Isn't that roughly what you would expect anyway? 50% of the population is below the median. Take a separate population and measure them against the overall median, and simply through statistical chance, a good number of those samples will have an average slower than the median.
they were out doing whatever their parents were doing and/or people were visiting... they missed almost a whole year of that, and even "post-pandemic" people are sometimes more hesitant about being inside public or crowded spaces like they were previously (especially say, if you have an unvaccinated 5 month old)
Many parents use tablets/phones as pacifiers at restaurants / similar venues. If you weren't judging them for using technological pacifier, you'd probably be judging them for bringing a noisy kid into a restaurant.
It's quite possible that the kid rarely gets to use a phone at home where it's acceptable to act like a kid.
I don’t think that a parent’s desire to go to a particular restaurant at a particular time justifies using mind-numbing pacifiers on their kids. I say this as a parent of young children. We solve this by taking our kids to appropriate venues at appropriate times.
My first was six weeks old when lockdown hit. She spent nearly the first two years of her life with just my wife and I.
We always resolved to speak to her as an adult would and only used YouTube videos which encouraged speech and some signing (look up Miss Rachel to get an idea).
She's now way ahead of most of her peers in terms of speech. I'm sometimes still surprised with how she manages to communicate with us.
that is great (no sarcasm) - but I also don't think it is unusual for a <2 year old to spend almost all time with just one or both of the parents. I think the kids that had already in school that were the most affected.
Very similar experience here. My daughter got a ton of 1:1 time during lockdowns and now speaks a lot more articulately than other kids her age (sometimes even a few years older). I suspect this study is more about how people used the lockdown to either spend more or less time with their kids.
My daughter was born 6 months into the lockdowns. At her 15 months checkup, the doctors were seriously concerned that she wasn't speaking at least 5 words (she had 3 down). They believed that she might have trouble hearing and wanted to refer her for more testing. I told them that her hearing was just fine and that testing wasn't necessary. "How could you be sure?", they argued. I told them that she has no problem paying attention and reacting to her dad and I when spoken to. I told them that she has favourite songs that she loved to dance to and that she could hear them when the music was being played in different rooms, let alone different floors in our house. They weren't convinced and started gaslighting me into enrolling her into testing, telling me that the wait to see any specialist was at least 3 months and the longer I waited the worst the issue would be and that my daughters ability to hear properly was solely resting on my decision to not to refer her. I then asked the doctor and nurse if they had children (which I knew they didn't, just by observing how they interacted with my daughter). They confirmed that they didn't and I proceeded to tell them that my parental instinct trumps their authority on the issue.
Long story short, she doesn't shut up now. She's leaps and bounds ahead of her peers when it comes to vocabulary and she loves music and dancing.
While obvious at the time to anyone with a brain, it's now beyond obvious that lockdowns were an abject disaster. Massive economic damage that's continuing to linger, irreversible damage to children and an entire lost generation raised during the lockdowns.
How could anyone but the most hysterical hypochondriacs still support them?
they empirically saved lives and were based on the best available scientific recommendations at the time. Their factual basis is not a matter of opinion.
Whether the opportunity cost of risking lives outweighed the cost of re-opening, second lockdowns, etc. is a whole different topic, but if you're speaking to the first "two week lockdown" then it is no question.
further, if your last question is not rhetorical, I support them in retrospect because I view things from an apolitical lens and think it was the best attempt at a societal cooperation to save lives. Yes, there were negative results, but there were also overflowing hospitals in 99.9% of the country
> there were also overflowing hospitals in 99.9% of the country
The hysteria over "overflowing hospitals" was mostly due to people not understanding the base rate of hospital occupancy, or how hospitals account for occupancy limits in general.
In reality, utilization of the medical system collapsed because people were scared to go to the hospital for routine medicine. Whether that was net positive or negative depends on how iatrogenic risks interact with the selection effects in play at the time.
Yes, the hospitals were quieter during the initial lockdown. However peak COVID deaths and hospital overload was in 2022. Our local hospital experienced 2 nurse suicides in 2022.
If you wanted to protect hospitals, then why were 15 year olds locked down and not primarily old and obese people (the vast, vast majority of the risk).
15 years old took the brunt of the lockdowns yet had almost zero risk from the virus.
