Ask HN: In 15 years, what will a gas station visit look like?
This struck me as an interesting sci-fi writing exercise. Gas stations are everywhere; but they'll likely change considerably going forward.
Imagine visiting a gas station in 2040:
• will it sell gas?
• what convenience items will it sell?
• who, if anyone, will staff it?
• what payment methods will it accept?
• what signage and decor will it use?
• will it offer new services?
171 comments
[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 266 ms ] threadMost gas stations today only have one employee at a time so it seems hard to cut that down (and not much incentive tbh).
Electric cars today are still under 10%. Cars last a really long time, so even if there is a huge surge in electric self-driving cars by 2030 there will still be lots of ICE cars on the road in 15 years.
https://www.axios.com/2022/07/15/gas-stations-prices-closing
Perhaps some larger chain will step in, and incorporate one dinky petrol station at each location? The safety issues probably rule out a chain restaurant, but maybe Walmart will become the go-to.
Petrol won’t go away overnight, but it will reach tipping points where it’s no longer cost effective to deliver it to areas or host a petrol station once an inflection point occurs with regards to demand.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/how-big-a-deal-is-walmarts-p...
https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2023/04/06/leading-the-ch...
https://www.plugshare.com/
https://supercharge.info/map
https://electrek.co/2023/10/20/cratering-motor-fuel-sales-in... (great comment on this: “Every day in the U.S. now there is enough EVs sold to displace an entire gas station-worth of fuel. Per day. And this is rapidly accelerating.”)
From a month and a half ago: "Walmart plans EV Charging network which will blanket the US within a few years" [1]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43814380
There are parts where you'd have people drive through the neighborhood at 3am and yank/cut the charging cables for the copper in them.
Rebates exist for a reason to install EV chargers at home. Certainly, it will take time, but the transition is inevitable at this point. The average daily round trip commute is less than 40 miles, which is ~12 hours of charging on a 15A 120V household outlet. Electricity is ubiquitous, and installing interfaces is relatively inexpensive and straightforward.
Advancements in AI might make it possible to have attendant-less stations if you can have automated sales of snacks and other merchandise, and automated payments for chargers and gas, maybe you don't need an attendant on duty 24/7
Wow I didn’t realize adoption was so high in China
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/what-chinas-ev-market-...
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/11/21/the-us-energy-informati...
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/oil-demand-for-fuels-in-chi...
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/CNPC-Chin...
Vending machines solved the automated snack sales decades ago, except for the restocking.
Yes and especially diesel which will not go away for a few generations. There are no EV replacements for heavy trucks and they do not appear to be viable yet. 3500 through 7500 series. Battery tech will have to make science fiction level improvements. When those trucks are gone society comes to a stand-still. Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
what convenience items will it sell?
The popular versions of what they sell today and is known to bring in revenue.
who, if anyone, will staff it?
Mostly high-school kids, some people that do not have the confidence to move on and some with criminal backgrounds.
what payment methods will it accept?
Credit, Debit, Cash. Maybe bitcoin.
will it offer new services?
If they have the parking lot space then there may be battery swap stations to quickly swap out EV packs, offer paid upgrades to newer batteries and battery tech every few years.
Janus Electric has been converting prime movers to electric since 2019, listed on the ASX this year, and have demonstrated viability.
* https://primemovermag.com.au/body-electric/
* https://www.januselectric.com.au/news/janus-unveils-first-el...
* https://www.januselectric.com.au/
So far they've barely made a dent in global big truck numbers but they're planning to expand over the next few years .. and there are others in the same business.
> Comparison to earth moving equipment in mines do not apply.
Why not? These fleets have been quasi electric since the 1970s, have serious ongoing research into fully renewable replacement paths, and are responsible for a massive chunk of transport fuel usage given the sheer number of mines in the world and numbers such as iron ore mining in one Australia state alone accounting for > than a billion tonnes moved by trucks alone (including overburden, etc).
These aren't trucks that refuel at gas stations, but they are a considerable sink for fossil fuels.
