Rising defaults on car loans, increasing term lengths for car loans, people living off credit cards, increasing unemployment, reduced job availability, divisive politics, unstable foreign relations, out of control spending/debt, … and yet a stock market that is at record highs. I also wonder why gold and crypto are doing so well at the same time. Everything is high but it seems like a bad situation. And yet, people will get laughed at for predicting a recession or some other event, because it’s hard to predict the timing. Still, I feel like something has to give.
When DXY (the dollar index) goes down, share prices go up as a result (after excluding all other price signals). If dollars are worth less, then it takes more dollars to buy a share of a company that owns the same assets and has the same outlook. It’s an inverse relationship similar to bond yields and bond values.
You can use TradingView to look at a chart of SPX/DXY to see a chart of SPX adjusted with respect to DXY, IIRC you just enter ‘SPY/DXY’ into the ticker symbol field and you get a dollar-adjusted SPX chart.
The leading indicator to me was when I started spending more time trying to recover from identity thefts every year than not. The frauds became novel, no longer just maxing out retail credit lines to baby goods and lingerie shops, but exploiting internal corporate processes that were tedious to discover, explain, and clear. I'm not really served by credit, so it felt like I was going through a lot of effort talking with companies, writing affidavits, and getting police reports for nothing.
So I stopped fixing it.
And guess what? Not having perfect credit made me such an unattractive target that it hasn't happened since. I write letters of dispute to the bureaus, but if they choose not to remove anything (the debt collectors are much easier to convince, by comparison), I suppose that's as far as I'll go until I need it.
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[ 1065 ms ] story [ 1527 ms ] threadYou can use TradingView to look at a chart of SPX/DXY to see a chart of SPX adjusted with respect to DXY, IIRC you just enter ‘SPY/DXY’ into the ticker symbol field and you get a dollar-adjusted SPX chart.
So I stopped fixing it.
And guess what? Not having perfect credit made me such an unattractive target that it hasn't happened since. I write letters of dispute to the bureaus, but if they choose not to remove anything (the debt collectors are much easier to convince, by comparison), I suppose that's as far as I'll go until I need it.