Why is that? Shouldn't the people at actual risk of the virus shelter themselves?
The difference in risk between a healthy 15 year old and an obese 85 year old is orders of magnitude different. The virus might as well be the common cold to the former.
>but there were also overflowing hospitals in 99.9% of the country
Italian and New York hospitals were overwhelmed because a) both places put sick elderly into old age homes. (42% of US COVID19 deaths in 2020 occurred in old age homes!) b) Like elsewhere early on, doctors put everyone serious onto ventilators in a mistaken belief that they should treat patients like they do ARDS cases based on blood oxygen levels. This damaged healthy lung sacs and caused long-term dependence on mechanical respiration that doctors found almost impossible to wean patients from, and other side effects like deep vein thrombosis; Nick Cordero is an example. (This article from April 2020 <https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...> was completely vindicated in retrospect.) Neither happened after the first few months.
And no, none of those field hospitals built in parking lots and stadiums everywhere were used. In Wales, for example, Millennium Stadium was converted into a temporary field hospital with 300 beds and capacity to expand to 2000 beds. It was such a big deal that a public contest was held to name it Dragon's Heart Hospital <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon%27s_Heart_Hospital>. However, said hospital never had more than 46 patients at one time, and was closed in six weeks for lack of use!
Even in NYC, which really did see overloaded hospitals briefly in March-April 2020, USNS Comfort treated a total of 179 patients. USNS Mercy treated a total of 77 patients in LA.
They're not lost, they're still here. We could be making efforts as a country to help them catch up and at least make the gap smaller... it's not impossible.
People love to decry the lockdowns, but we knew next to nothing about the virus at the time. No vaccines. A million people died in the US died from Covid.
What would have been the acceptable trade-off for you? would 2 million deaths be fine if kids were in school? that's not the kind of math I'm comfortable doing.
This claim is absurd and invented. Firstly, it takes two seconds to discover that the reporting requirements for Covid "deaths" do not say that Covid must be the primary cause of death, or even a contributing factor.
Reporting standards stated clearly that anyone who dies and happens to also have Covid can be included as a "Covid death". There are numerous cases of this occurring with people who were already terminally ill, people who had a motorcycle accident and other absurdities.
When the federal government financially incentivizes hospitals and medical institutions to inflate numbers that are loosely monitored, all of them will have their finger on the scale. There's documented evidence.
>we knew next to nothing about the virus at the time
We knew that lockdowns would destroy the economy, destroy the lives of children and irreversibly steal an entire generation. We also knew that Covid affected primarily old and severely unwell people, with obesity and other serious health conditions.
With this in mind, why wasn't the lockdown aimed at the old and the obese, the people who were seriously at risk?
A 15 year old had functionally zero risk yet took the entire brunt of the lockdowns. A 85 year old with obesity has massively inflated risk yet trades nothing off (they've lived their lives already).
Trading the lives of young people to save old people is despicable. When a boat is sinking, the first people off are children. Why weren't children prioritized here?
So how many people do you think really died from covid? 500,000? 100,000? how many more would have died without the lockdowns?
In your eyes, how many more deaths would have been acceptable if the economy would be stronger today?
We spent nearly $2 trillion in Iraq for a decade. 9/11 was the catalyst, and 3,000 people died.
I'm not saying you're wrong for being frustrated.
But to me these are all separate problems. The lockdowns almost certainly provided additional death. I think that's a noble cause. It wasn't only the elderly, even with lockdowns thousand of kids lost parents. No amount of being in school can fix that.
Now where's the $2 trillion for tutoring these kids and helping them catch up? that's what I'm mad about.
I feel a single "deaths" number is not that useful of a metric, and something like "life years lost" would be better. A healthy 20 year old would lose ~60 years; a diabetic obese 60-year old much less. Of course we should take reasonable efforts to protect those more vulnerable to disease, but with more nuanced data like this you can better decide what "reasonable" is.
The funny/not-at-all-funny part is that excess deaths likely underestimates as lockdowns reduce all cause mortality in a lot of other areas. But arguing with these anti-science folks is about as useful as slamming my head into the wall, so I'm out.
It's 2023 and we're still making attempts at discrediting covid deaths? Wow.
