Despite all the saber rattling and meddling by China the people made their own decision, effectively giving a big middle finger to Dictator Xi.
As a casual watcher of Taiwanese politics it's obvious that this is something they deeply care about and wouldn't give up easily. The campaigns were vibrant, the election itself was conducted in an orderly fashion and people voted in droves. It's fundamentally incompatible with how things operate across the strait and the people couldn't be more different, especially the younger generations. The Taiwan the CCP wanted is dying, if not already dead.
Yep. As an Australian in Taipei today, what struck me most was the effort involved. People have to go to the physical voting location where they are registered, which for many can mean a long trip. Traffic was subsequently awful today, driving out to Taoyuan to visit a relative ended up being a 5 hour round trip, double the usual.
People go to the effort even though voting is not compulsory - unlike where I'm from. There is also no postal or early voting. Despite all this, the turnout is 70ish percent.
Try imagining that people themselves can earnestly want to live under democracy. Then you can start to untangle that broad list with some shreds of nuance.
Ukraine only feigned their interest in democracic but they didn't want it hard enough? that's why they're at war ? The same mentality that led to the iraq warn is still so pervasive it's disheartening.
China doesn't elect Taiwan's leaders so I don't really see why we should care if China sees Lai as a troublemaker. China likes to say that other countries should stay out of its domestic politics. Well China should stay out of Taiwan's domestic politics as well.
The strong language from China is all preparation for the planned invasion. “What are you talking about? This is a rogue province. We’ve been warning you for years”
They even have a deadline.
If you somehow think it won’t happen it’s you living in a dreamworld.
Where did I ever say the risk of China's invasion should ever be ignored? You and I and anyone honest should laugh at the dreamworld their foreign policy lives in (i.e. the idea that the PRC and ROC aren't two separate countries), but we should take their delusions very seriously. Taiwan should continue to build their defense and their international relationships to try to keep China from invading. No one paying attention is under any illusions as to the true point of China's propaganda.
It's quite unlikely to happen for the same reason it hasn't happened for the last century. It's militarily hard to do because you'd have to land tens of thousands of troops and it's hard to get them over the sea.
The last waterborne invasion of that kind of scale was D-Day and if anything things would be tricker now that anti ship missiles are rather effective.
I mean the communists have wanted to take over Taiwan since 1949 when they took over the rest of China but the sea remains a barrier. It's quite possible that rather than Taiwan falling to the commies, it will be the mainland that gets taken over by democracy.
My worry is that China believes that Taiwanese are weak and will surrender immediately. This is the impression I get from China supporters online. They also talk about Taiwan capitulating from bombardment or blockade, but those have never worked in the past.
I think Taiwan needs to show more preparation and resolve. Maybe this election will change things and they will spend more on military. Mostly by stockpiling shells, missiles, mines, and food. Taiwan has advantage that they can build own missiles since few will sell to them.
Youd do well in pressuring your own country to recognize Taiwan as a nation - very few do. Pleasing China trumps ethics for most nations at the end of the day, apparently.
Honestly I think at this point supporting Taiwan's defense is more important. The entire world could be unified in officially acknowledging the ROC, but it is military and economics that deter any Chinese invasion. Don't get me wrong, I do believe that the world should be less duplicitous and honestly acknowledge the ROC, but that alone won't really be much protection for Taiwan.
This sounds like you’re downplaying the lack of US recognition. I’m not sure what tantrum you’re imagining, but if it’s for the sake of trade relations I don’t think it’s worth being complicit in denying sovereignty.
I agree in principle, but the only thing that keeps China from invading Taiwan is the ability of Taiwan to defend itself (with international help). Explicit US (or broader world) recognition of the ROC doesn't mean China wouldn't invade anyway. Hell even if China would officially recognize the ROC as legitimate, that wouldn't mean they wouldn't invade in the future (they have no problem ignoring past treaties when it suits their interests). This is all just a political game by China to present a narrative that bends reality to pretend they're not invading and taking over a country that neither threatens them or wants to be ruled by them. So while I agree with you it's pretty disgraceful of the US and other countries to advantage themselves through trade and cooperation with Taiwan without officially recognizing their sovereignty, I still think the most important would be if more countries at least supported them in their defense against Chinese aggression.
Exactly. The US _does_ recognize the ROC as the legitimate government of Taiwan it just chooses not to _say_ so. Considering trade, tourism, and immigration policies, it's quite clear that the US treats the ROC as a more legitimate government of Taiwan than it does the PRC of China.
The TRA provides for recognition of Taiwan, but explicitly not for diplomatic relations at the full Ambassador/Embassy level. Instead of an Embassy for example, there is a liaison office. You and I might think of it as identical to an Embassy, but its a bit of legal sleight of hand from the 1970s to keep China feel respected and make the Taiwanese feel happy. If you look at official photos of visits you never see the TW or US flags together for example like you would do if, say, a diplomat from the US visited France.
Taiwan feels like one of those cases where a little ambiguity is actually safer for all concerned than a clear position. You ideally want a situation where the mainland can saber rattle occasionally to keep their domestic audience happy and where Taiwan can sometimes make it sound like an independent state, but neither moves down the track any further.
An invasion attempt by China or a unilateral independence motion by Taiwan would be a disaster for all three parties, the Taiwanese, mainland China and the US.
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 62.5 ms ] threadAs a casual watcher of Taiwanese politics it's obvious that this is something they deeply care about and wouldn't give up easily. The campaigns were vibrant, the election itself was conducted in an orderly fashion and people voted in droves. It's fundamentally incompatible with how things operate across the strait and the people couldn't be more different, especially the younger generations. The Taiwan the CCP wanted is dying, if not already dead.
People go to the effort even though voting is not compulsory - unlike where I'm from. There is also no postal or early voting. Despite all this, the turnout is 70ish percent.
If you somehow think it won’t happen it’s you living in a dreamworld.
The last waterborne invasion of that kind of scale was D-Day and if anything things would be tricker now that anti ship missiles are rather effective.
I mean the communists have wanted to take over Taiwan since 1949 when they took over the rest of China but the sea remains a barrier. It's quite possible that rather than Taiwan falling to the commies, it will be the mainland that gets taken over by democracy.
I think Taiwan needs to show more preparation and resolve. Maybe this election will change things and they will spend more on military. Mostly by stockpiling shells, missiles, mines, and food. Taiwan has advantage that they can build own missiles since few will sell to them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan
Taiwan feels like one of those cases where a little ambiguity is actually safer for all concerned than a clear position. You ideally want a situation where the mainland can saber rattle occasionally to keep their domestic audience happy and where Taiwan can sometimes make it sound like an independent state, but neither moves down the track any further.
An invasion attempt by China or a unilateral independence motion by Taiwan would be a disaster for all three parties, the Taiwanese, mainland China and the US.