So, this is the evolution of Ukraine into the west / China proxy war that I was worried that it would become back in 2014.
Interesting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
> Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China
If that's true, Russia winning the war isn't acceptable to China either. Sadly for Ukraine, I suspect a long war that gradually bleeds Russia dry is the ideal outcome for most of the large players.
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[ 4.7 ms ] story [ 27.1 ms ] threadInteresting object lesson in how slow motion disasters unfold.
People in the west in general fail to understand the fundamental cultural underpinnings that guide Chinese (and largely Russian as well) behaviour on the global stage, causing them to badly miscalculate their steps. (I am not claiming to have special insight myself, only to observe the obvious misalignment of perceptions and incentives)
China, in particular, seems to me to be tightly wedged between several acute pressures in this situation.
If that's true, Russia winning the war isn't acceptable to China either. Sadly for Ukraine, I suspect a long war that gradually bleeds Russia dry is the ideal outcome for most of the large players.