The economy was not "destroyed" nor were childrens' lives.
You know what was destroyed? One of my loved one's sense of smell. And it was definitely covid's doing. I could never call that "functionally zero" risk. We're talking one of the few senses people have and it can be gone with no hope. You might not value that much but I don't want to deny anyone their senses.
Trading the lives and senses of anyone to watch numbers go up in a spreadsheet is despicable.
> Trading the lives and senses of anyone to watch numbers go up in a spreadsheet is despicable.
Yet this is what we all do every day, from traffic to food safety, to public spending on health care, etc.
These sort of trade-offs exist everywhere. Every single time you take a flight or step in a car you are literally contributing to the death of people. None of this is hugely controversial, except ... in the case of COVID.
And it's not about "numbers", during great economic recessions quality of life does decline, sometimes greatly so. IMHO "destroy the economy", "destroy the lives of children", etc. is hugely overstating matters, but it did have a negative impact on many aspects.
Were lockdowns a good or bad trade-off? You can reasonably disagree on that. But to deny the trade-off exists in the first place is unhelpful.
Please make your substantive points without flamebait or name-calling. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. It's also in your interest because it will make your comments more persuasive.
The statistics for where I live (Wales, UK) show a horrifying post-COVID gap in school attendance for socioeconomically deprived families. We have probably lost the cultural norm that all kids at least attend school.
Yep, the investor class got $5 trillion, but regular people in the aggregate got a raw deal.
If the Fed hadn't printed all this money, the investor class would have fought harder to open up the schools and restore Western society. But they were just fine sitting sitting at home counting their non universal generational income.
It’s weird thinking the public policy measures enacted during the pandemic were designed to make wealthy people more wealthy and increase consumption of goods and services.
We had a chance to use the pandemic to fortify our society against future challenges. Instead we’ve made our communities more fragile and more vulnerable to future shocks.
Indeed. No conspiracy theory is needed - people took every opportunity to acquire power and wealth, and the already powerful and wealthy were the most equipped to do so.
Unfortunately, due to the way this study is designed, there is no way to separate the effects of lockdown from the effects of the pandemic itself. It would be interested to compare areas with mandatory lockdown policies to areas without, but that’s not what they did here.
I have a lockdown baby, whom is 3.5 years old, now. Her language skills are great. However, they seemed to experience exponential growth, roughly one month after she started going to public school.
49 comments
[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 115 ms ] thread"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something."
"Don't be snarky."
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
It's quite possible that the kid rarely gets to use a phone at home where it's acceptable to act like a kid.
We always resolved to speak to her as an adult would and only used YouTube videos which encouraged speech and some signing (look up Miss Rachel to get an idea).
She's now way ahead of most of her peers in terms of speech. I'm sometimes still surprised with how she manages to communicate with us.
Just my n=1 experience.
How could anyone but the most hysterical hypochondriacs still support them?
Whether the opportunity cost of risking lives outweighed the cost of re-opening, second lockdowns, etc. is a whole different topic, but if you're speaking to the first "two week lockdown" then it is no question.
That's a statement of faith.
>Their factual basis is not a matter of opinion.
Another statement of faith.
Aren’t all decisions based on probability and statistics (science and medicine) “faith” based?
"Best" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence. A more objective description might be "most widely expressed".
The hysteria over "overflowing hospitals" was mostly due to people not understanding the base rate of hospital occupancy, or how hospitals account for occupancy limits in general.
In reality, utilization of the medical system collapsed because people were scared to go to the hospital for routine medicine. Whether that was net positive or negative depends on how iatrogenic risks interact with the selection effects in play at the time.
15 years old took the brunt of the lockdowns yet had almost zero risk from the virus.
Why is that? Shouldn't the people at actual risk of the virus shelter themselves?
The difference in risk between a healthy 15 year old and an obese 85 year old is orders of magnitude different. The virus might as well be the common cold to the former.
Italian and New York hospitals were overwhelmed because a) both places put sick elderly into old age homes. (42% of US COVID19 deaths in 2020 occurred in old age homes!) b) Like elsewhere early on, doctors put everyone serious onto ventilators in a mistaken belief that they should treat patients like they do ARDS cases based on blood oxygen levels. This damaged healthy lung sacs and caused long-term dependence on mechanical respiration that doctors found almost impossible to wean patients from, and other side effects like deep vein thrombosis; Nick Cordero is an example. (This article from April 2020 <https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...> was completely vindicated in retrospect.) Neither happened after the first few months.
