I was always wondering if another 2008 / lead up to 2008 with irrational exuberance would happen again. It probably couldn't happen again in the real estate market, but I suppose Gamestop was similar, if not quite as big. The weird thing about 2008 was that everyone kept saying crazy things like "the housing market can't go down" and "this growth is the new normal". This feels similar, and potentially bigger.
And the people who are saying it are all so deeply invested in each other that very few people have incentives to try to see clearly.
Do you remember the day DeepSeek came out? Every. single. stock. took a dive. Yes, I think this situation is even more terrifying than the real estate bubble. Even as amazing as the tech is today, its value is still almost entirely based on promising things it can't deliver, like taking over industries like journalism where ethics and integrity are primary concerns, or even taking over industries like software where the real work, when you get all the way down to the bottom of it, is political organizing
Yes, find sand, dig hole, insert head and hope bad things will not happen at the other end.
This genii is out of the bottle! It will progress at e-speed and it will impact many of us. It will create new jobs and extinguish others.
It is already smarter than some = it will get smarter. Ways to cull hallucinations are emerging, but they will never eliminate them. Hallucinations are analogous to human 'flight of speculation', AKA creative insights - where many good/bad ideas come from - which we prune back with others. AI will inspect/assess these hallucinations and learn to trim them - probably with an AI consensus mechanism involved - one or two years at the current pace will see mechanisms to cull hallucinations in the same way we cull them.
It's still a tool for regression to the mean. It actively discourages human innovation by saying anything worth having should come to you with ease.
Roko's Fallacy is that the basilisk eats the people who didn't appease it. It eats the people who did appease it!
Keep generating your own original creative work and ideas like AI doesn't exist, and in theory it will learn from you and amplify your contribution.
Spend a lot of time using AI, and you won't even be exposed to new viewpoints anymore or new styles, not even new people. You won't ever be inspired again, but rather your brain will learn to follow the AI, the very AI it thinks is following it. Both the content you produce and consume will be warm milk: very low standard deviation from blah. In an information theory sense, you will be producing and consuming almost no information, but rather you will have been reduced to an entity easily modeled, which incidentally is the moment at which you will be replaced by someone using that model.
I’d love to skip to the end of the AI capitalism any% speedrun.
We will emerge from the tunnel, still with LLMs, but they will be tastefully integrated as sub-components of greater systems.
The displaced software engineers will be hired back to do the janitorial work of scrubbing chatbots and all otherwise broken token-streaming text boxes off of the internet. Hopefully they get hired back on full time.
We will know who all the idiots are during that brief period of bag holding where the LinkedIn profiles are still plastered with nonsense like “Senior Principal AI Adopter & Ethics Officer.” It won’t matter, they will still fail up, but it will be funny.
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[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 33.6 ms ] threadDo you remember the day DeepSeek came out? Every. single. stock. took a dive. Yes, I think this situation is even more terrifying than the real estate bubble. Even as amazing as the tech is today, its value is still almost entirely based on promising things it can't deliver, like taking over industries like journalism where ethics and integrity are primary concerns, or even taking over industries like software where the real work, when you get all the way down to the bottom of it, is political organizing
Roko's Fallacy is that the basilisk eats the people who didn't appease it. It eats the people who did appease it!
Keep generating your own original creative work and ideas like AI doesn't exist, and in theory it will learn from you and amplify your contribution.
Spend a lot of time using AI, and you won't even be exposed to new viewpoints anymore or new styles, not even new people. You won't ever be inspired again, but rather your brain will learn to follow the AI, the very AI it thinks is following it. Both the content you produce and consume will be warm milk: very low standard deviation from blah. In an information theory sense, you will be producing and consuming almost no information, but rather you will have been reduced to an entity easily modeled, which incidentally is the moment at which you will be replaced by someone using that model.
We will emerge from the tunnel, still with LLMs, but they will be tastefully integrated as sub-components of greater systems.
The displaced software engineers will be hired back to do the janitorial work of scrubbing chatbots and all otherwise broken token-streaming text boxes off of the internet. Hopefully they get hired back on full time.
We will know who all the idiots are during that brief period of bag holding where the LinkedIn profiles are still plastered with nonsense like “Senior Principal AI Adopter & Ethics Officer.” It won’t matter, they will still fail up, but it will be funny.