I don’t think it’s possible to do anything about that

this can be addressed by teaching people to be better and to get a better understanding of each other. on the individual level and in school, our education needs to focus on this.

I agree in theory, but in practice I’m not sure that’s likely to happen.

I think parents and peers have more influence on the children compared to the education system. For this reason, the real problem here isn’t “how to improve education” it’s “how to improve the society”. Sadly, this one is way harder to solve ‘coz education is only a part of that.

There's a couple axioms we need to agree on.

1: The Mark Twain adage "A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."

2: Given (1) Successful hate mongering is based on methods and patterns of propagating deceptions and lies that are distinct from good faith efforts of say historians or scholars

3: These methods are easier to do on how the web is currently configured than the scholarly ones.

4: The current configuration for the web is one of many. Choices were made in the late 80s/early 90s on which axioms of choice and constellation of ideas would be implemented to construct the web in a certain manner that still exist.

5: There exists some configuration C0 that makes the methods and patterns of lies and hate mongering more difficult then it currently is.

6: There exists some configuration C1 that makes the methods and patterns of good faith efforts less difficult then it currently is.

If we can agree that these premises are all plausible then the next and way harder job is to show that C0 and C1 either can or cannot exist by discretely defining everything else in those other premises.

We're talking probably multi-year PhD level work here. Maybe it involves rethinking network-routing or DNS, introducing new protocols like an SSL for cross-checking reliabilty - I have no idea. This is not trivial.

We have real world analogs for this by gatekeeping titles and activities such as "doctor". But these legacy protections have atrophied due to the web and the institutional choices of the internet have eroded the earlier institutional choices of how we, say, use the term doctor and what significance and authority we bestow unto it.

The cement of the internet has long dried and we sit here thinking the decisions of the 20th century are somehow taken as natural law. In reality, it's all mutable institutional choices that we've forgotten to continue questioning. Whether that is worth doing or a waste of time I have no idea.

>1: The Mark Twain adage "A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes."

"The one who first states a case seems right: Until the other comes and cross-examines." Proverbs 18:17

Reserving judgement until one has all (or, at least, most) of the facts is the first step towards preventing the spread of lies.

"Always tell the truth. Or, at least don't lie." --Jordan Peterson

Humans are very quick to spread rumors, gossip, half-heard/misheard 'facts', uncorroborated/unsourced/unevidenced stories, etc because we have an innate desire to tell others something "secret". To feel like we are in a position of authority or power because we know something you don't.

And sometimes we can tell the truth that looks especially bad.

My dad likes to tell this story from when he was about 12.

One Monday morning, his little brother walked into Kindergarten with a giant black eye. His teacher asked what happened, and he replied, "my brother hit me in the head with a baseball bat."

This, of course, was obvious cause for alarm.

So they pulled my dad out of class and asked him what happened to his little brother, to which he replied, "I hit him in the head with a baseball bat."

As they were getting ready to call their dad for a parent-teacher conference - possibly even to consider pressing charges on behalf of the injured child, they went and found their 9-year-old sister, and asked her what happened to her little brother. She told them, "oh - my older brother hit him in the head with a baseball bat."

But she went on to provide context: "he was hitting pop flies to me to catch to practice for softball season, and our little brother ran behind him while he was on a backswing, and got knocked down."

Neither brother lied about what happened.

Indeed, they both "told the truth".

But neither told enough of the story to prevent/correct some likely misconceptions about what had happened. Had they been asked, "why did you brother hit you"/"why did you hit your brother", either would have filled-in the 10 seconds of backstory necessary to change the impression of the adults asking from horror over abuse to sympathy for an accident, and relief it was not more serious than "just" a black eye.

As data and information moves in ever-larger volumes ever-faster around the world, curating it into something that is both understandable and which contains enough context to be able to come to a proper conclusion about what you're seeing/hearing is becoming possibly the biggest issue facing society as a whole.

10 seconds of video probably doesn't have enough context to be fully understood - especially when it could be cut together, deep-faked, dubbed, etc

Solve the problem of ensuring information is reliable, accurate, and contains enough context to be understood properly, and you'll have solved social media

Great answer. Related: attention hijacking. There's so much online psychological manipulation that manipulates people's attention and intentionality.
I have the feeling that we are looking at climate change wrong.

All the discussion is about reducing CO2 emissions. But we have nothing to show for it. Even the during the Covid lockdowns, CO2 emissions were reduced by only 10%:

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. That means even if we permanently take the extreme measures of the Covid lockdowns, global warming would be in 11 years were it would be in 10 years if we did nothing.

