This is large but not a black swan by any means. If you trade NQ for several years or more these movements should not be surprising. Even at after the drop, it is (in my opinion) absurdly overvalued, and has been for 5+years. That said… the advice about the market remaining irrational longer than you can remain solvent applies.
This was a reaction to the China rare earth news. If and when that resolves it will simply revert back. It may very well be true we are due for a major correction or bubble pop but this wasn’t it.
It might be weird thing to say, but I eventually ended up finding tariffs and everything related to it "boring". It is getting into "yet again" category. It is announced, re-announced, changed, removed, added again and I dont care about the process of it. It will eventually settle somewhere.
Stock market either react or dont based on how they feel. It has little to do with actual economical impact on companies, it does not seem to care about fundamentals either. It was fine for years with overpriced companies and itches to create yet another bubble.
I get that everybody is hurt in the long term. But until actual investor billionaires class is actually really hurt financially, the rollecoaster will go round and round.
Like battles on the Western Front, the amount of interestingness from the daily headlines does not translate to there being no impact for people on the ground or for yourself over time. The headlines matter not as "was this an interesting story, taken on its own" but more as "in this process that takes years to play out, are we on the path toward a noticeably better or worse state of the world".
Google market cap has grown over 50% in the past six months. Nvidia was up nearly 70%. Tesla was in the same ballpark, I can't imagine why. Heck, Meta was up 35%, for no conceivable reason.
So the headline here should be probably less about a small 5% hiccup in that Bitcoin-like trajectory, and more about why the heck is so much money pouring into the sector - including Tesla and Facebook, which aren't on the forefront of anything right now.
NVIDIA and Tesla are massively over valued right now. Both of them have valuations based on their potential for the future but the very real competition to both now makes their inevitable dominance a very far from sure thing bet. Tesla's brand is tarnished and their tech is lagging far behind global competitors and NVIDIA is seeing real competition from AMD, finally. Compute is too fundamental for a single company to hold all the cards. I can agree with the 'don't take every little blip seriously' mindset but there are real fundamental problems in the big players in the market right now that should cause concerns.
> Five years before Enron Corp. collapsed in a big accounting scandal, an executive joked at a party about making “a kazillion dollars” through something he humorously dubbed “hypothetical future value accounting”
A lot of people in tech are cheering for tech crash without knowing the consequences. Next crash will bring recession which lasts until the end of Trump administration given that he will never listen to experts. Most engineers will loose jobs and will replaced by new grads when the economy recovers.
Tech industry keeps this economy going. Everyone should thank all those AI investments
There seems to be a lot of context missing from mainstream discussions of this. The broader context (afaict) is that after the trade war kicked off in April, the US and China agreed in Madrid in June to hold negotiations and otherwise not take new punitive measures.
Last week, Department of Commerce BIS rolled out a new rule significantly expanding how and to whom export controls against China are applied, especially around semiconductors and other "dual-use" goods. China viewed this as a violation of the Madrid "trade ceasefire" and so this Thursday they turned around and unloaded the cannons of rare earth and other export controls, which if enacted would plausibly hobble the global economy and its AI capex sugar high.
For whatever reason no one took this all too seriously until Friday when Trump flipped out on his truth social post, but the broader context is if anything more concerning because these escalations having been going on under the surface and now both sides are conveying they believe they have escalation dominance.
19 comments
[ 4.9 ms ] story [ 46.5 ms ] threadOften you notice that what seems like a big drop is either pretty common or pretty small.
For instance, looking at the Nasdaq Composite over a few time horizons:
- 6mo: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?...
- 5yr: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?...
- Max: https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ?...
$0.77 trillion here, $0.77 trillion there, and pretty soon we'll be talking about real money.
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[a] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Everett_Dirksen#Misattributed
What sort of software would be impacted by this? Almost anything could be critical depending on the context.
Stock market either react or dont based on how they feel. It has little to do with actual economical impact on companies, it does not seem to care about fundamentals either. It was fine for years with overpriced companies and itches to create yet another bubble.
I get that everybody is hurt in the long term. But until actual investor billionaires class is actually really hurt financially, the rollecoaster will go round and round.
So the headline here should be probably less about a small 5% hiccup in that Bitcoin-like trajectory, and more about why the heck is so much money pouring into the sector - including Tesla and Facebook, which aren't on the forefront of anything right now.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-dec-17-fi-enron...
Tech industry keeps this economy going. Everyone should thank all those AI investments
Raking in hundreds of millions in profit. Clearly done by someone with insider knowledge and the intent to cover their tracks.
Last week, Department of Commerce BIS rolled out a new rule significantly expanding how and to whom export controls against China are applied, especially around semiconductors and other "dual-use" goods. China viewed this as a violation of the Madrid "trade ceasefire" and so this Thursday they turned around and unloaded the cannons of rare earth and other export controls, which if enacted would plausibly hobble the global economy and its AI capex sugar high.
For whatever reason no one took this all too seriously until Friday when Trump flipped out on his truth social post, but the broader context is if anything more concerning because these escalations having been going on under the surface and now both sides are conveying they believe they have escalation dominance.
https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-r...
https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bi...
https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148
https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586
M2 money supply going up. Dollar going down.
My prediction is we'll be at all time highs again a month from now.