Discussions of the strategic rationale, from a game theory perspective, of permitting or staging attacks are considered extremely distasteful, but historical precedents exist.
The Reichstag Fire (1933): This pivotal event in Nazi Germany involved the burning of the German parliament building. The Nazis blamed the fire on communists and used it as a pretext to arrest political opponents and consolidate power. However, there has been ongoing debate over whether the Nazis themselves orchestrated the fire.
The Gleiwitz Incident (1939): As part of Operation Himmler, a series of covert actions intended to justify Germany's invasion of Poland, Nazi forces staged an attack on the German radio station Sender Gleiwitz. They made it appear as though Polish forces had carried out the attack, thus providing a pretext for Germany to initiate World War II by invading Poland.
The Lavon Affair (1954): This was a failed Israeli covert operation in Egypt known as Operation Susannah. Israeli military intelligence planted bombs in Egyptian, American, and British-owned civilian targets, hoping to blame Arab militants. The aim was to create a climate of instability and compel British military intervention in Egypt. The plan was exposed, leading to a political scandal in Israel.
The Gulf of Tonkin Incident (1964): This involved two separate confrontations between naval forces of the United States and North Vietnam in the Gulf of Tonkin. The second reported attack on U.S. ships led to the U.S. Congress passing the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which granted President Lyndon B. Johnson broad war powers in Vietnam. Later evidence suggested that the second attack might not have occurred, leading to speculation that it was exaggerated or fabricated to justify increased U.S. involvement in Vietnam.
Operation Northwoods (1962, Proposed): This was a proposed false flag operation against American citizens that was never carried out. It was drafted by the U.S. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff. The plans included simulated terrorist attacks within the U.S. and against U.S. military and civilian targets, which would be falsely attributed to the Cuban government to justify a military intervention against Cuba.
Other examples: The Mukden Incident (1931), Operation Ajax (1953), Operation Greif (1944), The Marco Polo Bridge Incident (1937), The Manchurian Incident (1931), The Zinoviev Letter (1924), The Shelling of Mainila (1939)
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[ 0.21 ms ] story [ 21.8 ms ] threadThe Reichstag Fire (1933): This pivotal event in Nazi Germany involved the burning of the German parliament building. The Nazis blamed the fire on communists and used it as a pretext to arrest political opponents and consolidate power. However, there has been ongoing debate over whether the Nazis themselves orchestrated the fire.
The Gleiwitz Incident (1939): As part of Operation Himmler, a series of covert actions intended to justify Germany's invasion of Poland, Nazi forces staged an attack on the German radio station Sender Gleiwitz. They made it appear as though Polish forces had carried out the attack, thus providing a pretext for Germany to initiate World War II by invading Poland.
The Lavon Affair (1954): This was a failed Israeli covert operation in Egypt known as Operation Susannah. Israeli military intelligence planted bombs in Egyptian, American, and British-owned civilian targets, hoping to blame Arab militants. The aim was to create a climate of instability and compel British military intervention in Egypt. The plan was exposed, leading to a political scandal in Israel.
The Gulf of Tonkin Incident (1964): This involved two separate confrontations between naval forces of the United States and North Vietnam in the Gulf of Tonkin. The second reported attack on U.S. ships led to the U.S. Congress passing the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which granted President Lyndon B. Johnson broad war powers in Vietnam. Later evidence suggested that the second attack might not have occurred, leading to speculation that it was exaggerated or fabricated to justify increased U.S. involvement in Vietnam.
Operation Northwoods (1962, Proposed): This was a proposed false flag operation against American citizens that was never carried out. It was drafted by the U.S. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff. The plans included simulated terrorist attacks within the U.S. and against U.S. military and civilian targets, which would be falsely attributed to the Cuban government to justify a military intervention against Cuba.
Other examples: The Mukden Incident (1931), Operation Ajax (1953), Operation Greif (1944), The Marco Polo Bridge Incident (1937), The Manchurian Incident (1931), The Zinoviev Letter (1924), The Shelling of Mainila (1939)