Outside of the MechE space, I don't think they were that great of an employer anyhow. The wages at Tesla were always much lower than peers despite having most of R&D in the Bay Area.
They also seemed to overhire on boondoggles and not concentrate on execution.
Back in the day, I was constantly getting pinged to be a PM for their ML Infra team, but the pay was meh and they probably could have done better by acquihiring additional companies (similar to what they did with Deepscale).
For MechE, AE, and parts of EE you are not wrong - they definitely paid well above market rate because of the stock, but plenty of companies like Toyota, Ford, GM, etc began recognizing this and have begun raising salaries around the 2020-23 period while Tesla's remained stagnant, and we'll probably see the result in the next 5-7 years as these are lagging indicators.
Ah yes, the HN bubble. The role at these companies are hell to get into, its not a 3 month bootcamp role. Web Dev being hilariously easy to get into was a function of free money.
For most of the 2000s and 2010s, salaries were fairly low in the automotive and aerospace industry compared to software or pure hardware, so Tesla and SpaceX absolutely paid miles above competitors, but that's changing in the 2020s now that there's more money in both spaces.
Where would they go instead? Massive layoffs seem to be happening widely enough across the board that any real alternatives probably aren't hiring that aggressively.
On the supercharger side, there is a lot of battery tech work and providers now in the US, because Sequoia went gung-ho on GreenTech funding and most automotive companies are now working on charging tech too in order to avail IRA subsidies, so there is a growing Battery Tech and charging tech scene in the US.
I'm pretty averse to working in any of Musk's companies, not just Tesla.
It's not his (pseudo?) conservative views, I'm actually somewhat politically conservative. I just have a ton of antipathy toward him as a person. I'm not proud of this, but he's a person I actively want to fail.
Pseudo conservative… I like that phrase. Of course it’s also worth saying that the guy hangs out with neo-reactionaries (people who literally want to install a monarch).
Even if he didn’t espouse whatever the hell he’s espousing publicly, his companies are known as incredibly toxic work environments—one friend of a friend talks about hiding whenever Elon visits their building so they don’t get randomly fired for no reason. Not to mention safety hazards, stupidly long work hours for no real reason (if they’re not succeeding, why are they working so hard?)
He’s gotten himself surrounded by some real nutjobs, then reveals some beliefs that he believes are left-of-center. But that’s true only if you measure based on what he exposes himself to.
> Pseudo conservative… I like that phrase. Of course it’s also worth saying that the guy hangs out with neo-reactionaries (people who literally want to install a monarch).
Honestly, I wouldn't call him a conservative in any real sense. He pisses off liberals, but that doesn't make him a conservative. He just has a few shared points of opposition.
And I'm with the GP, he's someone who I think should fail, but I'm also torn: I also don't like a lot of the people who dislike him, and I wouldn't like the schadenfreude they'd feel if he fails.
The guy has a dozen children with how many woman and seems to take any drug that anyone offers him. This is not what I'd have considered a conservative about 10 years ago, but now I don't really know. It certainly paints a picture of someone who is deeply unhappy despite (or perhaps because of?) his unfathomable wealth. I don't like him, but antipathy isn't exactly what I'd call my feeling. I'd almost feel sorry for him if he wasn't so rich and smug.
> At this point I have to believe that any significant tech talent is looking at Tesla as a poison workplace.
Wasn't that already clear, like, five+ years ago? When they were trying to get the Model 3 in production, I remember stories of Musk visiting the site, getting into people's business, and firing them impulsively if he didn't like something. Stuff like that and the repeated lies about FSD led me to write them off years ago.
"Musk also told staff that he would ask for the resignation of any executive "who retains more than three people who don't obviously pass the excellent, necessary and trustworthy test."
I’d be shocked if he’d pass the drug test that many of his workers surely have to take (federal contracting; operating or working near heavy machinery)
Considering he went onto Joe Rogan's show & smoked pot there on camera, and pot at a federal level is still illegal, the answer is "no, he would not pass a basic drug test".
Instead, the tycoon promised that robotaxis would save the business, even as both of its partially automated driver assistance systems face recalls and investigations here in the US and in China.
A decade of repeated, unfulfilled FSD promises does not inspire confidence in more of the same.
Musk is chasing an illusion instead of simply focusing on making reliable, competitive transportation.
Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen.
