Ask HN: What Will Replace Smartphones?
Smartphones were sort of obvious. We didn’t predict we’d all be using phones as primary devices per se, but it was obviously going to be some portable screen computer device.
I can’t think of what will be next. We’ve all heard about wearable computers, VR/AR. Well the technologies here and nothing seems revolutionary.
Smart watches are just smaller phones. People love to fantasize about wearable devices tracking bio information, doing away with checkups. We all know how the Theranos story went, you just can’t do it.
VR is impractical, having to use parts of your body for what used to be at your finger tips is a step backwards. The amount of obscure gestures one would need to know, they might as well learn command line.
22 comments
[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 146 ms ] threadThe big issue is: how do you request information? Voice, is impractical. There's no direct mental link. I see minor improvements but no replacement. At least within our lifetimes.
Somebody replace these pieces of wet garbage, I beg of you.
I couldn’t agree more. I think HTC used to tout a waterproof phone (was a lie) but there used to be more focus on durability and longevity back then.
Apple and Samsung generate all this e-waste with disposable 2 year phones you might as well wipe your ass with and chuck away.
It was a wide prediction, for a long time, sure.
> We’ve all heard about wearable computers, VR/AR. Well the technologies here and nothing seems revolutionary.
We had “portable screen computer devices” a long time before smartphones clicked, too. Handheld devices with full programmability, and the ability to load software, existed a long time before even the first pre-iPhone smartphones, and even pre-iPhone smartphones and PDAs weren’t convincing as the broad “portable screen computer device” that everyone expected, but no one had seen the right implementation of.
So the predictions of wearables (maybe integrated in a personal-area-network) being the next thing may be spot on – we may just be for wearables where “portable screen computing” was in the days of the Apple Newton.
> People love to fantasize about wearable devices tracking bio information, doing away with checkups. We all know how the Theranos story went, you just can’t do it.
Wearable monitors for various bioinformation exist, and did so before Theranos was dreamt of. Theranos was a fraud, but that doesn't negate wearable biomonitor devices, which continue to advance.
> VR is impractical, having to use parts of your body for what used to be at your finger tips is a step backwards.
Fingertips are part of your body, so, no, its not a step backward to use a part of your body for something that used to use a part of your body.
> The amount of obscure gestures one would need to know, they might as well learn command line.
Is this an argument for why smartphones won’t be replaced by VR, or for why smartphones won’t replace keyboards? Because you seem to be presenting it as the first, but it seems to make as much or more sense for the second. Turns out, people actually are fine learning “obscure gestures”.
Apple connected the mobile small-screen computer with entertainment, first with the iPod and then they tacked on a phone and it was a no-brainer. Music, games, and a phone in one device -- almost everyone could see some value or at least the attraction of that.
Arm vs fingertip is much more than just parts of the body. How long does it take you to reach the top left corner of your phone with your finger vs reaching for it with your whole arm behind some submarine goggles? That wouldn’t bother you when you just want ti sit down and relax?
> Turns out, people actually are fine learning “obscure gestures”.
Are they, says who? I’ve heard plenty of mixed views. But to answer, my argument is the former.
How’s it going to be in VR when you have to raise both hands and pull down to open some app drawer? Or move both hands to the left to open the settings pane? I could go on and on, it’s freaking sign language. Why don’t I just click my tongue for brightness up and do a p sound for brightness down? I’d tell Siri but when I’m in public I’d feel like Captain Picard.
There are things a smartphone will never do as well as a computer in terms of productivity and expression. But phones are extremely better with portability, better suited for leisure. So much so that every time I use a laptop on the couch to read something, I’m instantly going “what am I doing, this feels arcane” But I don’t see where VR fits, it feels more toy oriented than something you’d want to take with you when you’re at Starbucks.
Motion tracking doesn’t mean you control things with your arm. It can even be with your fingertips. AR + motion tracking could mean “an interface just like a touchscreen phone/tablet/giant-Surface-Hub-digital-whiteboard, but on any surface you choose at the moment”. Sure, its not there yet, but neither were handheld devices anywhere ready for ubiquitous general use for the first few decades.
It’s the immersive goggle, drawing on virtual wall that isn’t there that turns me off. I think we’re going to find that tactile feedback is important and if a computer is an extension as people say, it will be in this world.
Pokémon Go is probably the best example of AR success. It made use of a device we already have.
Wearable bio trackers will happen eventually, but that's a phone accessory, not a phone replacement.
The closest thing to a real replacement may be flip phones, for some people who choose to use them.
However, I very much hope future Androids get side touch scrollbars, and we move the keyboard up by a bunch for less thumb bending. The ergonomics could use some tweaks now that they're primary devices for most. Ideally maybe even put the keys where my thumbs already are when holding a phone, and make content reflow around them.
How about a flip phone, like the Nokia 2720, but with an Apple M2 SoC and camera. When you activate its HotSpot any device can connect to it via WiFi and use it as a personal server. That way you can have a convenient sized screen, keyboard and any other devices. It basically would be like a ChromeBox in your pocket.
Paired with AR glasses though, for screen size.
My guess: the future is a smartwatch linked to eyetracking-based AR glasses. Looking at a screen will seem blasé in 2050.
I specifically don't want buying stuff to be too convenient. There has to be some hassle involved, so that I don't do it without thinking about it. That's why I always reject autofill prompts for credit card numbers, for example.
The less we have to think about interacting with computers, the more prevalent they'll be.
What's next would be what comes after an advanced computer in your pocket. Logically, that must be either a wearable or an implantable device.
At some point, they stopped being phones and became extremely powerful all-purpose computing devices. What comes next?
I just wish alternate form factors of phones had gotten more attention. A plain glass rectangle is absolutely a local minimum of design, but I think it's very far from the best form factor.
For my money, I bet we're stuck with phones until implants become commonplace. There's just not that much else you can do with the 'computer in pocket' form factor
My only other thought is if we discover a reliable method for producing holograms. Then we'll probably see something similar in form to a phone, but which projects a full desktop computer environment, or whatever computing environment is appropriate for the task.
It will be constantly hearing and learning user habits to entertain and serve one. Conversation will be fluent like with real human. It will proactively serve advices if user sets it up like that. Can do shopping or judge products according to user taste.
Then some kind of minimalistic bent display in form of wearable bracelet, wider than any smartwatch, touch sensitive, equiped with sensors and cameras, synced with that AI asistant will be used to present or record graphical information: maps, pictures, video, tables, receipt.
The future of computing is the convergence of the human body with user interface. Pointing/typing will be replaced by brainwaves or sub-lingual vocalisation, screens replaced by retinal projection, audio with direct nerve stimulation. Clothing will integrate biometrics and potentially be where the "PC" so to speak sits - while the peripherals will be other wearables.
While all very exciting - i think the real urgent need is for an ecosystem which can solve the thorny problem of privacy:
How can I keep my thoughts well within myself...with the current landscapes of profiling, fingerprinting and the like, it does not bode well for an open, and human incarnation of the above dream-tech.
You don’t “hold” anything, you interact freely with a screen that appears floating in front of you.
Hey, the projection could be applied directly into your own eye, as only you could see it (or eyeDrop — pun intended — with others ?)
Good luck with that, but hey, Clarke’s 3rd law:
> Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.