We all were screaming that Trump was going to start a trade war and how that was going to be bad for everyone. Even the most cynical of us didn't think he'd lose.
I believe the tariff fiasco has crossed a line that marks the beginning of the end of American Empire and there's really no going back.
America is a one-party state. That party is neoliberalism. On economics and foreign policy there's almost no daylight between the major parties in the US and really foreign policy is economics. Imperialism is the highest form of capitalism.
Political discourse is dominated by culture war issues not economics. Race, gender, sexual oreintation, immigration status, etc are intentional distractions designed to divide the working class while the government steals from you to give it to the wealthy. As LBJ put it:
> “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”
Southern states were so deeply concerned that poor white people would unit with freed slaves they went out of their way to sow these kinds of racial divisions.
Why tariffs have crossed a line is because the Republicans seem to have forgotten that protecting the economic order is the point of culture war issues. You're not meant to actually start messing twith the economic order. Trade is so intertwined on the global stage that no country stands self-sufficient. China can wield an extremely large stick here. Rare earths are just the tip of the iceberg.
The US produces very little now and that's mostly weapons (and some commercial airplanes). You might say tech products but they're almost all produced in China. We have a dysfunctional economy that teeters on the brink of collapse where basics like food, water and shelter are getting out of reach for many people. Take out data centers being built and our economy is in decline and that's another theft from the public too as we're all paying for the electricity. Now that might be fine if those AI data centers actually produced something but... they don't.
The capitalist dream here seems to be to produce AI to displace workers but where does it end? Who buys your stuff if nobody has a job and those who do have no disposable income?
AI data centers, weapons and private equity firms. That's the modern US economy.
Compare that to China where the government is building infrastructure at an incredible rate and is investing in public services.
I feel like the epitaph for the United States of America will be something like "For a brief time we created a lot of shareholder value."
"Rare earths are crucial for various defense technologies, including F-35 fighter jets, Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. The United States is already struggling to keep pace in the production of these systems."
This feels like it can't be true. What % of "rare earths" are going into those military products? I mean those are super low volume manufacturing compared to EVs or anything consumer oriented. I'm sure there are strong magnets somewhere in a submarine but how many?
I thought "rare earths" were not rare at all. A lot of stuff is made in China because it's economical but can be made somewhere else for a bit more money. Do billion dollar fighter jets care if the magnet used in some electric motor costs $0.35 or $0.43 ?
Isn't the manufacturing issue in the US unrelated to any of this? Not enough factories, not enough skilled people, not having ramped up because munitions weren't needed?
Just to ask the obvious question - if China has the ability to threaten the US War [0] supply chain, would it make sense for the US to adopt a more peaceful strategy? The Chinese seem to be slowly building up a dominant position without their army really leaving the Chinese borders. And their trade policy seems to mostly leverage producing high quality goods cheaply. Maybe the US could emulate that.
[0] That rename was the best gift Trump has given the international community so far.
Isn't it widely accepted that every country is playing the art of the deal with America after having been bullied by this administration so much? I wouldn't be surprised if China ekes out a better negotiation than EU or other countries because of this play - because this is the only language this administration understands.
Hopefully this motivates alternatives to rare earths, China dominates because they can get away with polluting huge areas. For 1 kg of rare earth, you get roughly 200–300 kg of rock tailings, 2–3 kg of chemical/toxic waste.
Wondering if anyone with knowledge can explain a little more.
We know Rare Earth are not rare. But do high concentration of Rare Earth exist? i.e larger total number of Kg per tonne extracted. Or is the number so small it is negligible? How big of a site would be needed if US were to be self sufficient? What is the highest cost of extraction? Electricity? Are extraction automated? Could it be automated? They say environmental issues, what exactly are those issues? Metallic or chemical contamination? How much more expensive would it be in the US if the initial Capex were not needed for ROI?
I mean I could ask those questions for every other industry that has China as supply Chain chock point but most post or articles seems to ignore it.
China has also suspended purchasing of BHP iron ore as a negotiating tactic to lower prices. They banned Australian barley, wine and coal when the previous government upset them.
Honestly, everyone should put tarrifs on china. Bringing them into the WTO was the biggest mistake made. People thought it would drive them to democracy. Instead the opposite has happened. The sooner, Chinese companies are forced to compete fairly the better. When western countries can sell cars in China as easy as BYD can ship shit boxes to the west, the better. Until then, fuck them.
Raise tariffs, restrict trade, disincentivise investment in China. Build out manufacturing capabilities in western countries
This is bad. This whole debacle has only proven two things: you can't trust China. And you can't trust the USA. Globalisation is slowly going to reverse :(
maybe we just need a big rock half the size of Earth made entirely of rare earths from the cosmos to strike the planet. this would solve all of our rare earths problems. we would never need rare earths again.
The vague, general and ill specified argument of "national security" can mean anything, from "we are totally screwed" up to "our fighter's LCD screen has 10% less contrast than it should". Only an insider can provide some context in what RE means currently.
