Semi-related: I'm currently interested in how people get into the seemingly closed and endless maze of believing in things that are relatively provably incorrect or at odds with their own interests.
My daughter has recently been diagnosed with an eating disorder, and she cannot get past wanting to lose weight, no matter that she's in hospital due to her heart rate having slowed down to alarming levels. She still wants it to go slower, as a challenge, as a goal, to show how strong she is in fighting her own body's will to live.
It's fucking crazy, but it's her reality. I do not understand how this kind of fantasy gets a foothold. I feel like the power of an idea is woefully underestimated.
Same goes with conspiracy theories. Maybe an idea has to fit like a puzzle piece into a real life scenario as a convenient surface-level explanation for something unpleasant or just unresolved.
I used to think the brain was a logic machine, but I think there are strong elements of it that are coping mechanisms. Cling to a fantasy that makes unpleasant thing less unpleasant. Don't know how that relates to potentially starving oneself to death, but that seems to be entirely on the table for ye olde brain.
I am so sorry to be this guy, but did she tried CBT with a trained professionnal? You should allow her to vet the therapists (some are bad, other are worse, but good ones definitely exist).
I'm not in the "you should seek help" camp, at all, but for eating disorders in particular, randomized trials show that CBT is extremely effective, on the short and long term.
> She still wants it to go slower, as a challenge, as a goal, to show how strong she is in fighting her own body's will to live.
I closely know an 18-year-old who decided to show his body that there are no limits in sport. He trains an insane amount of time (more than professional athletes) despite his body not following up.
He had a heart alert, and the cardiologist told him that the next time they will meet at his cardiac arrest, if he is lucky.
This absolutely did not change his mind.
He is intelligent, has ample opportunities to go forward in whatever he would like, lives in Western Europe, comfortable life and what not. He could be an excellent amateur athlete, competing at university level and doing well but he just wants to get his body past the breaking point.
The only hope is that he will mature enough to realize this in a few years, hopefully survive by then without serious impacts on his health.
Everything I the head, and this is an uncharted world.
I have a cousin who went through many years, from her teens on, of anorexia, bulimia, and substance abuse. Somehow she still managed to become a vet with a decent career, with parents actively supporting her in getting different treatments.
The one treatment that finally broke the hold of her eating disorders was a live-in program at a hospital where all they did was, as a group, prepare and consume three square meals a day. It was like nutrition 101 coupled with some basic household management. Her words: "It had never been laid out like that for me, and I just didn't know it."
Does that mean it would work for your daughter? Maybe, but one obvious thing was that it was the right treatment at the right time for my cousin. A decade earlier she'd probably have blown it off or missed the point. The only thing I can say worked for her, is her and her family not giving up, hanging on and trying different things, until some magical combination of action and receptiveness met up.
As a friend to others with similar issues, I've seen the same thing: it's usually a lucky combination of action and circumstance. No treatment is guaranteed, no approach failproof. As you observe, the human brain is, in large part, a bunch of coping mechanisms (most therapists these days would nod excitedly at that understanding). It's not reasoning, it's reflexive defensives, and can take a long time to untangle.
Don't lose hope, and keep trying. And consider counselling for yourself and your spouse. This is traumatizing to you too, and getting support yourself to keep at it also helps.
I used to run IT for a rehab healthcare company that did chemical dependency and eating disorders. The number one thing to understand here is that she has mental health problems, that is the root of this. She's not choose to believe fantasy, there are mental illness aspects that are warping her reasoning processes. She needs to engage with therapists as soon as possible. I'd be happy to make a couple of suggestions.
But why does it matter if you're on the fringe or not? Galileo was on the fringe, but he ended up wrong. Hitler was very popular and not a fringe person after he assumed power. Yet, he was pretty wrong.
Somehow I bet Kate Blackwood is certain that she's not on the fringe. She probably also thinks she's on the side of righteous change and history, something that already suggests she's not in the center of popular thought.
I'm sure she also feels that people who disagree with her are on the fringe.
Note that the study didn't test for mainstream conspiracy theories. In such a case I presume the conspiracy theorists correctly determine that their beliefs are mainstream.
There is then also the question of non-conspiracy fringe theories. Do people who believe them still think that they are mainstream?
Can't this statement be generalized from "conspiracy theorists" to "most people"? E.g, "Religious people unaware their their religion is in the minority"? Unless a person has subjected their belief to rigorous scrutiny and debate, they will probably be unaware about how many people in the world agree or disagree with it.