Not withstanding how folks might reasonably hate the CEO, or want different features than offered by the two main selling affordable cars, Consumer Reports is pretty easy to check and there are far, far, more reliable electric cars at this point.
The reality distortion field of "every negative thing out there is just a personal attack out to destroy Musk" only holds out for so long.
> Company has had a long head start, and could have focused on core assets of a car instead of dreams that never happened and seem likely to never happen.
It seems like Tesla had to go "Hail Mary" on the dream/scam of "FSD" as a head start in electric vehicles doesn't provide any moat/advantage for simple vehicle sales. Whatever temporary advantage Tesla had in the drivetrain is negated by how much work that had to do to create (and often reinvent) every other part of car manufacturing.
There's a George Hotz lecture somewhere where he evicerates the Robotaxi business model.
Essentially he makes the point that, if you have to own a fleet and maintain it, even if you stop paying driver's wages, you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers. Sad implication is that uber drivers themselves are underwater after taking into account depreciation and maintenance.
A fleet where Tesla operates a network without needing to own or maintain the capital equipment is a lot more profitable, and they're one of the few companies positioned to pull it off (certainly not Waymo). Essentially, Tesla could make money on the vehicle sale, make money on the maintenance, and make a platform fee on the taxi network. Wonderful economics on paper.
Win-win too: the car-owners supply the capital and in return receive the freedom of their own car plus an offset to their depreciation via the rental cash flow. That would mean that teslas would have incredible resale value compared to 'dumb' cars that don't produce cashflow.
That said, trust in the network is key, and Tesla + Musk aren't exactly winning public trust recently. If this is going to work, each incremental rider needs to be able to trust that
- if they try to book a Tesla robotaxi they will be able to find one available, nearby and in the time they want it
- the car will work (well maintained, enough charge for their trip duration)
- the self-driving will be safe
While all those things are straightforward, to be honest, it's hard for me to imagine how they can provide a better value proposition than human Uber/Lyft in that regard, where in major cities a car is always 10 min away or less, and the driver has both a financial and survival interest in ensuring it's well maintained and safe (the driver's life also depends on it).
Maybe the niche will be suburban or exurban places where human ride shares don't have enough demand to efficiently match with supply, and where people are okay waiting / planning in advance if they're sure a car will come. Could be some overlap with starlink market fit.
> you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers
Your implicit assumption is that robotaxis are competing on price with Uber drivers in their personally owned cars.
But as we can see today with fully autonomous Waymo cars, this is positioned as a premium product, with premium pricing, significantly higher than Uber X.
If I have a choice between Waymo, Uber and Lyft, I'd eagerly pay twice the rideshare rate for the consistently high-quality experience and predictable comfort, safety, and distraction-free ride that Waymo offers. With Uber, I never know what I'm going to get.
They guy could just double-down on scaling out Supercharger infrastructure and make an absolute killing. Instead, he's pinning the company's future on a technology that won't likely come to fruition any time soon.
Elon's goal isn't money - he has more money than God. His goal is ego gratification. He wants to be Tony Stark, to do the cool shit that leads people to worship him as a genius and innovator.
His personal goal isn't money, sure, but he's the CEO of a publicly traded entity. That entity's goal is money, and as the CEO, from a legal POV the entity's needs and goals need to be put first and foremost.
If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
>If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
He couldn't care less about the market or its needs.We live in a capitalist society and Elon Musk won capitalism. The man famously doesn't pay bills. He doesn't pay rent. He illegally put a giant light-up X on top of Twitter HQ that the police had to remove. He plays with companies like a kid playing with toys. He believes the rules don't apply to him, thus far he's been proven correct (possibly with the exception of being forced to buy Twitter - but he can afford to burn that to the ground if he wants.) He's gotten away with things that would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times, and has more money to throw at the consequences of his actions than most governments.
It's pretty likely that the payment stuff will get ironed out/consolidated, at that point it looks a lot like a low margin business with significant infrastructure cost. Especially with the industry moving to the Tesla charging interface.
... so I guess they are not launching any new vehicles?
Honestly it might be correct for them at this point, given they have a decent SKU count now with their main headwinds being macro market demand for EV's and QC production issues.
That said, hard to be a tech growth story without new product.
Or maybe he's unhappy with delays and recalls and plans to re-hire whole department?
Didn’t they just announce they were working on affordable cars. Seeing as their current line is not affordable by any reasonable standard, surely firing people working on new cars is a shitty message to investors? Also to existing staff!
