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blackeyeblitzar
I wonder if this statement is meant to play down Google’s own market posted to avoid antitrust scrutiny
sashank_1509
That’s really not what he said if you see the interview. The question he was asked was,”Who do you think is a competitor to Waymo in the autonomous market?” And I think they spoke about Cruise being banned before this.

So he replied saying Tesla is a leader not “the” leader and guessing that Waymo and Tesla will be the main competitors in this market. This is a reasonable response, Zoox doesn’t seem to have even started testing, Motional, Waabi, Gatik, Aurora, Torqdrive, Nuro, TuSimple he might not have even heard of some of these companies. Tesla, Zoox are the only competitors with deep pockets, and he chose Tesla as what he think will be successful

jeffreygoesto
Some announcements and videos are there from Zoox though? They seem to be slowly but constantly making progress?
ArtTimeInvestor
It's an interesting thought experiment what the value might be to be the obvious leader in this space.

There are about 2B vehicles on the planet. Say each one is driven for an hour per day. What might be the value of automating that hour? $5?

If it is $5, then the yearly value of automating all rides would be

$5 * 2B * 365 = $3650B

Say we get to 10% automation of the fleet in 10 years. And say the market leader gets 25% market share.

That would be $3650B * 0.1 * 0.25 = $91B

But the first 10% of rides that are automated are probable much more valuable than the average. So let's double that:

$91B * 2 = $182B

Say the margin is 50%. That would be $91B.

At a p/e of 30 that would be worth $2730B.

About twice as Tesla's current market cap.

peutetre
Tesla will have to pay for all the HW3 upgrades first. FSD v13 doesn't support HW3. They'll either need to make a HW3.5 for those cars for free or refund people's money with interest.