I’m pretty sure the banks view the intellectual property value as the security for their loan not the potential profits of the company.
I’ve worked for enough startups that even if your company folds and goes bankrupt with no business plan the ip generally can easily cover the outstanding loans.
> This Reuters article claims OpenAI is going to generate $3.6 billion in revenue this year, but the costs will lead to a loss of more than $5 billion. It expects a major revenue jump next year to $11.6 billion
The article linked[0] is from last year.
A recent article[1] from this year says "OpenAI looks to meet its full-year revenue target of $13 billion and a cash-burn target of $8.5 billion, the report added."
I'm no expert in corporate finance, but whether or not OpenAI goes bankrupt feels like the wrong question to me (in thinking about this loan). Wouldn't a bank be more concerned with (1) the likelihood that OpenAI can raise another round of financing from which to repay the bank, and (2) the likelihood that OpenAI will have assets worth >10B when/if they do eventually declare bankruptcy?
The bank's risk seems quite a bit lower than the VC's risk.
All that text to somehow not realize that large companies routinely take on banking relationships, including debt, specifically to start cultivating the various relationships/trust they'll want access to in the future. Apple and Microsoft both did this at massive scale even though they didn't have to, in order to prime the debt markets in regards to relationships/trust.
At this point I would rather consider this kind of large loans to be "political" than "technical", that is say, they may or may not make sense in terms of $$$, but may make a lot of sense in other areas.
A company that has revenues and is extremely well-capitalized gets debt finance. That is not news. That is totally commonplace. "Shouldn't all their capital come from investors?" No. Companies at all stages typically use a mixture of debt and equity finance.
His EV calculation is completely flawed also. Debt finance is typically senior to equity in recovery at bankruptcy, so when JPMC do this analysis (and believe me they did this analysis) they are not assuming 0% recovery. They are thinking it is most likely in a bankruptcy that they get some x>0% recovery.
Finally, banks don't think about their relationship with a multi-billion-dollar company in terms of the ROI on a single revolving credit. (even though this will in all likelihood be very profitable for JPMC). They think about how giving this revolving credit makes it more likely they get advisory on any future bond issuance and I-banking work when OpenAI want to do takeovers, and a foot in the door at IPO time etc.
> Cost: $1,000
Case 1 (90%): OpenAI goes bankrupt. Return: $0
Case 2 (9%): OpenAI becomes a big successful company and goes 10x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050
Case 3 (1%): OpenAI becomes the big new thing and goes 100x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050
The actual math is that if OpenAI succeeds, then there's a nod and a wink that JPM will land the lead role in the IPO or any mergers/acquisitions, which translates into huge fees.
> However, there's no speculation about what their earnings will be because they're currently selling their services below cost and there isn't really any story as to how they'll turn this profitable.
Do we know they're selling their services below cost? I'm pretty confident they're making money on inference and burning through large piles of cash on capex and research.
I've determined that it's a bad idea for me to write an article like this because every time I've seen one of these they're absolutely riddled with errors and incomplete information. I have no doubt I'd do worse!
People have to stop saying this with NO evidence to back it up. And by evidence I do not mean random investors opinions, anonymous "insider" infomation, etc. Give numbers. Saying the same thing 1000x doesn't make it true.
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[ 4.5 ms ] story [ 72.6 ms ] threadI’ve worked for enough startups that even if your company folds and goes bankrupt with no business plan the ip generally can easily cover the outstanding loans.
Anyway, J.P. Morgan's OpenAI loan isn't strange, it's calculated exposure to Microsoft.
The article linked[0] is from last year.
A recent article[1] from this year says "OpenAI looks to meet its full-year revenue target of $13 billion and a cash-burn target of $8.5 billion, the report added."
[0]https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/o...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenu...
The bank's risk seems quite a bit lower than the VC's risk.
(Also, a revolving credit facility is not a loan, which this discussion misses)
A company that has revenues and is extremely well-capitalized gets debt finance. That is not news. That is totally commonplace. "Shouldn't all their capital come from investors?" No. Companies at all stages typically use a mixture of debt and equity finance.
His EV calculation is completely flawed also. Debt finance is typically senior to equity in recovery at bankruptcy, so when JPMC do this analysis (and believe me they did this analysis) they are not assuming 0% recovery. They are thinking it is most likely in a bankruptcy that they get some x>0% recovery.
Finally, banks don't think about their relationship with a multi-billion-dollar company in terms of the ROI on a single revolving credit. (even though this will in all likelihood be very profitable for JPMC). They think about how giving this revolving credit makes it more likely they get advisory on any future bond issuance and I-banking work when OpenAI want to do takeovers, and a foot in the door at IPO time etc.
> OpenAI is going to generate $3.6 billion in revenue this year, but the costs will lead to a loss of more than $5 billion.
We know that actually:
> OpenAI generated around $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025... OpenAI said it burned $2.5 billion
> OpenAI looks to meet its full-year revenue target of $13 billion and a cash-burn target of $8.5 billion, the report added.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenu...
> Cost: $1,000 Case 1 (90%): OpenAI goes bankrupt. Return: $0 Case 2 (9%): OpenAI becomes a big successful company and goes 10x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050 Case 3 (1%): OpenAI becomes the big new thing and goes 100x. Return: $1,000 + 5% interest = $1,050
The actual math is that if OpenAI succeeds, then there's a nod and a wink that JPM will land the lead role in the IPO or any mergers/acquisitions, which translates into huge fees.
In the 1% scenario, JPM could be looking at tens of billions on the upside, if this loan secures them the lead.
The loan value in case OpenAI goes bankrupt depends on the details of the deal.
> 0 of 0 matches
Some analysis.
Do we know they're selling their services below cost? I'm pretty confident they're making money on inference and burning through large piles of cash on capex and research.
People have to stop saying this with NO evidence to back it up. And by evidence I do not mean random investors opinions, anonymous "insider" infomation, etc. Give numbers. Saying the same thing 1000x doesn't make it true.