They move slowly on dedicated predictable paths all controlled by the same system that choreographs their movements, controls who goes in for system charges. Some of them are EV in the sense they use electricity but they have no batteries. More of them now have batteries but they can in no way be compared to the usage patterns of human use cases. This is why batteries have been viable for them since the 70's. Massive inefficient monsters on slow moving controlled paths. Some of them charge whilst moving using massive cables laid out in the roads in the mine. In a mine slow and steady wins the race. In the rest of the world it would be chaos or more specifically not viable.
Big-rigs also make sense as the fleet owned and controlled trucks can charge at dedicated yards and will all move in coordinated efforts.
There are still no viable 3500 through 7500 series trucks operated by small to medium business owners and those run the short haul of many industries in the USA. As such the diesel versions of them will be around for a very long time. I keep an eye on battery tech for my own selfish reasons and have yet to see anything that would power those trucks without pushing them over their weight limits to the point of making them legally unusable. As is business owners skirt the line when they are on the scales. Heavy batteries would require them to cut their loads and effectively also eat their profits and waste a lot of their time making multiple trips. If they become viable I will see it right away as I am surrounded by them and business owners will do what makes financial sense. I will be the first to change opinions on this when it is a profitable option.
The closest I have yet to see in Science Fiction levels of battery improvement is 3D printed solid state batteries and they have a long way to go just to make it into tools, cell phones, etc... That needed to happen a decade ago if we want to see them in big trucks within 15 years. I would love to be proven wrong ... for my own selfish reasons unrelated to electric vehicles.
(No, don't ask me how that would work. I don't know. I just think that private enterprise could do it quite quickly, if they saw a way to turn a profit doing so.)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share
As I have a classic car that I intend to keep running, I suspect eventually (e.g. not by 2040), buying fuel for it will be similar to buying pre-mixed fuel for small two-stroke engines, like leafblowers and chainsaws: go to Auto Zone and buy a few gallons of fuel. Auto Zone and friends won't be going anywhere - EVs still need wiper blades, brake pads, and other incidentals.
Between cities they will be as now a rest stop mainly with fuel. Maybe more charging where you park.
Whether we staff or not depends on if we adopt Japanese culture. In Tokyo they have unattended fast food shops, and somewhat novelty robot servers at some restaurants.
I predict 50% chance of that happening. It may be driven to buy robots and automation becoming cheaper than labour plus mass surveillance making it less appetizing to steal.
Perhaps it can work well for certain commercial niches, time will tell.
But personally I agree it's perfect for, say, urban trains, with predictable maintenance. But if Japan keeps investing we may see more than that.
Here in Norway we just have had a handful of hydrogen stations, and of those two went out of business.
Meanwhile almost all new cars here are BEV, even out in many rural areas BEVs are 50% of new sales.
A local store can relatively easily and cheaply install a supercharger. Installing a hydrogen pump is presumably much more expensive as it requires more space and more complex equipment. And it needs refilling by truck, while electricty just flows.
And while EV chargers or cars can catch fire during charging, hydrogen can explode violently[1][2] when mixed with air (the one in Norway registered as an earthquake 30 km, 20 miles, away).
As I said perhaps it will find some niche uses, but widescale adoptation seems very unlikely to me.
[1]: https://norwaytoday.info/news/explosion-sandvika-hydrogen-ta...
[2]: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/safety-concerns-gr...
- now having larger buildings to incorporate more convenience products (mostly foodstuffs) for sale - more pumps
Today, every gas station is self-serve, and often you can pay by card at the pump.
50 years ago, plenty of gas stations still had attendants. One guy would fill the tank (possibly with 'leaded'), another might give your windshield a quick wipe. You could ask for them to check your oil, too.
Not too much has changed since the '80s though.
That’s definitely an innovation that creates convenience but does it really change the commercial function of the station much? You are still essentially transacting for fuel, which is what gas stations have done for decades. My guess is while a lot of stations provide that ability out of customer demand, but the owners would probably rather the customer come in and buy the over priced soda and Doritos along with the gas purchase. I don’t think owner-operators make hardly anything on the fuel sales.
With my comment I was thinking more along the lines of overall footprint of the station and what products are being sold. I think self-service pushed the ability for stations to service more pumps and with a person anchored to a register inside instead of outside attending to the pumps, it allowed the ability of stations to expand to more a mini-mart concept easily where more profitable products (to the station owner) are sold.