They did not announce they were working on affordable cars, or at least not a new model that would be more affordable than the models they have now.
Musk pushed all questions about new models to the Robotaxi event in August and the media filled in the blanks and ran with "new, cheaper model" putting words into Musk's mouth.
He did say they weren't going to build a new production line.
it was ridiculous that after an absolutely awful earnings call, TSLA stock still jumped because Musk promised to start making cheaper cars. As though he won't screw that up also
This so far is the biggest sting to current Tesla owners. A lot of the stupid stuff it was kind of possible to ignore because it didn't affect the ownership directly, but this is insane.
Superchargers have been the greatest competitive advantage of Tesla for as long as the company existed. They've been so great at keeping them reliably operating , drastically easing range anxiety for Tesla owners. With this layoff I expect the Supercharger network to become just like the rest of them: broken over 50% of the time.
One of the exciting things about the broad switch to NACS in the US was that other fast charger networks were going to have to compete with Tesla's network, which might have brought the level of reliability and ease of use up dramatically. Instead, we're going to have zero reliable fast charging networks.
I think this broadly dooms the EV movement in the US. I need to sell my Tesla and I guess get a PEHV or something.
> One of the exciting things about the broad switch to NACS in the US was that other fast charger networks were going to have to compete with Tesla's network
What standardization will bring is more investment and development. Companies are less interested in investing in infrastructure when there are dumb standards fights which lead to pointless incompatibilities.
Part of the reason why Europe's EV infrastructure is further along is because of standardization. Everyone can build to the same standard and have it work with all brands of charger and all brands of car.
With CCS winning the protocol war in North America and with Tesla's plug now standardized as SAE J3400 (aka CCS type 3), more companies will be willing to build out more chargers. North America is years behind where it could have been, but at least it's slowly heading towards standardization and compatible charging infrastructure.
Gah! That headline sucks. It makes is sound like he laid off EVERYONE that works on those parts of the company. No, he sacked the head of those efforts, right?
Musk is still nutty and erratic, but lets get the headline correct people.
This is a particularly odd case of the HN Reading Comprehension Problem, where someone reads the headline, not the article, _assumes that the content of the article must be something other than what it is_, and then complains about the headline.
(It's not a hugely well-written article, and I can kind of see how you could get your reading of it by reading only the headline and the first paragraph, but if you read the whole article it's clear enough.)
What is he even thinking when getting rid of nearly the entire Supercharger team? Does he expect the few people remaining with no head of the department to be able to effectively coordinate expansion? Especially now that it's becoming the standard for a lot of US electric vehicles?
Along with a majority of the public policy team and the Director of Vehicle Programs, what does this leave us with?
Do we expect Musk to be competent in public policy nationwide? The man doesn't even know how to fire people at Xitter without getting himself into a bevy of lawsuits for violating multiple labor laws.
Imo, they still have a lot of potential - they just need to remove Musk and bring an adult to the room.
Sadly, most of the ownership appears to be Musk and closely affiliated funds, but those funds could be enticed to vote him out if enough money is lost.
An electric carmaker absolutely must have 2 things: an exciting product pipeline (true off all carmakers) and a rapidly growing charging network.
Tesla has fumbled both. It would take years to get back in the game if they developed the will. It takes so long to get a car to market that letting your pipeline go dry is suicidal.
Imo, a major failure was their inability to deliver on their contract with PepsiCo for Electric Semis [0]
The electric semitruck space would have been a massive moneymaker for Tesla, but concentrating on boondoggles like Cybertruck or X/Twitter undermined a major revenue source.
Also their inability to concentrate on developing a Model 2.
A big thing with the semi and the cybertruck was that Tesla was going to make it's own next gen batteries to make them possible.
Smart move at the time but they said recently that it's not actually necessary now as there's a tsunami of cheap, high performance batteries. And those batteries are readily available to (and sometimes built by) their conpetitors
Which is even sadder, because the same amount of capital deployed to projects like Cybertruck or FSD could have been deployed to further enhancing battery R&D, which they do kind of suck at.
They are dependent on Panasonic for most battery chemistry work, and most of their R&D is in the Battery Software space (which is actually very important)
We have one Tesla already. I am going to need a new car soon. But now it looks like it’s going to be too risky to buy another Tesla. I need a certain level of stability from the manufacturer in order to make a big capital expenditure.