Yes, we should continue to push towards reducing CO2 emissions. A carbon tax would probably be the most effective way to achieve that.

But that will only give us more time to prepare for the inevitable: Living on a planet with higher temperatures and all kinds of problems that arise from it. It will happen.

What technologies can we develop to cope with it?

CO2 absorption is the new technology that is more promising than reducing CO2 emissions. Imagine, you could buy a device that can absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and which can subsequently be either converted to a form that is more eco friendly or could be stored in a way that doesn't contribute to global warming, governments and people would invest in that.
Carbon capture is a scam.
Just curious, how are companies such Noya [1] scammers? I would like to know more about the technical due diligence part. Thinking about Theranos story and how easy was to realize the company was an scam.

I agree to the general idea that we need to plant trees and create technologies to solve the problem.

[1] https://www.noya.co/

The amount of money invested in systems that emit carbon is massive. Those companies are happy to bet a few million here or there on the slight possibility that carbon capture might work. So it’s a good little revenue earner if you can create a few nice diagrams.
The main problem is there is simply too much carbon for us to be physically able to pull enough carbon out of the air to make a dent in our emissions.

Carbon capture might be able to help if we land on some breakthrough, but it cannot save us.

Remember that carbon is *heavy* (carbon dioxide is actually almost twice the weight of the fossil fuels that were burned to make it -- though hopefully you can avoid capturing the oxygen)

We currently emit something like 15 billion tons of carbon each year.

That is more than 3x the amount of cement made each year (4.5 billion tons). More than 3x the amount of food that's made each year (about 4 billion tons). About 8x the amount of steel made each year (2 billion tons). About 30x the amount of plastic made each year (about 0.5 billion tons)

Can we build a logistic system capable of processing, transporting, and storing carbon -- a completely useless material -- in quantities that exceed the global food, cement, steel, and plastic production combined?

I doubt they are scammers in the traditional sense. But it's worth thinking about the total carbon cost to 'capture' and 'store' a given amount of carbon.

What I would be surprised to find is that there was a massive differential between the cost (in carbon) for raw materials, manufacturing, distribution/transportation and running (energy + people costs) and the amount of carbon captured.

It's a bit like perpetual motion machines. If you zoom in enough, they can seem to move forever. But if you zoom out they are getting energy from somewhere.

On the small scale they transform money into sequestered carbon. But how much of that money goes (directly or indirectly) into generating carbon?

At this point in the climate emergency, we need more constructive conversations. Simply stating that carbon capture is a scam deflects the conversation from productive avenues. How about: "Carbon capture is an unproven technology, which hasn't stopped companies like X from trying to make a buck doing it. We should be focusing more on Y, because it can help today."
Rainforests might disagree
Sounds like a tree.
We’d need to increase the world’s forests by something like 700 mature trees, per year, per person, for ever.
5.6 trillion trees per year... unless we plant them on the ocean that won't fit
Aren't those devices called trees? They absorb CO2, store CO2 and water eco-friendly, reduce ground temperature, prevent erosion, create natural habitats for animals and can be used as construction materials. Governments: I'll send you my PayPal in a PM.
People generally seem to miss the point that humanity in its current state is fully dependent on fossil fuel and that will change only very very slowly. So, emissions will be there to stay for a while. Fundamental research into capturing it at scale would be a good endeavor.
It will happen, we all know it, and people are most certainly thinking about it. But it shouldn't be opposed to reducing CO2. Even if it is already happening, reducing CO2 will (most likely) also reduce the warming itself, and make the future slightly more bearable.

Moreover, global warming is just the tip of the iceberg, it's the thing that is presented to us in the most direct ways, but other things like mass extinctions of species, oil depravity, overpopulation, forever chemicals etc. Etc. Will be a problem someday also.

So instead of trying to "cope" with every catastrophy that is thrown at us (while making living on earth more and more annoying), maybe we should think about the solutions on a global scale, because there's no way it will happen without that

So there's really nothing one can do. Even living the regular lifestyle of any western country is by itself a contribution to the issue. Stop fooling yourself with technical solutions, as it will only push the issue for later, or be counter productive

Changes can't come without a massive overhaul of our economy and society (probably for the worse)

overpopulation is not a someday problem at all. Either it already was the problem and is the direct cause of global warming or you haven't been paying attention to demographics which show global population peaking in the 2050s because of India and China modernization.
> So there's really nothing one can do

This is a cop-out. There's always something you can do. The problem is that it's often very complex, or requires more experience, or more influence, etc. Meaning that before you can noticeably move the needle, you need to get 10 years of prep work behind you. But the fact that it's difficult or time-consuming is a completely different story than it being "impossible."

