If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
Amazon wrote red numbers for decades but it's stock kept rising. In the end, the company fulfilled pretty much all promises made and the "trust" and "cooperation" of the stakeholders paid off.
Tesla is a crazy competent company. Just because the markets change preferences or the target group is 'stuffed', doesn't mean that the corporation won't perform in the near future. In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
> If I got the whole thing right, sales can 'crater' as much as they want, if shareholders don't sell and or offer shares at a higher price and or if new 'investors' buy what is offered at the current price, the stock goes up.
That part is tautologically true. But why are people willing to buy at the higher price?
> In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
Given the brief bubble, I can see people expected the White House to help. Given the headline, it actually hurt.
So: who is the "somebody", and what do they know? Because if it's insider trading, that's a whole new problem.
"by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
> I can see people expected the White House to help
I don't think "help" is the right word here. Elon got and will continue to get contracts for all the baby steps into space. And the "portfolio gang" knows, expects and works/cooperates on stuff without any of it falling into the problem of "insider trading".
This is all very superficial but I am not suited for a deeper dive.
> "by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
Which is really bad compared to both the market expectations, the pre-orders, Musk's expectations, the other vehicles Tesla sells, and other vehicles in the same category:
> Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
No, it doesn't translate into "crazy competent". He turned a failing car company into a successful one, at exactly the right time to take advantage of a simultaneous global desire to reduce fossil fuel use and a global massive battery prices reduction he had no direct causal responsibility to take credit for (because Tesla doesn't actually make a significant number of the batteries themselves, they partner with Panasonic), in the brief window before other car companies started doing the same thing better and harder — which is why China's EVs are now so cheap, that even with massive import duties in the EU, they're still cheaper and more performant than Tesla's.
It's not nothing, as his biggest critics would claim, but it's also not "crazy competent". If Tesla's share price was 1/10th to 1/20th of what it is, it would be worth that — which is genuinely impressive, but it's not "crazy competent".
The self-driving thing would have been great, except that he keeps promising "next year" since last decade without delivering, and now even if he reaches the current plan of "in a few cities" this summer, even if that's without safety drivers, that's something Waymo did already in November 2019 so Tesla would be 5.5 years behind them.
Trying to re-frame the company as an AI company that just happens to have cars? Again, a few dozen companies saw his actor in a zentai, pre-empted the real one by making their own robots, those robots are keeping pace with the capabilities of Tesla's *real* demos — although, the only thing demoed in the most recent party, which would be a breakthrough if the unit wasn't under remote control, would be "understands speech in noisy background". And several of those other androids ship, while Optimus still doesn't.
> Which is really bad compared to both the market expectations, the pre-orders, Musk's expectations
Hopes and expectations, black holes and revelations (-Muse). Another take: The stock price is still on the uptake, which leads me to believe that the expectations, projections and Musk's personal comments were merely, as they so often are, for the broader public.
The data you linked to shows a long term trend upwards, which, as a lot of people would expect, isn't going to continue because the competition has not only caught up and outpaced Tesla in many ways but the market for EV's diversified and now serves many more tastes than before.
Tesla was a bit "Vanilla" and their Banana Split 'Cybertruck' is a pretty cool addition that will always stand out and be a pretty investment for fanboys of "the man who's gonna bring us to Mars, what did you do?", as a commenter on reddit put it once (I'm probably paraphrasing).
Musk owns 13% of all Tesla shares, and no other investor owns entire chunks so the amount of shareholders is pretty damn high, with lots of people who are not in tech or big on investments in general, which makes a continued rise of the stock price despite missing "market expectations" quite a bit more interesting.
People understand that Tesla became a company that will deliver even in uncertain times. And their Gigafactories and the entire tech approach behind it, as much marketing hype as it was, is crazy competent.
They have a different tech approach to Waymo and their software needs a lot more honing than Google's little moonwalker, who probably had early access to the Ingress and Pokemon Go Dataset and have a shitload of time series data on where pedestrians and dirty scooter drivers are more likely to be expected, and who are thus 'safer' than other self-driving systems and even humans.
Even if Tesla won't spice up their line up, AI, especially GenAI will give a not-yet-liquid-enough Vanilla target group the financial means to buy into the green revolution with what is still, despite the hate, a status symbol of people who are not poor anymore but more importantly, who are progressive.
And as soon as their tech stack 'can see properly', and we know that will happen, they will make headlines, get good PR and get back right to the edge of all the expectations, don't you think? It's just a matter of time.
I was never a fan of tech demos and never believed a CEOs audience who claps like it's going to make good money from all that marketing hype no matter how shitty the sales are going to be or how scripted the demo actually was, revealed by thousands of bloggers and vloggers and traditional journalists, all of which drives exposure and peeks the interest of newcomers and long time lurkers who due to long enough exposure, suddenly start to like and wield the techy and marketing lingo.
Tesla is a curious company. They got the difficult parts - energy management, motors, batteries, software - but can’t get the most fundamental things even Trabant got right such as not have parts falling off the car. Tesla is famous for build quality issues and a five year old Tesla makes all sorts of cabin noises cheaper cars don’t.
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 37.1 ms ] threadThe market obviously prefers Musk fantasy over facts.
Amazon wrote red numbers for decades but it's stock kept rising. In the end, the company fulfilled pretty much all promises made and the "trust" and "cooperation" of the stakeholders paid off.
Tesla is a crazy competent company. Just because the markets change preferences or the target group is 'stuffed', doesn't mean that the corporation won't perform in the near future. In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
That part is tautologically true. But why are people willing to buy at the higher price?
