The smugglers must have a high tolerance for loss acceptance if this is their delivery route. I'd love to know more about the logistics on this. Searching for this topic just returns various sites with the same report. A headline from Fortune suggests these are hot air balloons, but the image in TFA does not indicate that at all. They mentioned 25 balloons at one time, so this is not a small operation. Do they have 25 separate teams waiting for the balloons, or is one or two receiving groups expected to locate them all? Inquiring minds want to know
I recall a friend of mine smoking cigarettes smuggled from Belarus back in 2006 costing 2,30PLN a pack, so less than €0,60 at the time.
Considering how light the product was, that translated to ~€20 per kilogram, with about 20% of this figure being the cost of third rate tobacco stuffed into those cigarettes.
The smell was distinctly foul, but he was happy with the bargain he got on them.
Depending on the terrain the loss rate might not be high. Put a cell phone in the package. Location tracking, find the phone. If they're dropping into ares with cell coverage and flat enough that they're likely reachable then you won't lose a lot.
And if you're dropping into areas without coverage you put something like an inReach on the balloon, set to send out pings. And put an AirTag or the like in it because the balloon might land on the transmitter and block it. (I own an inReach, know it can send pings at 2 minute or 10 minute intervals, I've only used them to look up where I was once (the real reason I have it is the SOS button works pretty much anywhere and even if I couldn't push it S&R would look up the last ping) but the website was spot on to normal GPS accuracy. There are competitors but I do not know their capability.)
>They mentioned 25 balloons at one time, so this is not a small operation. Do they have 25 separate teams waiting for the balloons, or is one or two receiving groups expected to locate them all?
Maybe the guy in the lawn chair with a BB gun got away.
ciagrettes are tobacco and paper. consider how dirt cheap those things are as raw materials when the price doesn't include sales tax or excise tax and doesn't account for the demand generated by addicts. In terms of just the cost of sourcing the materials and processing them into cigarettes you could probably afford to lose 90% of your product and still make money.
As far as 25 balloons 25 teams, I think this is another r breeding strategy type of thing: inputs are dirt cheap so massive losses can be tolerated, and 25 balloons being tracked means there have to be at least 25 officers chasing each balloon in order to arrest the smuggler picking them up, but one smuggler successfully retrieving one balloon ends the day with more money than he started. I think it's designed to exploit the extremely asymmetric costs associated with tying some cigarettes to a balloon when compared to the cost of tracking a balloon across europe and arresting whoever receives it.
tldr - you're absolutely right, the difference between the price of the raw materials in a cigarette and the price of the actual cigarette means they can tolerate extreme losses and still make money.
Strange. Presumably there are many different methods which would be much more efficient and reliable. And I don't see any mention on how they would track and recover the cargo.
Tracking and recovery is as simple as placing a GPS locator on the payload, and then driving+hiking out to where the payload lands. hopefully on dry land. If these are simple balloons using hydrogen or helium, they will continue to rise in altitude until the gasses expand to the point the balloon bursts. This could take around 2-3 hours depending on size of balloon and weight of payload. Once the balloon bursts, it's just free falling with I'd assume a parachute of some sort. From burst altitude to on the ground would be about an hour again depending on weight and parachute. From there, you just go to the dot on the map. This is all based on my personal experience with helium balloon "experiments". Balloon reached close to 90000', and went 100+ miles down range in about 3 hours from launch to landing.
Depending on how sophisticated the efforts are, there are websites you can go to that will give you a flight path prediction based on current+previous day(s) wind. So you could stage recovery teams in the general area to get much closer. There could also be some sort of timer that some how deflates the balloon instead of waiting for simple physics to have a little more control. At the end of the day you are subject to whatever the wind currents are.
The article doesn't describe how the balloons are controlled or tracked, but it seems inevitable that the combination of advances in electronics, cryptocurrences, and new tariffs will make smuggling of all kinds explode over the next few years, by air, by water, and even by land. You could see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb as a kind of smuggling, the kind where the recipient of the shipment doesn't want it.
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[ 3.9 ms ] story [ 69.0 ms ] threadConsidering how light the product was, that translated to ~€20 per kilogram, with about 20% of this figure being the cost of third rate tobacco stuffed into those cigarettes.
The smell was distinctly foul, but he was happy with the bargain he got on them.
And if you're dropping into areas without coverage you put something like an inReach on the balloon, set to send out pings. And put an AirTag or the like in it because the balloon might land on the transmitter and block it. (I own an inReach, know it can send pings at 2 minute or 10 minute intervals, I've only used them to look up where I was once (the real reason I have it is the SOS button works pretty much anywhere and even if I couldn't push it S&R would look up the last ping) but the website was spot on to normal GPS accuracy. There are competitors but I do not know their capability.)
Maybe the guy in the lawn chair with a BB gun got away.
As far as 25 balloons 25 teams, I think this is another r breeding strategy type of thing: inputs are dirt cheap so massive losses can be tolerated, and 25 balloons being tracked means there have to be at least 25 officers chasing each balloon in order to arrest the smuggler picking them up, but one smuggler successfully retrieving one balloon ends the day with more money than he started. I think it's designed to exploit the extremely asymmetric costs associated with tying some cigarettes to a balloon when compared to the cost of tracking a balloon across europe and arresting whoever receives it.
tldr - you're absolutely right, the difference between the price of the raw materials in a cigarette and the price of the actual cigarette means they can tolerate extreme losses and still make money.
Depending on how sophisticated the efforts are, there are websites you can go to that will give you a flight path prediction based on current+previous day(s) wind. So you could stage recovery teams in the general area to get much closer. There could also be some sort of timer that some how deflates the balloon instead of waiting for simple physics to have a little more control. At the end of the day you are subject to whatever the wind currents are.
I can see a lot of reasons for Belarus and Russia to create lots of contacts in EU airspace. The strategy is called "salami slicing" [0]
Especially in light of the point the others are making-- this is a really unreliable form of smuggling.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing_tactics