AI is a bubble, just admit it

19 points by zerosizedweasle ↗ HN
If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.

14 comments

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Good luck timing the burst, everything is a bubble
A bubble much like the dotcom bubble. but the internet didn't go away...it was flourishing 3 years later.
Forecasting the global AI market revenue in 2030 when we're only about 1,000 days since ChatGPT launched seems unlikely to be accurate
Chips are unlike cars and there is very little wear and tear. If depreciation of Chips and subsequent losses is your criteria of how this bubble will burst, you may be in for a rude awakening. With Moor's law already finished, the Chips can be used for at least a decade or more even with lower efficiency and more power usage.
Sure, some companies and products might be overvalued - so what?

Why do some people insist on screaming about this from the rooftops?

What if we admit it and also approve it?

Stock pumping is this generation s real estate

Yes it is. Everyone knows it. We're just waiting for it to pop, that's all. Wait for China to refactor their DeepSeek v3 to run on Huawei chips. Then you'll see the US stock marker crash.
lotta tech bros have a lot of money in it -- and those bros own online marketing

they're never going to stop until it's dead and dusted.

The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. In the past, investors were way more tuned to value investing. Now days, investors dgaf about value as much as hype. As long as they can generate hype, the money will flow. And everyone is bought into the hype.

And really, overall its not really a bad thing, because money flowing = economic activity. The only downside is the focus of technological progress gets lost in the sauce, with a lot of companies thinking short term rather than actual persistent value.

People said we have outsmarted downturns just before every major downturn in the past century and a half.

Boom and bust is how complex systems develop. The biosphere down to that slime mold mapping out food sources. It's always a pulse.

Oh it makes for a bumpy ride for the monkeys? Yeah. It does. Will the monkey outsmart the physics of complexity? Unlikely.

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Every new technology creating opportunities and a overload of attention creates a bubble- however AI or Gen Intelligence through Language Models is giving us a tremendous amount of opportinities - A bubble so huge that it also contains many bubbles as well such as vibe coding and agents -
It's not a bubble at technical level, although it is at financial level.
Aren't bigger GPUs increasingly being seen on phones? So I'd expect more local AI. And is this true?

"Privacy is the real bottleneck for autonomous AI agents. Sapphire + ROFL looks like a solid answer: on-chain confidentiality for state and logic, off-chain trusted execution for computation."

https://old.reddit.com/r/oasisnetwork/comments/1nqhi4p/is_th...

What does crypto/blockchain have to do with AI?