That's what really strikes me. Musk seems to have a difficult time understanding others' (legitimate!) desire for some sense of stability in their business and financial dealings.
My last car cost $10,000 and has been a solid, stable workhorse for over a decade now. If I bought a Model Y today, would it still be working in 10 years? Would I even be able to get parts for it anymore? Or would both the car and the car manufacturer be defunct? I'm not sure exactly what I'd guess the odds are, but I'm pretty sure they're nowhere near good enough for me to be willing to wager $30,000 on that bet. And that's largely because of the pattern of rash, impulsive behavior on the part of the person at the helm of the company.
I'm really surprised that this concern doesn't get more attention. Tesla owners are more dependent on the parent company for parts and maintenance than probably any other manufacturer. As someone who keeps cars for a long time, the unreliability of Musk and Tesla would be terrifying to me if I owned one of their vehicles.
There is a significant risk that Tesla depriortizes one or more of the current models in the future in order to chase after whatever shiny project has caught Elon's attention.
Wow, Rebecca Tinucci (EV charging) and Daniel Ho (EV products) are gone.
WTF? This is utterly bananas. I don't get it.
The long-term cost of treating longtime, loyal, talented employees as... disposable could be very high. It could even threaten the company's survival.
But... I'm going to give Musk the benefit of the doubt, because he has proven me -- and lots of people who are way smarter than me -- wrong, again and again, over the past two decades. He has a long track record of making bets that look crazy-stupid in the moment but turn out to be crazy-brilliant in hindsight.
I’ve read quite a few news stories on this and I still don’t understand what Musk is trying to accomplish. Tesla has been hugely successful. The model Y is the best selling car in the world. Sure, there is a downturn, but why make such drastic changes? It just doesn’t make sense.
There are a host of smart reasons for this, like moving to franchising or a deal with an oil/gas/infrastructure company more suited for low innovation work. NACS is a solved problem, its simple a roll out issue and likely not work Tesla needs to be doing anymore.
I'm stunned people are stupid enough to buy these (and other) rolling spy/psyop platforms. They are worse than phones, because when they decide your political views aren't allowed, they'll just stop driving, or worse, drive itself back to the dealership or the police. Why do you think China gave him 'permission' to roll it out there?
An interesting thought experiment if Telsa was taken over by a standard car CEO right now what decisions would they be making in comparison to Elon Musk.
The bet on the future of cars being electric has paid off. (although may not for lower priced cars for a while)
The future being supervised self-driving looks like a good bet.
The future model being robo-taxi business, I'm not so sure about that.
89 comments
[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 108 ms ] threadThey are going to have to pay pretty damn well to get anyone with a brain.
They also seemed to overhire on boondoggles and not concentrate on execution.
Back in the day, I was constantly getting pinged to be a PM for their ML Infra team, but the pay was meh and they probably could have done better by acquihiring additional companies (similar to what they did with Deepscale).
Oh come on. Anyone talented doesn't have to beg for anything, and certainly not a role at a falling company.
I wasn't saying a web dev could. Context is key.
Still not responding to the argument.
It's not his (pseudo?) conservative views, I'm actually somewhat politically conservative. I just have a ton of antipathy toward him as a person. I'm not proud of this, but he's a person I actively want to fail.
I'm curious how common my viewpoint is.
Even if he didn’t espouse whatever the hell he’s espousing publicly, his companies are known as incredibly toxic work environments—one friend of a friend talks about hiding whenever Elon visits their building so they don’t get randomly fired for no reason. Not to mention safety hazards, stupidly long work hours for no real reason (if they’re not succeeding, why are they working so hard?)
Honestly, I wouldn't call him a conservative in any real sense. He pisses off liberals, but that doesn't make him a conservative. He just has a few shared points of opposition.
And I'm with the GP, he's someone who I think should fail, but I'm also torn: I also don't like a lot of the people who dislike him, and I wouldn't like the schadenfreude they'd feel if he fails.
I don't want him to fail, however. I'm happy we live in a world where some people work hard to advance our technology.
Wasn't that already clear, like, five+ years ago? When they were trying to get the Model 3 in production, I remember stories of Musk visiting the site, getting into people's business, and firing them impulsively if he didn't like something. Stuff like that and the repeated lies about FSD led me to write them off years ago.
A decade of repeated, unfulfilled FSD promises does not inspire confidence in more of the same.