Sorry, but I get tired of people throwing up their hands and saying "I can't do anything about this situation" when they really mean "this situation is so difficult that I'd rather go take a nap than deal with it."

Disagree, we should be prioritizing developing and improving carbon capture capabilities such that we can outmatch and overcome existing emission levels. Most people aren't going to reduce their CO2 emissions if it means a noticeably worse lifestyle.

Accepting that CO2 emissions are unbeatable, so the best we can do is cope, sounds like a loser mindset. Those who believe in the inevitability of increasing CO2 emissions have already accepted defeat. The game is far from over and hope is not lost.

I do think material science break throughs for carbon capture is the most sensical way to solve this. But huge space projects or chalk dust airlifts are cool too.
There's tons here, too, once we get past the laser focus on removing CO2 and averting global warming. Off the top of my head:

1.) Every major city needs evacuation plans, and evacuation routes, in case of a natural disaster. Because disasters will get more frequent. Right now these are terribly inadequate, as we saw with Hurricane Rita. Solving this starts with FEMA, but probably requires advances in transportation, ability to quickly lay new infrastructure, construction technologies, information & coordination tech.

2.) Low-lying cities will need large seawalls and levees, like what Foster City just built. It cost them a few billion, but it's still cheaper than rebuilding all the buildings after a flood. Imagine scaling this up to every coastal or river city.

3.) We need better strategies to let wildfires burn in the wild yet quickly arrest their progress when they get close to populated areas.

4.) We need cheap insulation, and even cheaper ways to retrofit all the old housing stock in the U.S. with cheap insulation.

5.) We need more efficient and cheaper HVAC systems, ideally ones that don't burn fossil fuels.

6.) We need huge investments in the electric grid to support EVs + beefier HVAC. We also need software systems to manage this smartly, so eg. we can stagger EV charging and not put huge loads on the grid all at once. HVAC also serves as a big battery in a well-insulated home; you can time heat-pump loads for when they'll be most effective and retain that heat within the home during peak load times.

A lot of these will also require extensive public/private cooperation, which is its own sort of problem, and one that's also fairly amenable to software assistance (once the people in charge get tech-savvy enough).

Sucking the carbondioxide out of the atmosphere doesn't seem to be a feasable plan, considering how vast earth's atmosphere is. My growing feeling is that we are long at the point where we need to start putting heavy restrictions in place to avoid desaster. Carbon capture technologies are already in development, but that alone isn't good enough to avert the coming crisis.
I don't disagree but what is the point of single countries putting restrictions in place while developing countries continue to rely on burning carbon? It would handicap the economies of some while others just carry on. As those countries develop they are going to burn more and more carbon. Those developing countries also have massive populations, they will not intentionally handicap their growth while others have already benefited.
I think the main problem is that lots of people car about CO2 emissions but feel (and largely are) powerless to do anything about it as so much of globally emissions are from business.

Governments need to support CO2 reduction and force businesses to cut emissions.

On top of that we need CO2 capture, and yes, we are not going to reduce emissions enough so we will need to adapt a changing climate.

Why would you expect the COVID "lockdowns" to meaningfully reduce CO2 emissions? There was no concerted effort to reduce emissions or energy consumption, and in fact the opposite happened.

Demand for shipping, including large shipping containers and many small online-order car deliveries, skyrocketed.

People were working from home instead of large office buildings, which means less efficient use of energy in smaller heating and cooling systems

Energy use in homes (for heating, cooking, cooling, and lighting etc) is responsible for about 11% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy use in commercial buildings about 7%.

On the other hand, fossil fuels being directly vented into the atmosphere (from leaks, or burning excess fuel) also contributes 7%.

Agriculture, mostly meat and dairy production, and deforestation driven by producing feed for livestock, is responsible for about 18% of greenhouse emissions.

Reducing emissions is really straightforward, and no mystery. It hardly needs new technology, just better deployment of the technologies we already have.

Coal produces about a quarter of total energy, but nearly HALF of all emissions. We need to stop burning coal YESTERDAY.

We only generate about 10% of total energy using low-carbon sources like nuclear and renewable energy. We need to scale those up.

In addition, we need to replace inefficient energy use with more efficient energy use.

Lighting accounts for roughly 5% of all energy consumption. With incandescent lighting being 5x to 10x less efficient than LEDs, we can save about 1% of global emissions just by switching all the remaining incandescent light bulbs.

You list things we could tackle to reduce CO2 emissions.

And yes, we should. And we will tackle them to some degree.

But that does not change the fact that we will live on a warmer planet in the future.

We can't make the planet cooler by taking these measures. They only slow down the pace at which it heats up.

