I will bet you ten thousand dollars that spacex doesn't file bankruptcy within the next decade. If you want to take the bet, send me your contact information.
He specifically said bankruptcy, so that's the criteria. I'm dead serious BTW, I see it as easy money. I don't usually tell shit talkers to put their money where their mouth is, but the parent is so outlandish a tangible reality check is warranted.
Nationalization... I doubt it. America's preference for regulated private development has worked really well so far. Private selloff, so long as the work continues that gave the company value in the first place I don't see that impacting their trajectory. Nonetheless I don't see them doing it for the foreseeable future, they're on track to become the most valuable company in the world (or in the solar system if they succeed) and stewardship by an incumbent conglomerate that couldn't have in their wildest dreams accomplished what spacex has would really hurt their prestige. Musk melting down is not something I'd expect to negatively impact the spacex project either, depending who you ask it's already happened and his companies seem to be doing fine hyperbole aside. Those are all more likely than bankruptcy and not likely to lead to failure of the company or it's goals so I wouldn't want to bet on those one way or another.
> Utter trash. She was spewing out garbage 6 years ago that we would be taking point-to-point rocket transport within a decade. SpaceX has blitzed 2/3 of their public cash to the latest launch which failed 60% of the mission but everyone cheered. Time is ticking to bankruptcy and with it, the wholesale write-off of space missions to the tax payer when support has been increasing.
I think you will find that it was Elon who made that outlandish claim, she merely towed the line in public, as a COO would, knowing full well that such a time-line (often regarded as Elon-time) was entirely absurd and made it clear if you follow her work.
In short, if you think these claims came out of her mouth, you're both uninformed and entirely ignorant to how SpaceX actually operates--Elon may hold the CEO title, and granted himself 'chief engineer' (haha, cosplaying at it's best) but the reality is that it was Gwynne's leadership and key connections and experience within aerospace and auto industry (the two often overlap) that has made SpaceX what it is today.
Bankruptcy? You do realize the war happening in Russia makes Souyuz a no-go forever, along with constant aborts [0], and makes SpaceX the only resupply/crew vehicle, right? Not to mention Starlink, and the Artemis mission(s).
Also, non-IPO SpceX stock go at insane premiums if ever sold by employees (a major part of TC) and company's who hold this stock also trade a high premium just because of this fact.
> If you are shit talking, have some balls, and do so from your real account instead of creating one to hide your arguments behind.
Talk about being entirely out of touch here, to the point the it's really embarrassing.
> key connections and experience within aerospace and auto industry (the two often overlap)
Interesting, can you expand more on how the two overlap? This is the first time I hear about this and it might be that the overlap is happening at a different level than I operate, but I personally have not seen this.
I don’t know if they overlap in general but for SpaceX and Tesla specifically there seems to be significant overlap/sharing of technology. Like development of metal alloys and, if I remember correctly, using Tesla motors as actuators in Starship?
I’m guessing there’s also significant overlap in electronics development. I know the automotive sector has special requirements for chips and electronics, and I’m guessing SpaceX uses some of the same requirements/methodology for in-house electronics design.
> I don’t know if they overlap in general but for SpaceX and Tesla specifically there seems to be significant overlap/sharing of technology. Like development of metal alloys and, if I remember correctly, using Tesla motors as actuators in Starship?
>>I’m guessing there’s also significant overlap in electronics development. I know the automotive sector has special requirements for chips and electronics, and I’m guessing SpaceX uses some of the same requirements/methodology for in-house electronics design.
This, but even companies like Nissan had an aerospace division (it was in Sunnyvale near the AMES NASA location) at one point (prior to the Renault partnership) which it sold to IHI in 2000 [0]. The engineering and tooling fabrication necessary in aerospace often overlaps with auto, obviously to much higher fault tolerances. And lastly companies like Nissan (brand I'm most aligned with despite not owning anything made since Ghosn took over) still dip their toes and make prototypes like these as a PR exercise [1] with partnerships with Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency for example.
Lots of talent floats back and forth at Tesla/SpaceX between the two, the lady that did my interview at SpaceX (Browning) was the same one I met at Tesla in Fremont, and there were a few other heads I recognized that day from Model 3 hell/ramp, too.
I'm sure contractors and sub contractors for specific parts/assembly lines could also overlap, but the truth is I'm not privy to all those finer nuances that go into making a specific bolt or suspension piece but from conversation with people who do those things as suppliers/general contractors it is a common thing.
I lived with an elderly couple in Switzerland who owned a company that repaired assembly lines for bun machines for Burger King but also helped provide specific tasks for the development of the tools/machinery for the Euro-fighter program for example.
PS: Elon is cosplaying an aerospace engineer, the fact you cannot tell is why this narrative around him exists despite him showing how incompetent of a CEO he REALLY is with Twitter/X when he can't take credit for other more talented people's work.It's the leadership and dedication of Shotwell--an actual aerospace engineer with experience in both auto and aerospace--you should really be impressed by regarding SpaceX's success, Elon just funded/paid for it which is a vital but far less impactful part of the equation.