And no, none of those field hospitals built in parking lots and stadiums everywhere were used. In Wales, for example, Millennium Stadium was converted into a temporary field hospital with 300 beds and capacity to expand to 2000 beds. It was such a big deal that a public contest was held to name it Dragon's Heart Hospital <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon%27s_Heart_Hospital>. However, said hospital never had more than 46 patients at one time, and was closed in six weeks for lack of use!
Even in NYC, which really did see overloaded hospitals briefly in March-April 2020, USNS Comfort treated a total of 179 patients. USNS Mercy treated a total of 77 patients in LA.
People love to decry the lockdowns, but we knew next to nothing about the virus at the time. No vaccines. A million people died in the US died from Covid.
What would have been the acceptable trade-off for you? would 2 million deaths be fine if kids were in school? that's not the kind of math I'm comfortable doing.
This claim is absurd and invented. Firstly, it takes two seconds to discover that the reporting requirements for Covid "deaths" do not say that Covid must be the primary cause of death, or even a contributing factor.
Reporting standards stated clearly that anyone who dies and happens to also have Covid can be included as a "Covid death". There are numerous cases of this occurring with people who were already terminally ill, people who had a motorcycle accident and other absurdities.
When the federal government financially incentivizes hospitals and medical institutions to inflate numbers that are loosely monitored, all of them will have their finger on the scale. There's documented evidence.
>we knew next to nothing about the virus at the time
We knew that lockdowns would destroy the economy, destroy the lives of children and irreversibly steal an entire generation. We also knew that Covid affected primarily old and severely unwell people, with obesity and other serious health conditions.
With this in mind, why wasn't the lockdown aimed at the old and the obese, the people who were seriously at risk?
A 15 year old had functionally zero risk yet took the entire brunt of the lockdowns. A 85 year old with obesity has massively inflated risk yet trades nothing off (they've lived their lives already).
Trading the lives of young people to save old people is despicable. When a boat is sinking, the first people off are children. Why weren't children prioritized here?
In your eyes, how many more deaths would have been acceptable if the economy would be stronger today?
We spent nearly $2 trillion in Iraq for a decade. 9/11 was the catalyst, and 3,000 people died.
I'm not saying you're wrong for being frustrated.
But to me these are all separate problems. The lockdowns almost certainly provided additional death. I think that's a noble cause. It wasn't only the elderly, even with lockdowns thousand of kids lost parents. No amount of being in school can fix that.
Now where's the $2 trillion for tutoring these kids and helping them catch up? that's what I'm mad about.
We now look back at excess mortality to know how many extra people died: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
The economy was not "destroyed" nor were childrens' lives.
You know what was destroyed? One of my loved one's sense of smell. And it was definitely covid's doing. I could never call that "functionally zero" risk. We're talking one of the few senses people have and it can be gone with no hope. You might not value that much but I don't want to deny anyone their senses.
Trading the lives and senses of anyone to watch numbers go up in a spreadsheet is despicable.
Yet this is what we all do every day, from traffic to food safety, to public spending on health care, etc.
These sort of trade-offs exist everywhere. Every single time you take a flight or step in a car you are literally contributing to the death of people. None of this is hugely controversial, except ... in the case of COVID.
And it's not about "numbers", during great economic recessions quality of life does decline, sometimes greatly so. IMHO "destroy the economy", "destroy the lives of children", etc. is hugely overstating matters, but it did have a negative impact on many aspects.
Were lockdowns a good or bad trade-off? You can reasonably disagree on that. But to deny the trade-off exists in the first place is unhelpful.
Especially from poorer families, that have several kids but didn't have enough rooms for pandemic remote schooling.
If the Fed hadn't printed all this money, the investor class would have fought harder to open up the schools and restore Western society. But they were just fine sitting sitting at home counting their non universal generational income.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
We had a chance to use the pandemic to fortify our society against future challenges. Instead we’ve made our communities more fragile and more vulnerable to future shocks.