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I would have agreed a few weeks ago. But I can't anymore, the limitation I see is scope size and not capability. And available context sizes will just get bigger
Have you seen LLM play chess? They would not best an average 6 years old who just learned the rules. I doubt giving them more context would help. There are some thing you can't just parrot your way out.

And I would easily argue that it's harder to copy the behavior of a good software engineer than it is to copy the moves of a good chess players.

Not even talking about understanding the business logic you are actually implementing. Which LLM seems as far as understanding chess.

There are several steps missing from:

A startup founder uses AI to create an MVP

to

They secure funding based on the demo

to

They find themselves unable to move beyond that initial prototype

I have trouble believing tech investors throwing money towards a founder that shows a vibe coded product without anything else. The product might be vibe coded, BUT the founder show some traction or discovered a new market or something besides a demo. It does not really matter how a founder did the MVP, they did not create google. They just showed, through the MVP, something to investors. What happens next, after money, i doubt it's vibe coded.

It’s the hype cycle. Are LLMs going to become invaluable to software engineering? Definitely. Are they going to do everything everyone on X says they will? Probably not. Right now we’re in the peak of inflated expectations.

Anecdotally I’ve been using Claude to help me write a C# CLI tool from scratch. The more lines I let it write, the less and less I understand the code. Can I copy/paste it and it works? Probably 90% of the time. When I have to go and fix it, it is a huge burden.

When I prompt it to do one singular function, it’s amazing. That’s a clear and concise unit to understand.