2.6 million subs can't make a 5600 satellite constellation with a 5 year per satellite lifespan profitable. It don't math.
As for the accounting being an "art," I would take a closer look at the HLS contract and the Saudi investment. Is HLS money all going to HLS, or are there overhead shenanigans? The Saudi investment gets them a tiny slice of the cap table at a fabulous valuation. Consenting adults and all that, but there was a reason. ULA is "only" worth 5 billion.
Assume monthly profit per subscriber is $30. Not sure whether that's accurate.
(2.6e6 * $30 * 12 * 5) / 100 = $4.68B.
So far there has been 154 launches to put 5600 satellites in low earth orbit. So if each satellite costs $300k, each launch vehicle and other overhead could cost at most $19.4M. (2.6e6 * $30 * 12 * 5 - 5600 * $300000) / 154.
I think it's plausible SpaceX can launch for about (or even below) that cost ballpark.
There was an article on Forbes in 2022 [0], that states hard costs for launching 50 Starlink satellites into orbit is $15M – including both the launch vehicle and the satellites.
While there are a lot of unknowns, I'd say current Starlink profitability is credible.
Disclaimer: Of course there are a lot of other costs, salaries, facilities, droneship operations, etc. SpaceX is not a public company, so there's not that much information available. This is just a rough ballpark, if that.
In a 2015 presentation to investors, the Elon Musk-founded company initially predicted that Starlink would make $12 billion and $7 billion in operating profit in 2022. SpaceX also projected the division would have 20 million subscribers by the end of 2022, the presentation reveals. Instead, by the end of last year, Starlink only had over 1 million active subscribers. By May 2023, the company reported it had about 1.5 million users; however, CNBC reports Hofeller stated it’s now “well over” that mark.
The same article says WSJ says 2022 revenue was $1.4 billion. It doesn't break out terminal sales from subscriptions. But, roughly, that works out to $3.6 billion gross for 2.6 million subs.
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[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 24.3 ms ] threadAs for the accounting being an "art," I would take a closer look at the HLS contract and the Saudi investment. Is HLS money all going to HLS, or are there overhead shenanigans? The Saudi investment gets them a tiny slice of the cap table at a fabulous valuation. Consenting adults and all that, but there was a reason. ULA is "only" worth 5 billion.
(2.6e6 * $30 * 12 * 5) / 100 = $4.68B.
So far there has been 154 launches to put 5600 satellites in low earth orbit. So if each satellite costs $300k, each launch vehicle and other overhead could cost at most $19.4M. (2.6e6 * $30 * 12 * 5 - 5600 * $300000) / 154.
I think it's plausible SpaceX can launch for about (or even below) that cost ballpark.
There was an article on Forbes in 2022 [0], that states hard costs for launching 50 Starlink satellites into orbit is $15M – including both the launch vehicle and the satellites.
While there are a lot of unknowns, I'd say current Starlink profitability is credible.
Disclaimer: Of course there are a lot of other costs, salaries, facilities, droneship operations, etc. SpaceX is not a public company, so there's not that much information available. This is just a rough ballpark, if that.
[0]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/02/14/starlin...
In a 2015 presentation to investors, the Elon Musk-founded company initially predicted that Starlink would make $12 billion and $7 billion in operating profit in 2022. SpaceX also projected the division would have 20 million subscribers by the end of 2022, the presentation reveals. Instead, by the end of last year, Starlink only had over 1 million active subscribers. By May 2023, the company reported it had about 1.5 million users; however, CNBC reports Hofeller stated it’s now “well over” that mark.
The same article says WSJ says 2022 revenue was $1.4 billion. It doesn't break out terminal sales from subscriptions. But, roughly, that works out to $3.6 billion gross for 2.6 million subs.