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I would expect PopOS to be on this list. Although I really dislike the UI and just install Plasma.
I personally would recommend Fedora over all of these. Easy installer, first time setup. Lots of friendly handholding and ease of use features. Fedora Workstation for those that are ok with an OSX style UI flow. Fedora KDE for a more Windows like UI flow.
I'm an Arch fanboy, but after all these years Fedora is still what I install on machines that I need to use for real work. It's been consistently rock solid for me when it matters most.
I’m worried about investing in Fedora after some of the moves Red Hat has made over the past several years. Such as pulling the rug out from under CentOS, and putting their source behind a paywall (along with most of their knowledge base).
I fell in love with Fedora (Gnome) hard, it's really the most polished and stable Linux experience so far and I feel stupid for being reluctant about the Redhat association. However, because of the not very friendly process to get non-free codecs and software, I think it sadly can't be considered beginner friendly. Just because of that. Everything else is literally perfect. If you are fed up with another distro and know your Linux well, try Fedora! All glory, no pain.
I will mostly agree with you on this. It is a shame it's not easier. But few distros are much different of the big ones. Legal reasons probably.

At least you get friendly popups, and clicks to download from the software center. Worst case adding rpmfusion which is fairly easy these days but agree it's extra steps.

Yeah, it's some strict licensing issue, I think.

Adding the rpmfusion repo for non-free codecs as instructed, requires you to visit a very 90s looking website and (by default dnf config) bypassing a signature check for that locally installed rpm package, last time I checked. It's "just" one command line action, and you get it via TLS at least, but honestly it sets a bad practice precedent and beginners certainly are not aware of what they are doing. For such a basic, universally needed feature no less! In Ubuntu it's a checkmark somewhere during installation, nothing alike.

As someone quite experienced with Linux, but new to dnf/rpm, I found the process off-putting, and only paranoid curiosity made me aware of the signature issue. If you configure dnf to always require signature checks, including local package installation, you need to first import the Redhat rpm keys into dnf's keyring to continue properly, I think. (Or use rpm instead... the keys are actually on the system already). Needless to say, not exactly optimal at all lol

And that's really a pity, as Fedora is such a damn great out of the box experience, otherwise. (I also do like dnf as a package manager a lot.)

That's why I tend to use derivatives that take the clean Fedora and enable the same defaults.

Bazzite/UBlue/Project Bluefin for Silverblue derivatives (it's what I use)

Ultramarine Linux or Nobara for non-Immutable.

So, the state of the Linux Desktop ecosystem is just like it was when I abandoned it 20 years ago, but now with drop shadows.
It worked well 20 years ago if you had reasonably supported hardware and don't install stuff that got released 24 hours ago. The same is true now.
I think there is a big difference now, and that’s Electron apps. Love it hate it, Electron has brought a lot of commercial applications to Linux that would have otherwise never seen a native release.

I installed Linux for the first time around 20 years ago, and my more recent usage in the last year was significant more usable for the average person who wants some of those mainstream apps and doesn’t want to spend time finding the best Linux alternative.

Now there is great support for Windows games thanks to Proton/Wine.
I actually agree with that. Wine was really shaky 20 years ago and now the Steam Deck works wonderfully. Can't deny the progress there.

I was mostly referring to a "desktop experience" though. All windows look different, all buttons are placed in different places, applications feel not integrated, proprietary drivers have the competitive advantage on mainstream desktop OSes, any modern work tools are either unsupported (Excel) or barely supported (like online call software supporting a "web version" for Linux but having native clients for the rest), etc.

We can blame, I dunno, "Zoom" to pick an example, but as a company what they actually should aim to build for? The experience is very different between a distro and another, with no consistency and no clear leader.

And I'm not picky, I loved KDE 3 which was terribly ugly but incredibly useful. But as soon as my work stopped being purely "basement programmer" and I was forced a KDE 4 upgrade, it was a big nope, and I don't see a real lot of improvement from there 20 years after.