This paper runs very parallel to Dunning-Kruger, and it's surprising that nobody here has commented on it (although the paper itself DOES reference Dunning-Kruger). It's a bit sad, really. When you realize that most people that buy into this stuff are trapped by a lack of cognitive ability, rather than being rooted in malice. There's a dose of https://harmful.cat-v.org/people/basic-laws-of-human-stupidi... in there too, as even well educated, otherwise intelligent people can get trapped in these conspiracy theories.
"Conspiracy believers not only consistently overestimated their performance on numeracy and perception tests"...
Compared to:
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is defined as the tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability."
The dichotomy of conspiracy theory / not conspiracy theory is semantic poison. This entire article is reinforcement. Do you see it?
Are you the kind of person who believes convincing sounding research from an Ivy League school posted on social media and wikipedia articles? Is your epistemology based in socialmediaism?
I can’t remember where I heard it, maybe a Joe Rogan clip, but he made a good point that believing that there are _no_ conspiracies is also an extreme viewpoint that is obviously wrong, given that some conspiracy theories eventually turned out to be conspiracy facts.
Here's an idea: treat conspiracy theory as theory, an explanation of a set of facts, rather than as social contagion or pathological disorder. Allow open discussion of all sides of an issue, admit controversial facts, and structure the discussion in such a way that truthfulness and explanatory power rises to the top. I'm picturing some kind of hybrid of Reddit and Wikipedia.
Censorship, ostracism, and certain debunking styles are counterproductive in the sense that they harden the "conspiracy theorist" in his beliefs, confirming that "the establishment" is protecting sacred cows and forbidden knowledge. These approaches are unnecessarily combative and condescending. I think a more open approach is called for.
Sabine Hossenfelder handled "flat earth theory" in a way I found refreshing. She said, "Huh, this is interesting. I appreciate that they aren't afraid to question fundamental assumptions. That is a scientific attitude. But here's why I think they're wrong."
The term "conspiracy theory" is a psychological kill shot designed to socially ostracize anyone who questions the mainstream (read: elite) narrative, instilling fear in questioning that narrative.
Yes, there are crazy people who think crazy things. There are also sane people who think "crazy" things might be true, but keep it to themselves out of fear of the social ostracization associated with being called a "conspiracy theorist." As designed.
This is tautological. They’re effectively defining conspiracy theories to be things which are not widely believed, and then proclaiming that the things which are not widely believed are not widely believed…
Their definition of conspiracy theory is found in Appendix A, where they just present an ad-hoc list of things they personally believe are false beliefs. Some of the things they present are very widely believed, and at least a few of them have actually been proven true (more or less).
It's always like this with such papers. 100% of them are pseudo-science.
When I think of "classical" conspiracy theorists, like the JFK assassination or the moon landings, I think of somebody who believes that they have special knowledge that most people do not have. They believe themselves to be a valiant minority struggling against an oppressive force -- one that has gotten to practically everybody except them.
I suspect that conspiracy theories have gone mainstream, and have categorically changed in the process. These beliefs aren't fringe any more. They may not be held by a majority, but they no longer need to seek out obscure chat rooms to share them. They'll be affirmed in the media, by politicians, and by many of their neighbors.
I constantly see beliefs dubbed as "conspiracy theory" later found to be actual true facts. Does that indicate that truth is sometimes on the fringe, and if yes, then what "fringe" really is?
The section on measuring over-confidence is interesting, specifically how they address the shortcoming of self-reporting confidence (if you're bad at the task in the first place, you're also going to be bad at estimating your performance, where the act of estimating resembles the task itself).
Another fun activity is to visit the appendix (p. 47) which lists all of the True and False Conspiracies used in their assessment.
33 comments
[ 7.6 ms ] story [ 607 ms ] threadI do believe their coup worked. Next the views asserting this move into fringe conspiracy and the ouroboros continues devouring its own.
My daughter has recently been diagnosed with an eating disorder, and she cannot get past wanting to lose weight, no matter that she's in hospital due to her heart rate having slowed down to alarming levels. She still wants it to go slower, as a challenge, as a goal, to show how strong she is in fighting her own body's will to live.
It's fucking crazy, but it's her reality. I do not understand how this kind of fantasy gets a foothold. I feel like the power of an idea is woefully underestimated.
Same goes with conspiracy theories. Maybe an idea has to fit like a puzzle piece into a real life scenario as a convenient surface-level explanation for something unpleasant or just unresolved.
