The war is certainly an existential threat to the Russian regime and to Putin personally, though not to Russia as a concept. See also Afghanistan, which was a huge contributor to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Like, in 20 years there will almost certainly be a country called Russia, but it does seem _fairly_ likely that Putin will end up being very careless around a staircase or window or accidentally stabbing himself to death while shaving or whatever. Failed dictators get very accident-prone around such things.
Also, the US narrative is that Russia wants to invade all Europe but at the same time the narrative is they lost 87% of the troops. One to stoke fear, the other to keep Ukraine in the proxy fight.
Eh? I mean, that's just reality. Generally, if you're a dictator, and you screw up sufficiently, you either end up in exile (not a great option for Vlad for a variety of reasons) or you get murdered. That is how it works; occupational hazard. The war is _absolutely_ an existential threat to him personally.
The headline is a bit confusing as to just what's being counted. From deeper in the article:
Of the 360,000 troops that made up Russia’s pre-invasion ground force, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment.
In other words, the number of its casualties is 87% the number of people it had on the first day of the war. It's not actually 87% of those original 360,000 individuals.
The number of Russian troops in Ukraine is nonetheless larger than that original 360k count. It might be around 500,000, though estimates have enormous error bars. Russia has a draft, and is recruiting from inside prisons.
So even with a number that staggering, the war is a long way from over.
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[ 2.0 ms ] story [ 26.8 ms ] threadLike, in 20 years there will almost certainly be a country called Russia, but it does seem _fairly_ likely that Putin will end up being very careless around a staircase or window or accidentally stabbing himself to death while shaving or whatever. Failed dictators get very accident-prone around such things.
Also, the US narrative is that Russia wants to invade all Europe but at the same time the narrative is they lost 87% of the troops. One to stoke fear, the other to keep Ukraine in the proxy fight.
Of the 360,000 troops that made up Russia’s pre-invasion ground force, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment.
In other words, the number of its casualties is 87% the number of people it had on the first day of the war. It's not actually 87% of those original 360,000 individuals.
The number of Russian troops in Ukraine is nonetheless larger than that original 360k count. It might be around 500,000, though estimates have enormous error bars. Russia has a draft, and is recruiting from inside prisons.
So even with a number that staggering, the war is a long way from over.