Losing the Chinese market is a double punch. Initially it guts their growth but over the longer term it will spawn state-sponsored competitors with access to near unlimited funds that can compete everywhere the US can't block them.
You're talking like countries can't choose not to do business for reasons other than US blocking it. This is a very globalist and US-centric view.
For a random example if PRC consistently violates Philippines integrity then US does not need to block anything, Philippines will just rather not pay money somewhere that directly sponsors PLA
The Cold War wasn't really over (of course hindsight is 20/20, but I always found the naive "we won the Cold War" mindset of the US and Western European countries a bit naive as an East German). If anybody "won the Cold War" it was the Eastern European countries which managed to escape the Soviet/Russian influence (which also never really stopped of course, but just moved underground).
And also: globalisation was already a thing during the Cold War, just with different poor countries to be exploited. I guess globalisation will only be over when all countries reach the same economic equilibrium, or as Neal Stephenson put it so eloquently in Snow Crash: "...once the Invisible Hand has taken away all those historical inequities and smeared them out into a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity..." ;)
If the West wanted to keep China from progressing, they should have done it 20 years ago. China now has the manpower the know-how and the funds surpass the West economically
In the long run China will most likely prevail, in the short run they are definitely feeling the pinch. Nothing wrong with complaining about the situation.
China will almost definitely be on par or even cross the USA/Taiwan capability in chip manufacturing.
The only loser in this scenario is the US, both short & long term.
20 years ago, I wouldn't be so confident about china prevailing. But I don't think any reasonable person will bet against China.
The fall of China has been greatly exaggerated for more than a decade or so. Yet they are still here, doing mostly fine.
I don't have to agree with their political/human rights situation to marvel how far they have come and still going strong.
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[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 27.6 ms ] threadSucks for ASML, they got no choice in the matter.
You're talking like countries can't choose not to do business for reasons other than US blocking it. This is a very globalist and US-centric view.
For a random example if PRC consistently violates Philippines integrity then US does not need to block anything, Philippines will just rather not pay money somewhere that directly sponsors PLA
And also: globalisation was already a thing during the Cold War, just with different poor countries to be exploited. I guess globalisation will only be over when all countries reach the same economic equilibrium, or as Neal Stephenson put it so eloquently in Snow Crash: "...once the Invisible Hand has taken away all those historical inequities and smeared them out into a broad global layer of what a Pakistani brickmaker would consider to be prosperity..." ;)
China will almost definitely be on par or even cross the USA/Taiwan capability in chip manufacturing.
The only loser in this scenario is the US, both short & long term.
20 years ago, I wouldn't be so confident about china prevailing. But I don't think any reasonable person will bet against China.
The fall of China has been greatly exaggerated for more than a decade or so. Yet they are still here, doing mostly fine.
I don't have to agree with their political/human rights situation to marvel how far they have come and still going strong.