Sounds like a pie in the sky theory, like the one that floated around a few years ago that Facebook only needs to introduce search, and it could kill Google.
I'm also a bit confused by their statements about Facebook v Amazon. I think it stems from people thinking Amazon is the same old ecommerce shop it used to be in 2000.
I doubt Facebook will get into the SVOD, publishing, mobile device and supply chain business that Amazon is in because Facebook decides to build a wishlist app.
>While I don't feel Facebook is doomed, this article really lacks meaningful content.
But look at the site its coming from. Most of what they pump out is hyperbole about ycombinator(or some other VC pal of theirs) companies, lacking meaningful content, and it seems they write about their every move, no matter how trivial, from the company's start to end. I remember an article published about Kevin Rose saying he'd "shoot" bad ideas in the head. An entire article, just to tell everyone he wouldn't waste time on bad ideas.
Not quite sure what they're suggesting. A wishlist system, whereby I have a bunch of products in which I've expressed an interest? Some kind of digital gifting system where people pay money to buy virtual "presents"?
In the case of the former, we already have Amazon wishlists, or I suppose someone could go through my Pinterest and see what I like. In the case of the latter, if anyone actually bought me a digital gift then they'd probably get unfriended.
If Facebook can come up with a wishlist system to rival Amazon's then people will absolutely flock to it.
It does feel like FB could rake in enormous amounts of cash quickly if it really wanted to, but then doing so would kill its long-term viability. Trouble is it's current approach seems death by a thousand pokes. I suppose the execs who've already cashed out already had their payday. Sorry the saps who bought...
Recently there was a shower curtain with the design of a Facebook profile/users wall.
It was being widely shared throughout FB. Why isn't Facebook attaching an affiliate link under these types of photos to where I can buy the product or service?
farcebook seems intent on pulling a "Digg" crash and burn.
Same kind of swamped in hubris jerk pulling the strings.
Notice the Zuck, cashed out quite a bit recently. What does he know that we don't?
Maybe that the site is a fad and the bubble is bursting in slomo.
What the "I don't trust Zuck" means to conservative investors (senior programmers, parents, and other fossils) is that management counts, in fact to old fogies like Buffett it's a major league concern.
The same thing that holds true of a YC company is true of large corporations. To channel Lombardi, "management isn't everything, it's the only thing"
I wouldn't advise this guy putting money into facebook just yet. A stock's price is supposed to reflect all information pertaining to a company (including a lock-up expiration). However, as with Groupon and LinkedIn, the price before their lock-ups expired didn't correctly reflect the value of the stock with all the 'unlocked' shares flooding the market.
I speculate that facebook's price will continue to go down post lock-up. Insiders aren't ignoring the poor news or outlook and I think they'll sell for more reasons than those. That's not necessarily because these insiders don't trust their company. They may have to pay off expensive things (maybe a nice home?) they bought when the company IPO'd and can't risk the uncertainty of facebook's future value. Also, if you ask any investor, they'll tell you that diversifying your portfolio is important.
Another interesting thing to think about are tax implications. I know a lot of facebook insiders were happy that their IPO was pre-July because otherwise, the lock-up would have crossed into 2013. This is when taxes on capital gains are expected to rise and it can cost them a lot of money.
I'm curious to see the performance of the stock in the coming months. Especially with the uncertainty of growth, possible tax increases, and the implications of the lock-up expiry, this will be an interesting journey for facebook.
21 comments
[ 5.0 ms ] story [ 56.4 ms ] thread"And, if it can leverage the physical goods loophole on iOS, it can become the social shopping platform.
So buh bye lame “Social stories” and buh bye Amazon (which currently has a $100b market cap, around twice that of Facebook)."
Really, Facebook's save is social shopping... and that would upend Amazon?
I doubt Facebook will get into the SVOD, publishing, mobile device and supply chain business that Amazon is in because Facebook decides to build a wishlist app.
But look at the site its coming from. Most of what they pump out is hyperbole about ycombinator(or some other VC pal of theirs) companies, lacking meaningful content, and it seems they write about their every move, no matter how trivial, from the company's start to end. I remember an article published about Kevin Rose saying he'd "shoot" bad ideas in the head. An entire article, just to tell everyone he wouldn't waste time on bad ideas.
In the case of the former, we already have Amazon wishlists, or I suppose someone could go through my Pinterest and see what I like. In the case of the latter, if anyone actually bought me a digital gift then they'd probably get unfriended.
If Facebook can come up with a wishlist system to rival Amazon's then people will absolutely flock to it.
It was being widely shared throughout FB. Why isn't Facebook attaching an affiliate link under these types of photos to where I can buy the product or service?
Facebook moves into real goods, to compete, Amazon then needs to start a social network.
If Google starts gaining market share on Google Plus, Facebook will step into the search space.
The same thing that holds true of a YC company is true of large corporations. To channel Lombardi, "management isn't everything, it's the only thing"
I speculate that facebook's price will continue to go down post lock-up. Insiders aren't ignoring the poor news or outlook and I think they'll sell for more reasons than those. That's not necessarily because these insiders don't trust their company. They may have to pay off expensive things (maybe a nice home?) they bought when the company IPO'd and can't risk the uncertainty of facebook's future value. Also, if you ask any investor, they'll tell you that diversifying your portfolio is important.
Another interesting thing to think about are tax implications. I know a lot of facebook insiders were happy that their IPO was pre-July because otherwise, the lock-up would have crossed into 2013. This is when taxes on capital gains are expected to rise and it can cost them a lot of money.
I'm curious to see the performance of the stock in the coming months. Especially with the uncertainty of growth, possible tax increases, and the implications of the lock-up expiry, this will be an interesting journey for facebook.