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Ask HN: Does “Effort Deflation” Demotivate? Why Not Wait for Ever Easier Tech?

3 points by simonmesmith ↗ HN
In economics, deflation causes people to delay spending, expecting future prices to be lower. I find myself experiencing a similar phenomenon with technological advancement, especially with generative AI. Considering the pace of progress, anything I think to create—whether code, imagery, videos, music, etc.—seems like it will be easier and better accomplished in 6-12 months. Unless there’s a current need (e.g., earning a paycheck), the logical choice seems to be: wait for even better technology. Does anyone relate? If so, how do you navigate it?

7 comments

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warrenm
Waiting is itself an opportunity cost - you could spend the next year learning/experimenting/doing ... for, say, $1000 - but be a year ahead

Or you can spend a year not learning/experimenting/doing for $0 - saving $1000, but being a year behind

Just like buying a car, computer, phone, house, etc - put your stake in the timeline and live with the decision

Neither buying & starting now now waiting to buy & start for a year is inherently bad - just need to pick which cost ($$ today + experience vs no experience and $$ tomorrow) is better for you :)

simonmesmith
For sure. But would you really be a year behind? I don’t think it’s necessarily so. For example, if GPT-5 can write a full, deployable application from a text prompt with no errors, is it worth trying to hack something like AutoGPT to do it while waiting? It feels like in some cases you might be ahead and in others you’ll have wasted effort.
warrenm
of course you are a "year behind"

...because a year will have elapsed between now and a year from now :)

I started programming in the early 90s around age 10

And I was 10 years behind everyone who started in the early 80s. And 20 years behind everyone who started in the early 70s.

...and 10 years ahead of everyone who started in the early 00s

That's just math :)

If ChatGPT 5 comes out in a year, and you wait to start til it's here, you will be behind however long the developers of ChatGPT 5 have been working on it

AND you will NOT have a year of experience on ChatGPT 4 while waiting for version 5 :)

simonmesmith
But if you anticipate that GPT-5 will have X capabilities that will negate the need for you to learn Y intermediate tools, so you can instead focus on Z, you will have avoided wasting effort that could be better spent elsewhere.

Like, if I know we’re in a deflationary economic environment, I’m better off sitting on my cash and waiting for prices to drop before making a purchase, unless the benefit of owning that item outweighs the cost of not waiting.

I think I now do similar cost/benefit calculations regarding technology.

syndicatedjelly
> But if you anticipate that GPT-5 will have X capabilities that will negate the need for you to learn Y intermediate tools, so you can instead focus on Z, you will have avoided wasting effort that could be better spent elsewhere.

That's the gamble you play. It's pretty rare for a technology to have absolutely 0 transferable skills to the next one.

frje1400
That your gamble could be competely wrong is the main risk. What if the next generation AI doesn't change things much and is just a minor incremental improvement over the current tech, and it takes 3 years to get there?

It reminds me of the peak of self driving car hype bubble 5 (?) years ago. If someone back then had asked if becoming a truck driver was a good idea, ppl like you would have said no because their job would be gone soon. Instead we have more need for truck drivers than ever probably due to all the packages order online. Sure, could a revolutionary self driving truck be released tomorrow that makes some high percentage of all truck drivers lose their job? Sure, I guess, but my bet is that it's not happening.

I look at the generative AI thing the same way. Could a product theoretically be released that makes my job as a dev obsolete over night? Yes, absolutely, but it seems unlikely due how messy the real world is. Other people will make a different call.

muzani
I still make pixel art. I still join pixel art communities, like them on social media. There's no point. AI art is better. But idk, I like it?

I used a prompt from 2 years ago to write AI poetry on bug fixes just a moment ago. There's a command for poetry on Copilot for PRs, but I like mine far better.

It's a good companion. Productivity is a side effect.

It's not what I do to retire 17 years earlier. It's just hacking the kind of future I want to see. Why buy a PS5 when you can wait for a PS8?

Play around with the custom instructions. Find a tone that's soothing to you. It can sound like a stern father, a sarcastic gf, a peppy kid who spams emojis. Turn it into a familiar, an imaginary friend, or one of those annoying companions Disney princesses carry around. Just have fun with technology.