68 comments

[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 59.0 ms ] thread
Quick link to the tsunami view: https://www.tsunami.gov/

Just “watch” level for US west coast, but warning level for Hawaii and Alaska.

Watch has been upgraded to Warning (Aleutian Islands and California from Cape Mendocino to the Oregon border) or Advisory (California from Cape Mendocino south, and pretty much everything from the California/Oregon border to Alaska until you reach the Aleutian Islands, it looks like.)
That area of Russia has seen quite a bit of massive seismic activity over the last couple of weeks. I keep getting earthquake alerts about each one.
Has anyone heard how bad it was in Petropovlosk? USGS estimates "severe" shaking with the possibility of moderate to heavy damage and a chance of fatalities.

They have had quite a swarm of quakes there over the last couple of weeks, including one that was M7+ around the 20th.

(comment deleted)
From what I see in Russian-language news, only relatively minor damage. I've lived in Petropavlovsk, it's an ugly city in various states of disrepair, but they do take seismic reinforcements seriously, like mag 7 should cause zero damage according to plan.

It's basically immune to tsunamis as it's protected by a bay with narrow entrance that extinguishes the waves, also most of the city is raised at least 10m above the sea.

Current official news:

Around 3k were evacuated in the region to safe areas as a precaution: aftershocks are expected for a month.

Some buildings (including hospitals) have cracks due to an earthquake.

Some minor damage to power lines, some near-shore flooding at some businesses.

All in all, it’s ok.

Can the wave be seen and tracked from planes above? I know they can travel at upwards of 300+mph but given the distance from Russia to the west coast seems like it should be able to be tracked.
There are planes, buoys and other things being mentioned on the news here in Japan as ways things are being tracked. Maybe not what you meant, but tracking the wave isn't necessarily correct. There are many waves, and the initial wave is often (in this case also) not the largest.

The news mentioned a previous similar event where the largest wave was 4 hours later.

AIS map of vessels in the area: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:166.7/cent...

A fairly small US fishing vessel is in relative proximity... https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:43...

Talked to the AI which said: MMI 4.5 in the context of an M8.7 quake, for your vessel: Danger level from shaking alone: Very low in open water. Danger from tsunami in the open ocean: Very low (unless extremely close to epicenter). Prime danger: If near shore, from tsunami run-up, NOT the shaking. Actionable advice: Remain in deep water until tsunami warnings have cleared; proceed to port only when officially safe. Monitor official maritime and tsunami alerts closely after any major earthquake.

That's interesting. Mental note, if piloting a vessel in a tsunami, head to deep water.

Japan forecasting tsunamis up to 3m across basically the entire eastern coast. First waves will hit within 10 minutes.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/kishou-saigai/tsunami/

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/ (live, Japanese)

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/live/ (live, English)

The east coast is also where the vast majority of Japan's population lives, and was previously hit by the 2011 tsunami (Fukushima and all that). We're about to find out the hard way what lessons they have learned.

Update: First detected wave in Nemuro, Hokkaido (northernmost Japan) was only 30cm. There may be more. Waves of 3-4m have apparently already hit Kamchatka in Russia.

Update 2: We're almost an hour in and highest waves to actually hit Japan remain only 40 cm. It looks unlikely that this will cause major damage.

(comment deleted)
I've been monitoring the situation, but it appears nothing ever happens.
Question: Could you cancel out a tsunami with a underwater explosion, similar to active noise canceling ?
(comment deleted)
My wife decided to not travel to Japan due to an impending warning from a manga for July 2025. I have been making fun of her all month only to get this tsunami warning now!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop....

> The 2021 reprint capitalizing off this revived popularity warned of a "real disaster" in July 2025, causing a minor case of mass hysteria in 2025 when summer trips to Japan from East Asia decreased markedly and several airlines even cancelled flights.

Well, you can continue to make fun of her because, fortunately, this has turned out to be basically nothing (for Japan, anyway).
the manga was about a mega quake in Japan, not a tsunami from Russia
Is your wife generally fearful like that or this was a rare occurrence and she can actually have some introspection on that and has a fighting chance of coming on top of that?

I know few folks like that, for them it comes from general lack of understanding of reality, society and human nature, a lot of superstition in various directions and similar traits. Suffice to say its very hard to live up to one's potential in life with such mindset, but such things could be conquered if there is enough resolve.

What happens to the US West coast?
It moves to Arizona? Or is that the other "big one"?
All the tectonics and volcanos that are underground are linked, these seismic events aren't just isolated on islands.

I hate to say this but we can expect a major event in August. All I can tell people is to prepare but I see people just with blank expression, there is almost no concern at all which reminds me very much of November 2019.

to put this in perspective, and please, if you work for USGS or whatever, correct me if i am wrong: this is roughly the same magnitude of the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California.

i think i got the scale the wrong way around, the magnitudes reported now are only larger (than Richter) with smaller quakes compared to the Richter; it looks like 8.8ML ~= M8.8. Sorry, i looked at the chart the wrong way around.

I'm actually not sure the Northridge earthquake was cited in the Richter scale, most references I see have it as about a 6.7, which based on the USGS catalog, was it's moment magnitude 6.7 Mw

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci3144585/...

And today's earthquake for comparison:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000qw60...

And some information of Magnitude types: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/magnitude-t...

I think it's probably safe to assume, that today's earthquake is much more energetic at least.

(comment deleted)