Oracle is the one to look out for if/when the bubble bursts. Most of the big tech will be fine, albeit hurting for a while. For Oracle, this might be existential.
One must love the projections of >50% YOY growth for 5 straight years.
Why not continue for the next 5 ? Maybe they will find customers on Mars.
This while situation is very strange - there are some big companies pouring tens of billions into it (Alphabet, Meta) - since they don't have anything better to do with the money printers they have, but there are several others whose valuations are based on completely unrealistic projections where their expected revenues in 5-10 years represent 99% of their current 'value'.
FT uses "underwater" because the deal was $300 Billion and the stock has lost $315 Billion in market cap since the deal. That's a bit of a stretch, but the rest of the article is very good.
The market (over)reacted to the OpenAi announcement sending Oracle’s share price up and now may be overreacting to Altman’s interview with an investor pushing their stock price down. And we are measuring (what seems like) a non-binding investment against market cap which swings everyday.
I see that the stock price jumped high on Sept 10 and is now back to where it was the day before.
So what is Oracle spending the $300B on? Did they get any percentage ownership of OpenAI? Is it building out the cloud hardware data center? Can anyone other than OpenAI use it?
So this economist is saying that a deal is only good if it raises the subjective share price? That is some distorted world view of finance that aims to just repeat the ai bubble narrative that is popular these days
I seem to recall Musk saying something about OpenAI being over-valued/under-funded earlier this year. Of course he was summarily booed off the stage by the startup crowd.
This slide from their investor preso is bonkers. $10B revenue today, but we promise we'll get to $166B in revenue in 5 years, by the simple expedient of growing 75% every year for five years!
There has never been a moment that I've truly understood how Oracle stays in business.
I snuck into "Oracle Openworld" in 2011, and it was just the most drunken, debaucherous event. I had just come from Djangocon in Portland, and the contrast was incredible - Djangocon which was _much_ more chill, focused on collaboration - more full of weed, whereas the Oracle thing was liquor and cocaine, and I had the distinct feeling that few people there were mulling over any product notions whatsoever.
Is it just legacy db support? Can that really explain this? They have window shopped acquisitions for a decade now - do they have a stack which new customers are approaching with serious esteem, and I just haven't heard about it?
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[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 46.5 ms ] threadChatGPT has brand recognition and adoption, but not the best product anymore.
Why not continue for the next 5 ? Maybe they will find customers on Mars.
This while situation is very strange - there are some big companies pouring tens of billions into it (Alphabet, Meta) - since they don't have anything better to do with the money printers they have, but there are several others whose valuations are based on completely unrealistic projections where their expected revenues in 5-10 years represent 99% of their current 'value'.
News of a deal and hype was largely responsible for the rise. Now that the sentiment is cooling off, it’s dropping back to a more reasonable level.
So what is Oracle spending the $300B on? Did they get any percentage ownership of OpenAI? Is it building out the cloud hardware data center? Can anyone other than OpenAI use it?
https://d9j0pm70mrv84f.archive.is/Qdf2n/baa236e2a4d94d45fe93...
I snuck into "Oracle Openworld" in 2011, and it was just the most drunken, debaucherous event. I had just come from Djangocon in Portland, and the contrast was incredible - Djangocon which was _much_ more chill, focused on collaboration - more full of weed, whereas the Oracle thing was liquor and cocaine, and I had the distinct feeling that few people there were mulling over any product notions whatsoever.
Is it just legacy db support? Can that really explain this? They have window shopped acquisitions for a decade now - do they have a stack which new customers are approaching with serious esteem, and I just haven't heard about it?