> Tesla is a crazy competent company
Sales figures demonstrate otherwise. Cybertruck especially.
The company used to be better.
> In fact, if stock price stays high despite plunging sales, somebody knows something ... (or the CEO of the company hangs out in the White House a lot)
Given the brief bubble, I can see people expected the White House to help. Given the headline, it actually hurt.
So: who is the "somebody", and what do they know? Because if it's insider trading, that's a whole new problem.
I wrote "offer shares at a higher price". There is no reason to buy at a higher price until that price is the current price and keeps increasing.
> Sales figures demonstrate otherwise. Cybertruck especially.
"by the end of June (2024), Tesla had produced 11,000 Cybertrucks. (...) around 30,000 Cybertrucks by the end of the quarter (..) likely more than half of the ~23,000 “other vehicles” Tesla delivered in Q3 were Cybertrucks"
[] https://electrek.co/2024/10/03/tesla-reveals-how-many-cybert...
> The company used to be better.
Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
> I can see people expected the White House to help
I don't think "help" is the right word here. Elon got and will continue to get contracts for all the baby steps into space. And the "portfolio gang" knows, expects and works/cooperates on stuff without any of it falling into the problem of "insider trading".
This is all very superficial but I am not suited for a deeper dive.
Which is really bad compared to both the market expectations, the pre-orders, Musk's expectations, the other vehicles Tesla sells, and other vehicles in the same category:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.#Timelin...
https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/ford/f-series
> Only because we humans are used to judge "on short notice" all the time. The bigger picture translates into "crazy competent", but that might be a matter of opinion.
No, it doesn't translate into "crazy competent". He turned a failing car company into a successful one, at exactly the right time to take advantage of a simultaneous global desire to reduce fossil fuel use and a global massive battery prices reduction he had no direct causal responsibility to take credit for (because Tesla doesn't actually make a significant number of the batteries themselves, they partner with Panasonic), in the brief window before other car companies started doing the same thing better and harder — which is why China's EVs are now so cheap, that even with massive import duties in the EU, they're still cheaper and more performant than Tesla's.
It's not nothing, as his biggest critics would claim, but it's also not "crazy competent". If Tesla's share price was 1/10th to 1/20th of what it is, it would be worth that — which is genuinely impressive, but it's not "crazy competent".
The self-driving thing would have been great, except that he keeps promising "next year" since last decade without delivering, and now even if he reaches the current plan of "in a few cities" this summer, even if that's without safety drivers, that's something Waymo did already in November 2019 so Tesla would be 5.5 years behind them.
Trying to re-frame the company as an AI company that just happens to have cars? Again, a few dozen companies saw his actor in a zentai, pre-empted the real one by making their own robots, those robots are keeping pace with the capabilities of Tesla's *real* demos — although, the only thing demoed in the most recent party, which would be a breakthrough if the unit wasn't under remote control, would be "understands speech in noisy background". And several of those other androids ship, while Optimus still doesn't.
Hopes and expectations, black holes and revelations (-Muse). Another take: The stock price is still on the uptake, which leads me to believe that the expectations, projections and Musk's personal comments were merely, as they so often are, for the broader public.
The data you linked to shows a long term trend upwards, which, as a lot of people would expect, isn't going to continue because the competition has not only caught up and outpaced Tesla in many ways but the market for EV's diversified and now serves many more tastes than before.
Tesla was a bit "Vanilla" and their Banana Split 'Cybertruck' is a pretty cool addition that will always stand out and be a pretty investment for fanboys of "the man who's gonna bring us to Mars, what did you do?", as a commenter on reddit put it once (I'm probably paraphrasing).
Musk owns 13% of all Tesla shares, and no other investor owns entire chunks so the amount of shareholders is pretty damn high, with lots of people who are not in tech or big on investments in general, which makes a continued rise of the stock price despite missing "market expectations" quite a bit more interesting.
People understand that Tesla became a company that will deliver even in uncertain times. And their Gigafactories and the entire tech approach behind it, as much marketing hype as it was, is crazy competent.
They have a different tech approach to Waymo and their software needs a lot more honing than Google's little moonwalker, who probably had early access to the Ingress and Pokemon Go Dataset and have a shitload of time series data on where pedestrians and dirty scooter drivers are more likely to be expected, and who are thus 'safer' than other self-driving systems and even humans.
Even if Tesla won't spice up their line up, AI, especially GenAI will give a not-yet-liquid-enough Vanilla target group the financial means to buy into the green revolution with what is still, despite the hate, a status symbol of people who are not poor anymore but more importantly, who are progressive.
And as soon as their tech stack 'can see properly', and we know that will happen, they will make headlines, get good PR and get back right to the edge of all the expectations, don't you think? It's just a matter of time.
I was never a fan of tech demos and never believed a CEOs audience who claps like it's going to make good money from all that marketing hype no matter how shitty the sales are going to be or how scripted the demo actually was, revealed by thousands of bloggers and vloggers and traditional journalists, all of which drives exposure and peeks the interest of newcomers and long time lurkers who due to long enough exposure, suddenly start to like and wield the techy and marketing lingo.
Tesla is a curious company. They got the difficult parts - energy management, motors, batteries, software - but can’t get the most fundamental things even Trabant got right such as not have parts falling off the car. Tesla is famous for build quality issues and a five year old Tesla makes all sorts of cabin noises cheaper cars don’t.