I used to think the brain was a logic machine, but I think there are strong elements of it that are coping mechanisms. Cling to a fantasy that makes unpleasant thing less unpleasant. Don't know how that relates to potentially starving oneself to death, but that seems to be entirely on the table for ye olde brain.
Careful what you consider plausible folks!
I'm not in the "you should seek help" camp, at all, but for eating disorders in particular, randomized trials show that CBT is extremely effective, on the short and long term.
I closely know an 18-year-old who decided to show his body that there are no limits in sport. He trains an insane amount of time (more than professional athletes) despite his body not following up.
He had a heart alert, and the cardiologist told him that the next time they will meet at his cardiac arrest, if he is lucky.
This absolutely did not change his mind.
He is intelligent, has ample opportunities to go forward in whatever he would like, lives in Western Europe, comfortable life and what not. He could be an excellent amateur athlete, competing at university level and doing well but he just wants to get his body past the breaking point.
The only hope is that he will mature enough to realize this in a few years, hopefully survive by then without serious impacts on his health.
Everything I the head, and this is an uncharted world.
The one treatment that finally broke the hold of her eating disorders was a live-in program at a hospital where all they did was, as a group, prepare and consume three square meals a day. It was like nutrition 101 coupled with some basic household management. Her words: "It had never been laid out like that for me, and I just didn't know it."
Does that mean it would work for your daughter? Maybe, but one obvious thing was that it was the right treatment at the right time for my cousin. A decade earlier she'd probably have blown it off or missed the point. The only thing I can say worked for her, is her and her family not giving up, hanging on and trying different things, until some magical combination of action and receptiveness met up.
As a friend to others with similar issues, I've seen the same thing: it's usually a lucky combination of action and circumstance. No treatment is guaranteed, no approach failproof. As you observe, the human brain is, in large part, a bunch of coping mechanisms (most therapists these days would nod excitedly at that understanding). It's not reasoning, it's reflexive defensives, and can take a long time to untangle.
Don't lose hope, and keep trying. And consider counselling for yourself and your spouse. This is traumatizing to you too, and getting support yourself to keep at it also helps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_projection_fallacy
https://www.lesswrong.com/w/typical-mind-fallacy
Somehow I bet Kate Blackwood is certain that she's not on the fringe. She probably also thinks she's on the side of righteous change and history, something that already suggests she's not in the center of popular thought.
I'm sure she also feels that people who disagree with her are on the fringe.
There is then also the question of non-conspiracy fringe theories. Do people who believe them still think that they are mainstream?
"Conspiracy believers not only consistently overestimated their performance on numeracy and perception tests"...
Compared to:
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is defined as the tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability."
Are you the kind of person who believes convincing sounding research from an Ivy League school posted on social media and wikipedia articles? Is your epistemology based in socialmediaism?
Censorship, ostracism, and certain debunking styles are counterproductive in the sense that they harden the "conspiracy theorist" in his beliefs, confirming that "the establishment" is protecting sacred cows and forbidden knowledge. These approaches are unnecessarily combative and condescending. I think a more open approach is called for.
Sabine Hossenfelder handled "flat earth theory" in a way I found refreshing. She said, "Huh, this is interesting. I appreciate that they aren't afraid to question fundamental assumptions. That is a scientific attitude. But here's why I think they're wrong."
Yes, there are crazy people who think crazy things. There are also sane people who think "crazy" things might be true, but keep it to themselves out of fear of the social ostracization associated with being called a "conspiracy theorist." As designed.
Okay?
It's always like this with such papers. 100% of them are pseudo-science.
When I think of "classical" conspiracy theorists, like the JFK assassination or the moon landings, I think of somebody who believes that they have special knowledge that most people do not have. They believe themselves to be a valiant minority struggling against an oppressive force -- one that has gotten to practically everybody except them.
I suspect that conspiracy theories have gone mainstream, and have categorically changed in the process. These beliefs aren't fringe any more. They may not be held by a majority, but they no longer need to seek out obscure chat rooms to share them. They'll be affirmed in the media, by politicians, and by many of their neighbors.
https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/d5fz2_v3
The section on measuring over-confidence is interesting, specifically how they address the shortcoming of self-reporting confidence (if you're bad at the task in the first place, you're also going to be bad at estimating your performance, where the act of estimating resembles the task itself).
Another fun activity is to visit the appendix (p. 47) which lists all of the True and False Conspiracies used in their assessment.