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> The study reveals that novel technology attracts early adopters, 'techies'. The 'normies', for lack of a better term, will watch what 'techies' do before committing because moving costs are higher for non-technical users.

Yeah well, this is not what happens with social networks, like, at all. The idea that somehow 'techies' were going to draw critical mass to the Fediverse doesn't sound plausible to me.

I think there's an argument that it has happened with the 2022 Twitter migration. Mastodon front facing app fumbled the opportunity a bit but that doesn't necessarily mean it will never get it again. Twitter is still rotting. It's probably due for another exodus.

Or, not it's hard to say. But not impossible at all. Perhaps even likely.