EV charging might help bring people into the food, but i suspect you don’t “turn tables” fast enough to make EV charging beneficial enough to bringing enough people inside to warrant devoting a lot of space to that activity.
And with the electric charging times people will certainly leave the car to shop for something.
So the exact opposite
North America has stuck to minimum of 1 staff at all times. No staff = closed.
Maybe that can change.
Not true at all at least in California. I regularly fill at unattended stations late at night past midnight. The credit card operated pumps are operable 24/7.
Years ago we were traveling in remote areas of Nevada and running out of gas around 2am, desperately trying to find a gas station (this is before mobile phones, so couldn't just look things up, although maybe even today might be too remote for signal). Finally rolled into a small village with a gas station but everything was dark, so we thought we'll take a nap there until whenever they open. But I noticed the pump light was on, so I gave it a try. Yes, it worked!
Mostly sells food and soft drinks, so hot dogs, fresh sandwiches, baked goods, with much more seating area so you can sit and eat while your car charges.
Has almost no car-related stuff, just one or two small sections of blinker fluid, wunder-baum and such.
And looking at the current trend, there will be far fewer of them, mainly located at strategic positions. The small, local gas stations will go away.
https://www.amazon.com/Blinker-Fluid-16oz-Great-Prank/dp/B07...
I remember I was impressed by this. The only country I drink gas-station-coffee is Finland (because where else can you find coffee in the middle of nowhere?). So right after I read that article, and the first time I saw a BP gas station I got a coffee. It was 'cheap' and I assume EUR per mg of caffeine was 'ok', but the quality/flavor.. omfg. Also, volcanic hot, so thanks but no thanks.
[0]: https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/433444/bp-doesnt-just...
With the hot-dogs, fries, pizzas, snacks, milk, cereal, alcohol (in some countries), they remind me of "The Profit" with Marcus Lemonis, where he is trying to use each square-inch from a retail store to sell stuff.
With cars lasting around 15 years, we can expect many gas stations to have closed by 2040.
Step one: What is todays delta to 2010? It is a lot, so this is where smart people would start.
So we'll skip that.
Many cars bought today will be around. Many gas stations bought today will be around.
People will be driving further. Do we have to say for the stupid people it won't be electric.
People will be more isolated and not want human contact, digital payments from the pump standard. Food and beverages are as massive part of the profit. So what does that mean?
Automated fueling so your hands don't get dirty will exist. Cars will be able to communicate so they will queue you more efficiently.
There will be electric charging places. They are not "gas stations", you'll get a split. It's interesting to calculate what they would be. Land value vs time to recharge. They can be multistory. This is a whole other thing.
The US? After a decade plus of authoritarian rule and the near outlaw of EVs, we’ll have exactly the same gas stations and cars, all produced right here because the rest of the world doesn’t want them.
I think that about covers it. All of the above means an EV-hostile environment here.
Oh, and our biggest EV maker is a Neo-Nazi supporter.
We don't "outlaw" cigarettes, for example, but I would call the current taxes on them a "near" outlaw.
We can debate how much EVs should be taxed, but they're using the bloody roads, aren't they?
Which, as an American largely being governed by Virginians, I cant say Im surprised.
Though it’s actually about 35,000 miles. I did the math wrong.
HN is usually happy to remind everyone that the damage a vehicle causes to a road scales with the fourth power of its weight. A Tesla model 3 is about triple the wear on the road surface compared to a Toyota Camry.
I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y. When Im looking to buy a truck, Im not considering the Model Y (although In peeved the Ranger isnt hybrid). I have never considered a Tesla (Im not in the market for another sedan) but if I were my comparison would be something like the Accord.
But sure let's compare the F150 to the model Y: back in 2021 - a base F150 weighed about 4000lb, less than a base Model Y and an F150 supercab V6 F150 was <4500 lb. [1] A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Sure, I can configure the F150 to weigh 5500, but few need to and few do. So the point stands:
The Model Y weighs as much as a half ton truck.