Musk is chasing an illusion instead of simply focusing on making reliable, competitive transportation.
Tesla is no longer a "growth" stock.
Not withstanding how folks might reasonably hate the CEO, or want different features than offered by the two main selling affordable cars, Consumer Reports is pretty easy to check and there are far, far, more reliable electric cars at this point.
The reality distortion field of "every negative thing out there is just a personal attack out to destroy Musk" only holds out for so long.
It seems like Tesla had to go "Hail Mary" on the dream/scam of "FSD" as a head start in electric vehicles doesn't provide any moat/advantage for simple vehicle sales. Whatever temporary advantage Tesla had in the drivetrain is negated by how much work that had to do to create (and often reinvent) every other part of car manufacturing.
Just turning the wipers on becomes a road safety hazard.
Using a touch screen while driving is now illegal in most states --- and for good reason. Tesla *requires* the use of a touch screen.
Essentially he makes the point that, if you have to own a fleet and maintain it, even if you stop paying driver's wages, you're not making profit compared to market rates for Uber drivers. Sad implication is that uber drivers themselves are underwater after taking into account depreciation and maintenance.
A fleet where Tesla operates a network without needing to own or maintain the capital equipment is a lot more profitable, and they're one of the few companies positioned to pull it off (certainly not Waymo). Essentially, Tesla could make money on the vehicle sale, make money on the maintenance, and make a platform fee on the taxi network. Wonderful economics on paper.
Win-win too: the car-owners supply the capital and in return receive the freedom of their own car plus an offset to their depreciation via the rental cash flow. That would mean that teslas would have incredible resale value compared to 'dumb' cars that don't produce cashflow.
That said, trust in the network is key, and Tesla + Musk aren't exactly winning public trust recently. If this is going to work, each incremental rider needs to be able to trust that
- if they try to book a Tesla robotaxi they will be able to find one available, nearby and in the time they want it
- the car will work (well maintained, enough charge for their trip duration)
- the self-driving will be safe
While all those things are straightforward, to be honest, it's hard for me to imagine how they can provide a better value proposition than human Uber/Lyft in that regard, where in major cities a car is always 10 min away or less, and the driver has both a financial and survival interest in ensuring it's well maintained and safe (the driver's life also depends on it).
Maybe the niche will be suburban or exurban places where human ride shares don't have enough demand to efficiently match with supply, and where people are okay waiting / planning in advance if they're sure a car will come. Could be some overlap with starlink market fit.
Maybe he is just looking for something, anything to give the stock price a jolt and help encourage investors to flat out give him $56B.
They could do something wild like partner with manufacturers if they decided that wide deployment onto consumer cars was a good path.
Your implicit assumption is that robotaxis are competing on price with Uber drivers in their personally owned cars.
But as we can see today with fully autonomous Waymo cars, this is positioned as a premium product, with premium pricing, significantly higher than Uber X.
If I have a choice between Waymo, Uber and Lyft, I'd eagerly pay twice the rideshare rate for the consistently high-quality experience and predictable comfort, safety, and distraction-free ride that Waymo offers. With Uber, I never know what I'm going to get.
If he doesn't want to be beholden to the needs of the public market, he's free to take Tesla private.
He couldn't care less about the market or its needs.We live in a capitalist society and Elon Musk won capitalism. The man famously doesn't pay bills. He doesn't pay rent. He illegally put a giant light-up X on top of Twitter HQ that the police had to remove. He plays with companies like a kid playing with toys. He believes the rules don't apply to him, thus far he's been proven correct (possibly with the exception of being forced to buy Twitter - but he can afford to burn that to the ground if he wants.) He's gotten away with things that would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times, and has more money to throw at the consequences of his actions than most governments.
What you wrote rings true, especially the "would have landed lesser people in prison many, many times" part.
Every FUCKING charging station needs a different app and the credit card endpoints never FUCKING work.
So the decision to cut back on Superchargers is a bit of a head scratcher.
Honestly it might be correct for them at this point, given they have a decent SKU count now with their main headwinds being macro market demand for EV's and QC production issues.
That said, hard to be a tech growth story without new product.
Or maybe he's unhappy with delays and recalls and plans to re-hire whole department?
Bang goes TSLA gains this week.
Musk pushed all questions about new models to the Robotaxi event in August and the media filled in the blanks and ran with "new, cheaper model" putting words into Musk's mouth.
