Ask HN: Is the world broken? or are we entering a new era?

The chickens are coming home to roost...

My impression is that a lot of developments that were already going wrong for quite a long time, but could be ignored relatively easily, are now reaching a breaking point.

I think there is also a sort of "cascade failure" going on, on which some events are changing the conditions for more rvents to occur: E.g.: The general political turmoil inside the US led to the Trump election, which led to a weakened image of the US in the world, which may have emboldened other powers like Russia, which may have contributed to the outbreak of the Ukraine war, which has led to record inflation, etc etc.

Likewise, climate change has reached a level in which the consequences are beginning to be felt even by rich nations, and the predicted tensions and upheavals are starting to materialize.

Those are not the single "causes" of any of those events, but it might be one of many causal chains that connect all those world events and led to mutual escalation.

Where all of this is leading? I have no idea, but definitely to a different era. The question is what kind of era.

I hear this stories of people who came from war zones and lived in constant fear but when they got out they actually MISSED IT! That shit is real.

I am so black pilled, humanity learns nothing and repeats the same shit over and over and over again. The lifespan of people can be directly linked to when it all goes to shit again. People who could directly warn us what not to do are dead, so its time to repeat.

This is just the end if a golden era. The next generations are going to envy us.

> Why are so many people jobless?

Perception -- Unemployment is lower today than in 82 of the last 94 years.

> Why are so many companies going bankrupt?

Perception -- Bankruptcies, currently around 50k companies per year, are also at historic lows. Before about 2015, 100k to 150k was the norm.

> Why so many people are homeless?

Perception -- Homelessness appears to be on the decline, having fallen from 210 per 100k population to 170 per 100k in the span of 10 years.

> Why there are so many people under mental health issues?

I have a several hypotheses on this one.

Broken -- Lifestyles in the developed world have evolved faster than our biology. Men have few paths to fulfill their drive to build and conquer. Women have few (if any) children to nurture. And children have little unsupervised play and exploration, and practically zero responsibility. These stresses push some people (e.g., the man who would build a home on the frontier but can't bear an office job) over the brink and into mental illness.

Broken -- In the past, people with severe mental illness were less likely to reproduce. Many were institutionalized, killed, or left to their own devices. This limited the proliferation of genes that code for mental illness. Now that we've spent several generations trying to keep everyone comfortably afloat, it's only natural that we see more people carrying (and expressing) genes that code for mental illness. Same principle explains the increase in other conditions that are no longer likely to be fatal: Asthma, poor eyesight, premature birth, etc.

Perception -- We diagnose more often (and for less severe cases) and the taboo against having a mental illness is lower than it used to be.

Prevalence is probably similar or lower, but information is so much easier to come by, and societal stigma about talking about it (rather than just going to a bar, or suffering in silence) is lower with the internet. Still everyone understands so much more about mental health now, and toxic relationships and many things that were once normalized deeply are breaking down

However everyone also is competing with everyone. You don’t get to be “one of the smartest person in town” anymore because the town includes everyone on the internet. We’re still dealing with the initial wave of everyone being connected.

But that was sort of a blip. We are entering a new era, but not because the world is broken, but because the dust is settling on that era and we’re kinda going back to normal.

That said, there’s some reason to worry that the return might be a little cataclysmic in the way that a long-stuck fault line can produce a bigger earthquake than one that slips more frequently.

Systems and tech bleed out concepts.

If you're a Dominic Monk, yes it's worth the conversation.

Serious discussion online is basically impossible, the shared frame of reference is orders of magnitude too weak.

People love to nitpick details on second-order concepts, but without a connection to first-order metaphysics, the conversation immediately dies on pre-requisite meanings that can't be communicated in 'one HN post'.

Mental health issues are a natural consequence of unbounded logic (machine supercharged),

unstructured knowledge (flat heirachy and chaos shaping the internet experience)

and 'public' relationships (random drop-ins trying to share common ground).

These problems will only get worse (sorry) and anyone who actually tries to fix it will take the blame for being mentally ill (unless they have serious prestige/support).

This post will not fix it.

Do you know any other "mental health" issues except of just being stupid? Can you elaborate on that kind of issues?

> My question is, the whole business model of the world gone wrong?

Same issue but a different perspective. You might be a really smart guy, possible a Noble winner, but then you buy some computer devices which are hostile to a FOSS philosophy, you lose some of your personal freedoms and attract other guys, smart guys and really smart guys to do the same. Those devices limit a honest discussion by allegation reasons (CSAM, Patriot Act, ignorance of Ed Snowden's research etc) and the world without a honest discussions is going to fall in a war with increased speed and acceleration.

Roughly same is happening with climate change - there is a lack of a honest discussions and that leads to such an ultimately stupid decisions as closing nuclear electro stations in Germany.

Another growing problem is anti-abortion laws which will increase a criminalship after 15+ years from now. How is even possible to persuade religion-driven actors to consider the real facts? I believe only prohibition of every piece of software but FOSS can fix the problem of lacking the honest discussions.

For the former, the news has created a polarised landscape where the negatives are put under the spotlight 24/7, and issues are turned into massive world ending ones that various political sides constantly argue about online. So you'll think every issue in the world is bigger, more widespread and more dangerous than it really is due to this hype/fanaticism driven culture.

At the same time, there's definitely more awareness of things like mental health, homelessness, etc due to the internet and social media because information doesn't have to go through gatekeepers anymore, and people are less judgemental about those struggling with those things than they used to be. So awareness isn't necessarily a bad thing here, just if it's portrayed as "we're all fucked and everyone's going to die!"

As for changes in the world itself? Well, there are definitely some things that have either broken or hit their tipping point. Climate change was an issue for decades, but its effects over time have built up to the point that ignoring it is no longer a practical solution. This in turn has led to some problems with the world's temperatures, weather patterns, natural disasters, etc that will only accelerate in time.

Meanwhile other issues like economic breakdowns are the result of trends from the 60s/70s that were shortsighted then, and hilariously so in hindsight. Such as failing to enforce anti monopoly laws or properly regulate large businesses, treating housing as an investment rather than a right and in the case of tech companies, investing in anything and everything regardless of how likely it is to actually make a return on said investment.

So yeah, it's a mix of both.