The man doubted Falcon Heavy until the day it launched for FFS!
He doubted the financial viability. Not the technical possibility of Heavy.
The primary reasons why it made sense after was Ariane and Vulcan delays. You can see that several launches which would have gone on Heavy are now on Falcon thanks to better performance (thanks to planning extra performance for recovery)
If Falcon explodes tomorrow no one will blame the engineers
22 comments
[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 48.2 ms ] threadOtoh: https://www.wknofm.org/commentary/2008-03-11/memphis-moment-...
Nationalization... I doubt it. America's preference for regulated private development has worked really well so far. Private selloff, so long as the work continues that gave the company value in the first place I don't see that impacting their trajectory. Nonetheless I don't see them doing it for the foreseeable future, they're on track to become the most valuable company in the world (or in the solar system if they succeed) and stewardship by an incumbent conglomerate that couldn't have in their wildest dreams accomplished what spacex has would really hurt their prestige. Musk melting down is not something I'd expect to negatively impact the spacex project either, depending who you ask it's already happened and his companies seem to be doing fine hyperbole aside. Those are all more likely than bankruptcy and not likely to lead to failure of the company or it's goals so I wouldn't want to bet on those one way or another.
I think you will find that it was Elon who made that outlandish claim, she merely towed the line in public, as a COO would, knowing full well that such a time-line (often regarded as Elon-time) was entirely absurd and made it clear if you follow her work.
In short, if you think these claims came out of her mouth, you're both uninformed and entirely ignorant to how SpaceX actually operates--Elon may hold the CEO title, and granted himself 'chief engineer' (haha, cosplaying at it's best) but the reality is that it was Gwynne's leadership and key connections and experience within aerospace and auto industry (the two often overlap) that has made SpaceX what it is today.
Bankruptcy? You do realize the war happening in Russia makes Souyuz a no-go forever, along with constant aborts [0], and makes SpaceX the only resupply/crew vehicle, right? Not to mention Starlink, and the Artemis mission(s).
Also, non-IPO SpceX stock go at insane premiums if ever sold by employees (a major part of TC) and company's who hold this stock also trade a high premium just because of this fact.
> If you are shit talking, have some balls, and do so from your real account instead of creating one to hide your arguments behind.
Talk about being entirely out of touch here, to the point the it's really embarrassing.
0: https://apnews.com/article/russia-launch-space-station-abort...
Interesting, can you expand more on how the two overlap? This is the first time I hear about this and it might be that the overlap is happening at a different level than I operate, but I personally have not seen this.
I’m guessing there’s also significant overlap in electronics development. I know the automotive sector has special requirements for chips and electronics, and I’m guessing SpaceX uses some of the same requirements/methodology for in-house electronics design.
>>I’m guessing there’s also significant overlap in electronics development. I know the automotive sector has special requirements for chips and electronics, and I’m guessing SpaceX uses some of the same requirements/methodology for in-house electronics design.
This, but even companies like Nissan had an aerospace division (it was in Sunnyvale near the AMES NASA location) at one point (prior to the Renault partnership) which it sold to IHI in 2000 [0]. The engineering and tooling fabrication necessary in aerospace often overlaps with auto, obviously to much higher fault tolerances. And lastly companies like Nissan (brand I'm most aligned with despite not owning anything made since Ghosn took over) still dip their toes and make prototypes like these as a PR exercise [1] with partnerships with Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency for example.
Lots of talent floats back and forth at Tesla/SpaceX between the two, the lady that did my interview at SpaceX (Browning) was the same one I met at Tesla in Fremont, and there were a few other heads I recognized that day from Model 3 hell/ramp, too.
I'm sure contractors and sub contractors for specific parts/assembly lines could also overlap, but the truth is I'm not privy to all those finer nuances that go into making a specific bolt or suspension piece but from conversation with people who do those things as suppliers/general contractors it is a common thing.
I lived with an elderly couple in Switzerland who owned a company that repaired assembly lines for bun machines for Burger King but also helped provide specific tasks for the development of the tools/machinery for the Euro-fighter program for example.
PS: Elon is cosplaying an aerospace engineer, the fact you cannot tell is why this narrative around him exists despite him showing how incompetent of a CEO he REALLY is with Twitter/X when he can't take credit for other more talented people's work.It's the leadership and dedication of Shotwell--an actual aerospace engineer with experience in both auto and aerospace--you should really be impressed by regarding SpaceX's success, Elon just funded/paid for it which is a vital but far less impactful part of the equation.
The man doubted Falcon Heavy until the day it launched for FFS!
0: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2000/02/14/national/nissan...
1: https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/release-db8318528a...
The primary reasons why it made sense after was Ariane and Vulcan delays. You can see that several launches which would have gone on Heavy are now on Falcon thanks to better performance (thanks to planning extra performance for recovery)
If Falcon explodes tomorrow no one will blame the engineers
I misspoke and meant shares:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4488501-how-to-invest-in-sp...