HN Explorer

9 comments

[ 6.0 ms ] story [ 25.5 ms ] thread
pnpnp
I’m not making predictions about anything, but part of their job is to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
bigDinosaur
That's true, although isn't the thing here that they plan for realistic worst-case scenarios, which is the scary part? There are probably lots of worse worst-case scenarios which they'll never do much preparation because they're so unlikely. War with China does not seem to be that unlikely.
Cacti
you think war between two nuclear powers is likely?
pnpnp
Playing devil’s advocate - this was thought to be a real possibility during the Cold War, and it seems like we came pretty close a few times during that period.
yumraj
A nuclear war between two nuclear powers is different from a conventional war between two nuclear powers.

The former is, hopefully, unlikely unless one side feels there’s an existential crisis or a major loss. The latter is extremely likely.

Though the latter can definitely escalate into the former.

V__
> because they're so unlikely

Or because the outcomes might be so bad, it's not worth it to prepare for it.

credit_guy
> War with China does not seem to be that unlikely

Well, the more the US prepares for it, the more unlikely it is. Or, the best way to win a fight is to convince the other guy it's not worth fighting.