I remember talking with someone well over a decade ago who predicted this over Thanksgiving Dinner. The politicians decided to let Magnequench, an Indiana company that made the small, very high torque rare-earth magnet servomotors you need if you want to steer missile fins, etc. get sold to China.
He used to work incorporating those motors into other gear, and predicted this would come back to bite us.
My understanding is the main thing keeping us from ramping up the US domestic rare earth supply chain is the cost of environmental compliance. A long term thinking DOD would have kept this in mind for National Security reasons, and funded things just to keep our supplies viable. As it is, we have vast national security stockpiles of various raw materials, but you know how well central planning worked out for the Soviets.
Our government really fought a trade war with China (the last mini trade war were Trump got concessions) and then started another trade war expecting to fight the exact same war again and not evolving/preparing knowing you can never fight the same war twice? We have the worst political class ever.
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[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 52.0 ms ] threadThis behavior to ban sales of materials needed for every advanced engine, actuator, sensor, etc. is why the Taiwan situation is fraught.
America is a one-party state. That party is neoliberalism. On economics and foreign policy there's almost no daylight between the major parties in the US and really foreign policy is economics. Imperialism is the highest form of capitalism.
Political discourse is dominated by culture war issues not economics. Race, gender, sexual oreintation, immigration status, etc are intentional distractions designed to divide the working class while the government steals from you to give it to the wealthy. As LBJ put it:
> “If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.”
Southern states were so deeply concerned that poor white people would unit with freed slaves they went out of their way to sow these kinds of racial divisions.
Why tariffs have crossed a line is because the Republicans seem to have forgotten that protecting the economic order is the point of culture war issues. You're not meant to actually start messing twith the economic order. Trade is so intertwined on the global stage that no country stands self-sufficient. China can wield an extremely large stick here. Rare earths are just the tip of the iceberg.
The US produces very little now and that's mostly weapons (and some commercial airplanes). You might say tech products but they're almost all produced in China. We have a dysfunctional economy that teeters on the brink of collapse where basics like food, water and shelter are getting out of reach for many people. Take out data centers being built and our economy is in decline and that's another theft from the public too as we're all paying for the electricity. Now that might be fine if those AI data centers actually produced something but... they don't.
The capitalist dream here seems to be to produce AI to displace workers but where does it end? Who buys your stuff if nobody has a job and those who do have no disposable income?
AI data centers, weapons and private equity firms. That's the modern US economy.
Compare that to China where the government is building infrastructure at an incredible rate and is investing in public services.
I feel like the epitaph for the United States of America will be something like "For a brief time we created a lot of shareholder value."
This feels like it can't be true. What % of "rare earths" are going into those military products? I mean those are super low volume manufacturing compared to EVs or anything consumer oriented. I'm sure there are strong magnets somewhere in a submarine but how many?
I thought "rare earths" were not rare at all. A lot of stuff is made in China because it's economical but can be made somewhere else for a bit more money. Do billion dollar fighter jets care if the magnet used in some electric motor costs $0.35 or $0.43 ?
Isn't the manufacturing issue in the US unrelated to any of this? Not enough factories, not enough skilled people, not having ramped up because munitions weren't needed?
This is somewhat dated (2012), but I suspect that it hasn't changed much: <5%[1].
1. Rare Earths Shortage Would Spur Pentagon to Action, Gopal Ratnam, Bloomberg April 9, 2012 https://archive.ph/1aEF8
[0] That rename was the best gift Trump has given the international community so far.
We know Rare Earth are not rare. But do high concentration of Rare Earth exist? i.e larger total number of Kg per tonne extracted. Or is the number so small it is negligible? How big of a site would be needed if US were to be self sufficient? What is the highest cost of extraction? Electricity? Are extraction automated? Could it be automated? They say environmental issues, what exactly are those issues? Metallic or chemical contamination? How much more expensive would it be in the US if the initial Capex were not needed for ROI?
I mean I could ask those questions for every other industry that has China as supply Chain chock point but most post or articles seems to ignore it.
My pet theory is that this is intended as an attack to the concept of long-arm jurisdiction itself, due to
1. This is the first ever long-arm jurisdiction policy from China.
2. Diplomatically, China usually advocates for the total sovereignty of each country within its border.
3. The recent chip entity list has been a huge headache.
4. Notice how the language mirrors the US justification for the chip restriction: dual use, national security.
Honestly, everyone should put tarrifs on china. Bringing them into the WTO was the biggest mistake made. People thought it would drive them to democracy. Instead the opposite has happened. The sooner, Chinese companies are forced to compete fairly the better. When western countries can sell cars in China as easy as BYD can ship shit boxes to the west, the better. Until then, fuck them.
Raise tariffs, restrict trade, disincentivise investment in China. Build out manufacturing capabilities in western countries
He used to work incorporating those motors into other gear, and predicted this would come back to bite us.
My understanding is the main thing keeping us from ramping up the US domestic rare earth supply chain is the cost of environmental compliance. A long term thinking DOD would have kept this in mind for National Security reasons, and funded things just to keep our supplies viable. As it is, we have vast national security stockpiles of various raw materials, but you know how well central planning worked out for the Soviets.