I agree with Linux Mint. It is the only distro I can just honestly recommend people. If I install it on someone's computer, I have less maintenance head ache. Down the line, if they wanna move on to something, this provides a great playground as well.

But I don't recommend Ubuntu or ChromeOS for people. Ubuntu break a lot and with snap, it is more resource hungry.

And The whole point is moot if you're going to replace Microsoft Windows with Google's ChromeOS. Why are you moving to Linux in the first place? If you are doing it for tech, then this list is not for you anyways. You should be able to navigate without it.

For people looking for more than just recommendations, I have written a distro recommendation framework. It's a brain dump of all the info I have accumulated over the last decade using Linux. This way you can make a better choice if you didn't like my picks - https://www.unsungnovelty.org/posts/01/2024/a-linux-distro-r...

There was some really useful in your post. Thanks.

For Arch, I highly recommend EndeavourOS as my experience with it has been excellent, it comes with minimal but practical and robust configuration out of the box, and the community has been great as well.

I have only heard good things about EndeavourOS. So far. So do use it. But since I haven't used it at all, I can't recommend it. :)

Also, I was burned by Manjaro which I used for several years, I rather use the Arch Linux directly than EndeavourOS. EndeavourOS is an abstraction which adds possible bugs. But I do think if you're new to the way of Arch, EndeavourOS is a good playground.

I really want to try Linux and escape the Apple ecosystem. The main things holding me back are two things.

1. I use Raycast(an alternative to spotlight) that allows me to search files, open applications, open browser bookmarks, chat with GPT 3.5/4 instantly all with my keyboard. They only work on MacOS and I don’t know how to attain those levels of personal productivity on Linux

2. Good design. I do not like the design of WindowsOS at all and really enjoy Apple’s design in general. My design tastes lean to towards minimal, dark mode, colorful, “rounded corners”. I am looking for an OS that would be designed like apps like Linear, Notion, Obsidian, etc.

If there’s a disro out there that can solve these two things. I would love to switch to Linux

I’ve seen Raycast adjacent apps for Linux, but I don’t know what the current go-to all the kids are using these days. I used Quicksilver on OS X back in the day, which kind of defined the category I think. But these days I try to keep it simple.

Elementary OS seems to be trying to solve for the design issue, but it’s not as polished as macOS and there are still all the 3rd party apps to contend with. I’ve tried it, and it didn’t have me considering a full time switch.

https://elementary.io/

For me, one of the big things keeping me on macOS is the sync between devices. 20 years ago it seemed much easier to move to Linux, because I didn’t have to worry about my contacts, calendar, etc being in sync everywhere. Having all that stuff, and the handoff between devices, just work is a huge benefit. There are probably ways to sync various things between iOS and Linux, but then researching all the options, setting it up, and keeping up on it all, becomes a hobby. That’s not a hobby I want at this stage of my life.

I think you would like the modern default Gnome desktop. Your needs in regard to search are built-in, except for the GPT stuff. In Gnome you can almost always just type away to navigate by search, without memorizing shortcuts. It's really great! There may be extensions for your "AI" needs, but I don't know for sure. However, Gnome is still sometimes limited by the development status of basic apps and services like mail, calendar and online accounts. Ironically, mostly affecting free standards like CalDAV, while Google Mail and Exchange integration is there. Also some common UI tweaks like having a dock, are hidden away as extensions.

Apple made it quite painful to share with iOS devices and access iCloud services outside the Apple ecosystem. So if you got an iPhone, that's gonna be mildly annoying.

I'd say try Fedora in a virtual machine and see for yourself!

Yea ChromeOS is not an OS for people wanting to move to "linux".. basically if all you want to do is like run a browser and do basic things sure.. but if you want a system to learn about linux and do some fun stuff with your system, pick something like Mint.
I've been a Linux user for 15 years. This works fine for me and [some of] my family. I still can't fathom regular folks using any flavor of it. Chrome and Android obviously disregarded.