Germany's far-right AfD suffers series of candidate deaths ahead of local vote (bbc.com) 9 points by the-dude 10mo ago ↗ HN
[–] the-dude 10mo ago ↗ The article reads 6 deaths, today another died, so the tally is now 7.I thought HN might be a good place to discuss the odds of this.
[–] duxup 10mo ago ↗ This is one of those cases where how you frame the math either makes it seem more unlikely or just how the RNG of life played out.>North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.Personally I'm very much not a fan of knowing no facts about the deaths and jumping to conspiracy theories.This is one of those litmus tests to see how conspiracy theory prone you are I think.
[–] jfengel 10mo ago ↗ The first confounding factor that occurs to me: were they especially old?Politicians tend to be on the elderly side. Even more so for conservative politicians, I think, but I don't know much about AfD.If so, perhaps it's not quite as unlikely as the economist (quoted in TFA) thinks. But that's just speculation.
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[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 41.3 ms ] threadI thought HN might be a good place to discuss the odds of this.
>North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.
Personally I'm very much not a fan of knowing no facts about the deaths and jumping to conspiracy theories.
This is one of those litmus tests to see how conspiracy theory prone you are I think.
Politicians tend to be on the elderly side. Even more so for conservative politicians, I think, but I don't know much about AfD.
If so, perhaps it's not quite as unlikely as the economist (quoted in TFA) thinks. But that's just speculation.