He did say they weren't going to build a new production line.
Superchargers have been the greatest competitive advantage of Tesla for as long as the company existed. They've been so great at keeping them reliably operating , drastically easing range anxiety for Tesla owners. With this layoff I expect the Supercharger network to become just like the rest of them: broken over 50% of the time.
One of the exciting things about the broad switch to NACS in the US was that other fast charger networks were going to have to compete with Tesla's network, which might have brought the level of reliability and ease of use up dramatically. Instead, we're going to have zero reliable fast charging networks.
I think this broadly dooms the EV movement in the US. I need to sell my Tesla and I guess get a PEHV or something.
What standardization will bring is more investment and development. Companies are less interested in investing in infrastructure when there are dumb standards fights which lead to pointless incompatibilities.
Part of the reason why Europe's EV infrastructure is further along is because of standardization. Everyone can build to the same standard and have it work with all brands of charger and all brands of car.
With CCS winning the protocol war in North America and with Tesla's plug now standardized as SAE J3400 (aka CCS type 3), more companies will be willing to build out more chargers. North America is years behind where it could have been, but at least it's slowly heading towards standardization and compatible charging infrastructure.
Musk is still nutty and erratic, but lets get the headline correct people.
> Tesla is not just laying off Daniel Ho, director of vehicle programs and new product introduction, but also his entire team.
> All of which makes the decision to get rid of senior director of EV charging Rebecca Tinucci—along with her entire team—a bit of a head-scratcher.
(It's not a hugely well-written article, and I can kind of see how you could get your reading of it by reading only the headline and the first paragraph, but if you read the whole article it's clear enough.)
Along with a majority of the public policy team and the Director of Vehicle Programs, what does this leave us with?
Do we expect Musk to be competent in public policy nationwide? The man doesn't even know how to fire people at Xitter without getting himself into a bevy of lawsuits for violating multiple labor laws.
Just...what is going on over there...?
Product range? Will only get more obsolete. Supercharger network? Will only get more crowded.
All so he can have his nerd truck and robotaxis.
Sadly, most of the ownership appears to be Musk and closely affiliated funds, but those funds could be enticed to vote him out if enough money is lost.
Tesla has fumbled both. It would take years to get back in the game if they developed the will. It takes so long to get a car to market that letting your pipeline go dry is suicidal.
The electric semitruck space would have been a massive moneymaker for Tesla, but concentrating on boondoggles like Cybertruck or X/Twitter undermined a major revenue source.
Also their inability to concentrate on developing a Model 2.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
Smart move at the time but they said recently that it's not actually necessary now as there's a tsunami of cheap, high performance batteries. And those batteries are readily available to (and sometimes built by) their conpetitors
They are dependent on Panasonic for most battery chemistry work, and most of their R&D is in the Battery Software space (which is actually very important)
My last car cost $10,000 and has been a solid, stable workhorse for over a decade now. If I bought a Model Y today, would it still be working in 10 years? Would I even be able to get parts for it anymore? Or would both the car and the car manufacturer be defunct? I'm not sure exactly what I'd guess the odds are, but I'm pretty sure they're nowhere near good enough for me to be willing to wager $30,000 on that bet. And that's largely because of the pattern of rash, impulsive behavior on the part of the person at the helm of the company.
There is a significant risk that Tesla depriortizes one or more of the current models in the future in order to chase after whatever shiny project has caught Elon's attention.
WTF? This is utterly bananas. I don't get it.
The long-term cost of treating longtime, loyal, talented employees as... disposable could be very high. It could even threaten the company's survival.
But... I'm going to give Musk the benefit of the doubt, because he has proven me -- and lots of people who are way smarter than me -- wrong, again and again, over the past two decades. He has a long track record of making bets that look crazy-stupid in the moment but turn out to be crazy-brilliant in hindsight.
The jury is out.
More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40209382
The bet on the future of cars being electric has paid off. (although may not for lower priced cars for a while)
The future being supervised self-driving looks like a good bet.
The future model being robo-taxi business, I'm not so sure about that.
- NACS has become the open, industry standard
- The tech has been figured out, commoditized and not an area for innovation
- He made a deal with a gas station to take over deployment
- Version 4 Super Chargers are a single piece delivered on flatbed, lego pieces now
- Cost savings in outsourcing
- Moving to a franchise model