Self driving car companies have been trying to get into NYC for a while now. It's a prestigious and sought after testing ground.
The now defunct Cruise automation was in talks to test in NYC beginning in 2018. Cruise was welcomed by the governor but shut down by the Mayor's office, however not before acquiring a small garage and filling it with (maybe) a dozen robocars.
Cruise kept the space open for a few years, presumably they did some mapping but mostly they were just twiddling their thumbs waiting for their permit to go through, and of course that never happened.
Waymo has only been granted a limited testing permit, they still have a fight ahead of them before Robotaxis will be taking passengers in NYC. The Taxi and Limousine comission isn't going to take it lying down.
Self-driving is one of the most interesting technologies of our times, from a legislative/social standpoint.
Will every large city in the globe be filled with self driving cars in 2035, or will the situation be roughly identical to 2025?
Honestly it feels like it could go either way - the last ten years have been such "one step forward, two steps sideways, one half step backwards" on every front - what the technology seems able to deliver on, what companies claim they can/will do, what regulators and the common people make of them, freak accidents that inevitably sway the popular opinion, etc.
Personally I hope the technology matures and becomes ubiquitous in my lifetime (the sooner the better), because I hate driving (a few acquaintances have been in grisly accidents due to drunk drivers coming the other way) and I just want to get in a car at 10p with my backpack in tow, lie down, and wake up at 7a 600 miles away.
> Driverless cars have clogged streets, obstructed emergency vehicles, and caused accidents, injuries and even deaths. They are a threat to pedestrians, cyclists and other drivers.
A human rideshare driver would never do any of this
I strongly believe that we are going to see many brands hit L4 and L5 before 2030.
Multiple manufacturers seem to be circling on the same advancements and leaps, they all seem to be working with each other to get regulations in place for them to deploy their cars.
I do believe we are about to see AV's version of "making reusable boosters being reused boring" moments with AVs where suddenly multiple companies are doing what others thought impossible years before. Even the much demeaned Tesla FSD is shockingly human-like and reliable on v13.
The issue that Waymo specifically is going to have is scalability. Unlike other brands who have AV, Waymo doesn't have manufacturing capabilities in-house currently nor logistic or a generalizable model. I think Waymo is definitely ahead of the pack but time will tell if the brands who went slower will pass them up due to Waymo not having a financial reason to push to financial viability on any timeline shorter than "after Google runs out of money".
If Waymo's plan is to have to map the entire US to be capable of driving in it, that's going to cost a lot of money and take a lot of time vs having cars that can roll out of the factory and drive straight to their assigned city unassisted.
As a European, US Unions seem absurd. I can't recall a Union in a country I lived in so blatantly agitating against technology (though I am sure you can find examples if you go looking). Maybe because they tend to be much much larger and represent broader slices of the economy, so they would advocate for retraining and education programs for the workers they represent.
In the context of autonomous busses in public transport I didn't see any statements by Verdi, the German union covering this sector, that opposed them in principle.
E.g. in Hamburg:
"Wenn das autonome Fahren dazu führt, dass der ÖPNV ausgebaut und der Takt höher wird, dann ist das ein positives Zeichen in Richtung der von uns geforderten dringend notwendigen Verkehrswende. Wir erwarten aber von den Gesellschaftern unter der Federführung unseres ersten Bürgermeisters Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finanzsenator Dr. Andreas Dressel und Verkehrssenator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, dass die Einführung von autonomen Verkehren unter Gewährung aller Mitbestimmungsrechte des Betriebsrates der Hamburger Hochbahn eingeführt wird – ganz im Sinne von Hamburg als Stadt der guten Arbeit mit Vorbildcharakter."
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If autonomous driving leads to an expansion of public transport and more frequent service, then that is a positive sign toward the urgently needed mobility transition that we are demanding. However, we expect the shareholders, under the leadership of our First Mayor Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finance Senator Dr. Andreas Dressel, and Transport Senator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, to ensure that the introduction of autonomous transport services is carried out with full respect for the co-determination rights of the works council of Hamburger Hochbahn — fully in line with Hamburg’s role as a city of good work and a model for others.