Meanwhile a Ford Maverick, a truck Ford can't make enough to meet demand, weighs 3700 lb
[1] https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America...
Exactly. Tires are formulated to the load they are designed to carry. It's why semis don't have to make a pit stop every 2 miles for new tires.
But, like I said, brake dust is _far_ worse, and nearly eliminated with EVs:
https://electrek.co/2025/05/27/another-way-electric-cars-cle...
> I dont get why we're comparing F150s to the Model Y.
Because one is the most popular gas car, the other the most popular EV. Removing an engine and adding batteries increases weight, sure, but that doesn't have anything to do with the average weight that's on the road. You have to tax things based on what's actually out there, not what _would_ be out there if you took the existing fleet and turned them EV. Batteries are expensive, so there's incentive not to use so much and make the car smaller and more efficient instead. That doesn't happen with gas cars.
> A long range model Y weighs about a little bit less, but the difference is less than 100 lb.
Yeah, I know. That's all I was saying. You said the average EV weighed more. In fact, it's less.
It is more stark than that, though. The most popular F150 in 2025 is the Lariat SuperCrew, which has a 5300 lb curb weight. The model Y has a curb weight of 4400 pounds.
The next most popular gas car is some Chevy pickup. The next more popular EV is the Model 3.
The brake dust is a valid point but negated by hybrid drivetrains.
But it's all a wash. No one cares about externalities; neither the rich prog virtue signaling in an EV nor (obviously) the hick rolling coal. If they did there would be popular support for lowered speed limits and there isnt.
Suffice it to say that if all cars magically became EVs something in the tax code would have to change to pay for road maintence.
Nowhere close.
In my corner of America the gas tax comes out to be $0.96/gal, or $480/year if you only drive 15k miles and average 30 mpg.
Federal gas tax is $0.18. Gas registration is $0. New EV registration is $250. Or actually, it's looking like $500 now. That's like you driving your 30 mpg gas car 83,000 miles a year.
NGL, I drive a gas-powered Jetta (I wish it was diesel, but oh well) and if I can't get gas, I can't drive. While I'm lucky enough to live where there's some sort of public transit, that's not a thing in a lot of cities. Without the political will or the budget to start adding public transportation RIGHT THE HELL NOW, if ICE goes away, our economy is screwed.
Anyway, just funny to now be talking about gas stations in 15 years.
Or instead of trucks you could imagine that the left lane on highways could be replaced by some kind of train on rails that your car could dock to. In that train you’d have the same crap you have in current gas stations: mostly toilets and food stuff.
Cars docking to stuff is something that really clicks with me, but you could really go one step further away. You could split cars between the part that runs and the part that carries passengers. The part that carries people could be some kind of capsule akin to a boat container that could be loaded onto something else. When on the highway, this cabin could be put on some giant train that would carry hundreds of these capsules and when you need to get off the highway, your capsule would be loaded on some independent single-capsule vehicle, that would drive you where you need to go.
It’s probably all terrible ideas because that would make everything a lot less resilient to problems in terms of operation, but you said sci fi :-)
Oh and yeah 15 years is way too short to see that kind of changes.
On highways, it will be a different situation. There will be plenty of gas and diesel still available, as the remaining business from towns becomes more concentrated. You won't find a gas station without a restaurant attached though. Fast chargers will be common, but ultra-fast ones won't be as common as we'd like, as they will want to keep you just long enough to buy a meal, etc.
https://www.gridserve.com/electric-vehicle-charging/electric...
I have a really hard time understanding the pushback to elctrification.
Very fewe people (like almost none) drive more than 300 miles in a day 8-/
Most people in the plains states where the resistance is highest, live in single family homes where they could easily charge overnight.
I know people that routinely travel in EVs between Mendocino county and San Diego county. Roughly the distance between NY and Georgia.
As far as the cold goes, somehow Norway is dealing with it, given they have the highest ratio of EVs of any country at this point. The battery tech is also catching up to this, and charge times in general, at least in China 8-/
I would assume they are forced to recharge multiple times over that distance, which might be fine - you'd have to refill with gas/petrol over that distance as well, but the difference between 10 minutes verses an hour or so unless I'm really missing both the range and time to recharge for EVs.