How I lost 1000€ betting on CS:GO

I wrote two blog posts based on my experience betting on CS:GO in 2019.

The first post covers the following topics:

* What is your edge?

* Financial decision-making with ML

* One bet: Expected profits and decision rule

* Multiple bets: The Kelly criterion

* Probability calibration

* Winner’s curse

Link: https://tabacof.github.io/posts/csgo_betting_with_ml_part_1/csgo_betting_with_ml_part_1.html

The second post covers the following topics:

* CS:GO basics

* Data scraping

* Feature engineering

* TrueSkill

* Dataset

* Modelling

* Evaluation

* Backtesting

* Why I lost 1000 euros

Link: https://tabacof.github.io/posts/csgo_betting_with_ml_part_2/csgo_betting_with_ml_part_2.html

I hope they can be useful. All the code and datasets are freely available on Github. Let me know if you have any feedback!