We analyzed hundreds of stock recommendation videos from finance YouTubers (aka finfluencers) and backtested the results. Turns out, doing the opposite of what they say—literally inverting the advice—beat the S&P 500 by over +6.8% in annual returns (but with higher volatility).
Contrarians betting against the herd have often been very successful. For example, John Paulson and Michael Burry made billions by shorting CDOs that lead to the 2008 crisis. The movie "The Big Short" is an Ok dramatization of how it all unfolded.
When you really think about it. If these people were really good, would they need to be influencers? Wouldn't they actually be spending all of their time managing either their own money or some other big money fund?
So on average they probably are not that good as they really need to do all the marketing. Which is actually quite big time commitment.
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[ 2.1 ms ] story [ 27.9 ms ] threadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/05/heres-why-dead-investors-out...
Same herd mentality, different soapbox.
- Vix, IV vs realized/historical
- option flows
- market makers gex, skews, (1st 3 probably best src of edge)
- /NQ and /ES trading volume,
- bond yld curve, credit spreads, how much prim dealers hold after long auctions, PBC holdings
- metals
- geopolitical: Europe / middle East / China/ South America
- energy
- currency
- commodity prompt spreads, contangos
So on average they probably are not that good as they really need to do all the marketing. Which is actually quite big time commitment.