Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance") (birdflurisk.com) 30 points by nathan_young 1y ago ↗ HN
[–] nathan_young 1y ago ↗ Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
[–] llmfan 1y ago ↗ Seems too narrow to be a website.Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt."Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines.""Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them" [–] llmfan 1y ago ↗ actually, a more practical idea would just be a generic "pandemic risk" site. [–] nathan_young 1y ago ↗ If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?
[–] nathan_young 1y ago ↗ If there is interest here I may add other streams. Would you sign up to such a site?
4 comments
[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 19.7 ms ] threadMaybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt.
"Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines."
"Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"