I predict one of the surprises, to some people anyway, is going to be that autonomous vehicles don't clog city streets. Uber's CEO recently remarked that Waymo vehicles complete more rides per day than 99% of human ride hailing drivers. The Waymo fleet in each of its service areas is remarkably small. It's an easy bet that a fully mature Waymo operation that competes toe to toe with human power ride hailing will need only a fraction of the number of human drivers in personal vehicles.
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 41.3 ms ] threadThe now defunct Cruise automation was in talks to test in NYC beginning in 2018. Cruise was welcomed by the governor but shut down by the Mayor's office, however not before acquiring a small garage and filling it with (maybe) a dozen robocars.
Cruise kept the space open for a few years, presumably they did some mapping but mostly they were just twiddling their thumbs waiting for their permit to go through, and of course that never happened.
Waymo has only been granted a limited testing permit, they still have a fight ahead of them before Robotaxis will be taking passengers in NYC. The Taxi and Limousine comission isn't going to take it lying down.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/gms-cruise-will-test-self-dr...
Will every large city in the globe be filled with self driving cars in 2035, or will the situation be roughly identical to 2025?
Honestly it feels like it could go either way - the last ten years have been such "one step forward, two steps sideways, one half step backwards" on every front - what the technology seems able to deliver on, what companies claim they can/will do, what regulators and the common people make of them, freak accidents that inevitably sway the popular opinion, etc.
Personally I hope the technology matures and becomes ubiquitous in my lifetime (the sooner the better), because I hate driving (a few acquaintances have been in grisly accidents due to drunk drivers coming the other way) and I just want to get in a car at 10p with my backpack in tow, lie down, and wake up at 7a 600 miles away.
A human rideshare driver would never do any of this
Multiple manufacturers seem to be circling on the same advancements and leaps, they all seem to be working with each other to get regulations in place for them to deploy their cars.
I do believe we are about to see AV's version of "making reusable boosters being reused boring" moments with AVs where suddenly multiple companies are doing what others thought impossible years before. Even the much demeaned Tesla FSD is shockingly human-like and reliable on v13.
The issue that Waymo specifically is going to have is scalability. Unlike other brands who have AV, Waymo doesn't have manufacturing capabilities in-house currently nor logistic or a generalizable model. I think Waymo is definitely ahead of the pack but time will tell if the brands who went slower will pass them up due to Waymo not having a financial reason to push to financial viability on any timeline shorter than "after Google runs out of money".
If Waymo's plan is to have to map the entire US to be capable of driving in it, that's going to cost a lot of money and take a lot of time vs having cars that can roll out of the factory and drive straight to their assigned city unassisted.
In the context of autonomous busses in public transport I didn't see any statements by Verdi, the German union covering this sector, that opposed them in principle.
E.g. in Hamburg:
"Wenn das autonome Fahren dazu führt, dass der ÖPNV ausgebaut und der Takt höher wird, dann ist das ein positives Zeichen in Richtung der von uns geforderten dringend notwendigen Verkehrswende. Wir erwarten aber von den Gesellschaftern unter der Federführung unseres ersten Bürgermeisters Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finanzsenator Dr. Andreas Dressel und Verkehrssenator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, dass die Einführung von autonomen Verkehren unter Gewährung aller Mitbestimmungsrechte des Betriebsrates der Hamburger Hochbahn eingeführt wird – ganz im Sinne von Hamburg als Stadt der guten Arbeit mit Vorbildcharakter."
---
If autonomous driving leads to an expansion of public transport and more frequent service, then that is a positive sign toward the urgently needed mobility transition that we are demanding. However, we expect the shareholders, under the leadership of our First Mayor Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finance Senator Dr. Andreas Dressel, and Transport Senator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, to ensure that the introduction of autonomous transport services is carried out with full respect for the co-determination rights of the works council of Hamburger Hochbahn — fully in line with Hamburg’s role as a city of good work and a model for others.
In San Francisco we just call it “a Waymo”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44986949