That's the point of my post. That we should also incentivize the development of new technologies that will help mankind live on the warmer planet.

I think a lot about the problem of increasing heat waves causing heat-related illnesses and death. The amount of consecutive days spent above a wet-bulb temperature of 32 degrees C is expected to increase most for countries in the tropical regions of our world (and subtropics).

Many of the countries in these regions are quite poor. Many have weak electrical grids that may fail in severe heat waves, and many residents are unserved in the first place.

If I could quit my job and work on anything else, I think it would be this problem. I don't know enough to say where efforts should be focused. In some cases, providing AC units and improving the electrical infrastructure may be the answer. Maybe in others, the answer is installing geothermal heat pumps, or some other off-grid solution like solar absorption chillers.

> All the discussion is about reducing CO2 emissions. But we have nothing to show for it. Even the during the Covid lockdowns, CO2 emissions were reduced by only 10%

I am not sure that many here know the fact that man-made CO2 emissions are only about 10% of the natural CO2 emissions [0]

> That total dwarfs humanity’s contribution, amounting to ten times as much CO2 as humans produce through activities such as burning fossil fuels.

The problem with man-made CO2 emissions that even though they are small relative to natural CO2 emissions, they change careful CO2 balance in atmosphere and over decades tips the CO2 balance.

Unfortunately, only relying on reducing man-made CO2 makes for a lousy control variable precisely because man-made CO2 is only 10% of total CO2 emissions (kind of a second-order effect). Any effect of reducing it will only show up decades later and we do not know what the new CO2 equilibrium point will be. We need to think out of the box and develop alternative and active climate engineering methods. It will not be easy but we should study, discuss and debate all alternative without exceptions.

[0] https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-carbon-dioxide-does...

EDIT: grammar & some wordings.

All fine but if say 2% is the tipping quantity (I'm pulling numbers out of my arse here) and it happens so that those 10% are the only percents we as humans can influence, shouldn't we push to reduce those 10% and keep an enjoyable planet for our grandchildren? Only a couple hundred years ago the equilibrium was without any human 10& so we have pretty clear numbers here. Decades later is nothing on the scale of the humankind and we claim all the time we are pushing our species forward (remember the saying "one small step for the man..."?) while currently doing things the majority agrees are harming ourselves. It's only that this majority won't agree to even try to do anything about it.
> All fine but if say 2% is the tipping quantity (I'm pulling numbers out of my arse here) and it happens so that those 10% are the only percents we as humans can influence, shouldn't we push to reduce those 10% and keep an enjoyable planet for our grandchildren?

Of course, we should do it and reduce our carbon emissions as much as we can. But in addition to it we should be researching additional ways to control the climate -- reflectivity of the oceans, stratospheric reflecting particulates, methane control, etc. Putting all the eggs in the CO2 control basket might not solve climate for this or next generations.

I mentioned that because reducing CO2 is the only known and proven way to solve climate as for now. Research? Sure. But let's not claim we don't know what to do and use that as a reason to wait until the hypothetical research results are in to do anything.
yeah a lot of the emissions remedies seem to overlook the realities of geopolitics. "Just force people to do it", what with your gas guzzling jet engine Abrams Tanks? At a base level the militaries of the world aren't giving up carbon and we only have like 2 decades left to do something.

We either need to to remove the carbon, affect the albedo of the earth, or deflect radiation coming to earth. Or all 3.

Deflecting radiation is a large engineering project. Maybe you should try to send a fleet of sun shields to the L1 Lagrange point. Or maybe you should try to pump large amounts of chalk dust into the atmosphere. I'm unsure what would be the better use of time. I've read that even just painting all the roads white buys us a few years.

Of all these possible solutions, the sun shield at the L1 Lagrange point might be necessary for humanity beyond just applications of global warming. It sounds big and ridiculous, but we really should consider it.

Recently, my friends and I were discussing same thing about climate change that we are focused on symptoms instead of the main cause.

It is a bit controversial but I think the best way to deal with climate change is to have less kids. I say that as a parent.

It sounds authoritarian and having kids is basic animal instinct. And probably smarter minds have already thought about it and realized that it would be easier to do everything else except ask people to have less kids.

Scaling worker cooperatives. Giving tools/automation that makes it viable.

Building HR-alternative software for workers to organize with and provide for themselves the things that HR denies them (pay transparency, mutual aid, feedback accountability, worker rights training, etc)

Affordable electric vehicles
Apologies for the USA centric views:

Tackling climate change mitigation and remediation.

Getting more people off social media.

Protecting libraries.

