Ask HN: What is the success rate of those that join YC?

17 points by localfirst ↗ HN
curious to know what the success rate of those that join YC is?

Success as in they reach IPO or cashed out in secondary markets or acquired for at least 1000% ROI (10x bagger)

What does the % look like here roughly?

For those still grinding it out, are they profitable and able to generate their own runway from enterprise sales?

Of those that failed to get any acquisition or ROI, what is the % rate look like there?

14 comments

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wish I had access to this data long time ago then I wouldn't have wasted so much time trying to be a startup or get into YC!!!

YC mythos is crumbling before me...

Failure : (92.95%)

Small Success : (3.94%)

Medium Success: (2.39%)

Large Success : (0.28%)

Unicorn : (0.44%)

and the ROI distribution doesn't look good either (but I understand those home runs will pay for the losses)

-100% (Total Loss): (80.9%)

-99% to -50% : (2.4%)

-49% to 0% : (1.4%)

1% to 100% : (2.6%)

101% to 500% : (5.7%)

501% to 1000% : (2.8%)

1001% to 5000% : (3.8%)

5001%+ : (0.4%)

But getting funded & having it spent is 100% success, if you have fun burning it!
OPM is funny money...especially when its subsidized by tax payers and will be prevented from failing by bail outs from the tax payers...left or right!
Given the 100% loss rate, most startups are not sued for using funds wrong, which makes it particularly safe to waste the investent.
They put in $150k at 7% then top that up to $500k later on if the company raises more. The first batch was low, like $10k or something, couldn't find the exact numbers anymore.

There's a page of their bigger successes: https://www.ycombinator.com/topcompanies/public

But those are the bigger ones. There's small ones that bring value to the world like OMGPOP, that made that Draw Something game that was sadly acquired by Zynga for $200m.

Apparently they've invested in over 5000 companies. That's $750m-$2.5b. Their top 10 exits probably covers that.

oh man thats it?! thought it was 500k for 7%

and only 10k for first batch ... forget YC man

damn super disappointed only 0.2% of IPO...with success rates this bad might as well just become a professional poker player lmao

Honest question: what did you expect to find?

Startups are hard. The vast majority fail. Joining YC doesn't mean they run the company and drive the vision for you. It sounds like they give you some money and people connections, and from there, it's almost all you.

The $500k is guaranteed if the startup grows enough, but if it doesn't, then that's how they control the risk.

IPO isn't entirely the success metric though. Reddit was founded in 2005, the first batch, and IPOed this year. That's almost two decades and it's one of the more successful YC stories - nobody at the time would have touched a non-profitable company led by someone below 40. YC started the cliche of founders being 20 year olds who have no plan for profitability. And many VCs just copied it, snatching all these young, brash, YC rejects, which is what gives the demographic a bad reputation.

Also I'd say the exit most people want is an acquisition. There's plenty of those too. You get cash right away, and so do the VCs. You don't get into the billionaires list, but the thing is with IPO, you can't even cash out a lot of it without the stock tanking. IPOs are often the option because some companies get too big to acquire.

And the other thing is you don't leave with $0 on failure - you get experience, the resume item, possibly a job later. Acquihires might even mean it's a good job. Sam Altman didn't IPO but he got a job with YC after his exit, and now he's a superstar founder.

And YC the most successful by a large margin. 500 Startups might be the next best. 500 has more small exits than most other accelerators. They're more marketing based, while YC is product based. So it may fit different people.

The problem with acquisition focused investment strategy is that it only works during low rate and non-recession environments

It's also very destructive to the economy. The wealth concentrates at the hands of the few and those capital are almost certainly outside US jurisdiction to avoid taxes.

Lastly, the shock to the people that helped those few get rich have to find new jobs or at the mercy of those seeking enrichment over building long term jobs which can only come from those with long term focus not cash out so i can retired mentality.

You can see the differences in how East Asian conglomerates operate vs the West. Life long job prospects, conservative long term focused at monopolizing and transferring jobs from the West to the East.

The society and city are completely different as a result. Whereas in tech bro cities you have homelessness, violence, addiction and ideological absurdities.

East Asia + Singapore have created stable civil societies without those things and its reflected by the type of billionaires they create and allow to operate with long term focus and stability top to down.

Isn't crowdfunding a better way to bootstrap a startup?
but ppl arent going to crowdfund your b2b database

crowdfunding is always hardware for some reason and consumer stuff...like games

Downside with bootstrapping is you usually end up with 5% of the market. Someone else uses VC money to build a distribution engine, grabs 95%, and then acquires you. Usually bootstrappers are more well fortified and have a loyal community though.

The downside of crowdfunding is you actually have to sell pretty hard to investors and you're also locked in to whatever you promise. Kickstarter locks you into stretch goals. Equity crowdfunding may lock you into a mini IPO situation, with inexperienced investors who put unwanted pressure.

Upside is you don't need to build a unicorn. Bootstrapping works best for something that is a small market, and VCs won't fight over small markets. Best example is something that only works in one country or one language, or say, a company that makes realistic 3D tree assets for CGI.