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Ask HN: Is microfinance a smart way to park your savings?

6 points by etal ↗ HN
Here's the post that prompted me:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/12/is-micro-credit.html

In the context of PG's essay "Be Good" (http://www.paulgraham.com/good.html), this makes a lot of sense. Not in terms of fleecing the world's poor, but as a smart investment that happens to be nearly indistiguishable from charity.

At the moment I'm still a little averse to the stock market, but I do have some savings and I'd like to put some portion of it to better use (no major financial commitments on the horizon). These organizations piqued my interest:

Kiva -- http://www.kiva.org/

United Prosperity -- http://unitedprosperity.org/

Silicon Valley Microfinance Network -- http://svmn.net/

Anyone here have some experience with these groups, or other microfinance ventures?

7 comments

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noodle
well, it depends on what you're trying to do.

microfinance charity-type organizations have little risk, but no matter what, you're not really making any money on your investments. you'd make more from an online savings account.

if you want to do some good, those are good options. if you want to grow your savings, they're not that good.

etal
I'm looking to strike a balance, mostly. If I can match the 3.3% my savings account pays and do some good in the world, I'm happy. Currently I fire off the occasional small check to environmental groups; I consider that a good enough investment. But to commit a significant chunk of my savings, I'd want to see some return.
theantidote
Maybe invest $100-200 in microloans but Kiva at least doesn't pay you any interest on the loans. I don't know about the other two organizations. These are different from charities in that they aren't tax deductible so if that's important for you then look elsewhere.

I heard some advice on the radio the other day: invest your age in bonds. So a 40 year old would put 40% of their invesments into bonds. Bonds are slow but reliable sources of income and are basically the same as a loan to a large corporation. Try that if you're looking to back loans and earn interest.

vijayr
I've given 10 loans so far at Kiva, and 3 have been totally repaid (others are in various stages of repayment). I don't think you should look at microfinance as investment options. That said, there are a few micro finance organizations that give out a small percent of interest. Microplace is one example. But as noodle says, an online savings account would fetch you more.
kirse
At the moment I'm still a little averse to the stock market

You're smart to have recognized that you need to diversify, but don't fear the stock market! How much of this applies to you depends on your age (I'm 22), but this is when most people should be setting aside a little money for higher-risk investments. Risk doesn't mean invest into a poorly-performing company and start praying, but try to find a couple profitable micro-caps or small-caps and stick $500-$1k or so into them. Personally, I look for foreign micro-caps that run great profit margins and make physical products that people need (primarily healthcare / transportation). Patented products are even better.

Not only that, but right now there are plenty of large-cap companies that have lost a lot of value not because they're bad companies or losing money, but because everyone is simply dumping stocks out of fear.

Either way, do your research on the balance sheets + income statements, take a good look at how they well they approach their core competencies/products and make an informed decision. Regardless, the job losses and increasing foreclosures have only begun to take effect, so don't be surprised when 2009 brings the market lower and opens up even more investment opportunity.

etal
Very true. My best investment so far has been Illumina a few years ago, which I found because they were blanketing the job boards. Why hire like mad unless you expect to blow up soon? However, I'm not really willing to be a full-time investor at the moment. Index funds and a high-yield savings account do a good enough job of keeping up with the market for very little intellectual investment.

Regarding high-risk, high-yield investing, the Kelly criterion comes to mind. It says that given some bias in the outcome of some bet, and a return proportional to the expected result (without the bias), there's an optimal portion of your principal to wager in each round to get the best yield over time. And it's surprisingly low -- in the case of a coin toss rigged 51% in favor of heads, for example, you should only bet 2% of your principal. If you go all in each round, even though the odds are in your favor, you will probably lose everything.