Making the police more professional. Raising the bar for police candidates. Stopping the racism and fascism embedded in some police department cultures.

Overhauling the US political system to work for the people rather than the rich.

Protecting the rights of women, including bodily autonomy.

Protecting the rights of queer people.

Protecting the rights of non white people.

Reducing plastics use.

Planting more trees.

Improving housing construction standards.

Giving everyone a permanent place to live.

Decoupling healthcare from employment.

Universal healthcare.

Increasing the number of doctors and nurses.

4 day working week.

Forcing healthcare professionals to work normal number of hours.

Teaching good parenting at school. And various other life skills.

Improving teacher conditions.

Preventing fascism from continuing to rise in America.

Fantastic list. A lot of each are places anyone can start helping with too.
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Would add "encouraging public policy around walkable communities" to your already top notch list. chef kiss
This list is biased in a few ways, so it’s harder to calm these “major problems” when some of them are just fear mongered out of proportion.

To round it out though, here’s another list:

Uplifting the many men falling out of society

Protecting children and their parental rights

Reforming harmful public sector unions like schools and police

Eliminating systemically racist anti white laws in everything from affirmative action to farm subsidies

Eliminating anti white bias in hiring

Reversing the rapidly declining birth rates

Reducing the normalization of sexual degeneracy from porn addiction to the proliferation of digital prostitution (onlyfans)

Reversing the declining trust in institutions (media, public health, DOJ, etc)

The rise of the far right is in large part due to mainline society failing to "Uplifting the many men falling out of society", "Protecting children and their parental rights", and "Reversing the declining trust in institutions (media, public health, DOJ, etc)"

The Left doesn't believe these are issues, but are instead moral failings or the result of a reduction in privilege by cishet white men. Their statements to that effect have pushed ~a dozen of my friends from D to R voters.

Solving the trust and bad actor problems on the internet, without turning the internet into a set of restrictive walled gardens.

Personally I think it's partly solvable with a combination of cryptographically signed HTML elements and a web of trust similar to Raph Levien's https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advogato or https://keybase.io/

But it's going to be a big piece of work.

That’s a political not a technical problem.
I don't think the post specifies it has to be a technical problem. Besides, it's not a social-political problem until someone does the technical work. Does anyone have a proof-of-concept implementation for Firefox or Chromium yet? No.
it's a social problem, and the only way i believe we can ultimately solve it is by teaching everyone to be better people. until we do that there will always be people who will try to take advantage and become a bad actor.

teaching people to be better is the only way to avoid oppressive technical measures. because most technical measures will end up being oppresive at least for some minority or corner cases that don't fit the expectations.

i also fear that technical measures have a tendency to get in the way of diversity as they force the same behavior on everyone and punish or prevent people doing things differently.

...but mere education doesn't work (not against those who want to be a "bad actor") ... if anything, more education makes it possible for more people to be "bad actors"
you are right, mere STEM education could help enable bad actors. but children are not born wanting to be bad actors.

part of the education needs to be moral education, starting from childhood, about what is good and bad behavior. good rolemodels, etc. we will never completely eliminate bad behavior but we can reduce the likelihood of it occurring by teaching everyone about good behavior.

Keybase is over, but worry not, KeyOxide to the rescue!
In 2015 the UN created 17 ‘Global Goals’ (https://www.globalgoals.org/) that are meant to be a "shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future":

Goal 1: No poverty

Goal 2: Zero hunger (No hunger)

Goal 3: Good health and well-being

Goal 4: Quality education

Goal 5: Gender equality

Goal 6: Clean water and sanitation

Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy

Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth

Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

Goal 10: Reduced inequality

Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities

Goal 12: Responsible consumption and production

Goal 13: Climate action

Goal 14: Life below water

Goal 15: Life on land

Goal 16: Peace, justice and strong institutions

Goal 17: Partnership for the goals

Each one is broken down into subtasks and targets. Making a dent in any of them would be worthwhile - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sustainable_Developmen...

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Local government SaaS.

There's so much business processing in local government whose cost could be cut by an order of magnitude if extracted into external software. In an inflationary world with stretched budgets, this could add much needed resources to public services.

For example, instead of each police force building their own video reporting system they could share an external one. Similar for booking GP appointments, managing jury duty, applying for council tax discounts and managing parking permits.

People might critique this comment by referring to SaaS solutions which already solve these problems. However, none of these are adopted at scale.

The biggest barrier to widespread adoption lies in the sales process. Marketing to governments is hard and the challenge of effectively addressing privacy/ethics/sovereignty concerns is bigger than with most private sector actors.

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Making child care affordable.
universal access to internet, universal access to hover powered transportation devices.