Has the AI Bubble Popped Yet? (hastheaibubblepoppedyet.com)

Pretty sure you can actually put money on this. I'm sure there's an option trader who reads HN who can tell us best approach...

My very firm timeframe is an economic crash before 2030 and a 10% increase in global unemployment before 2035.

Point of curiosity: the community prediction is, presumably, an arithmetic mean, but I argue that is not a good model for a dataset that almost certainly gets more dense closer to the present, creating a gradient out into the future. It would be great to see the geometric mean as well.

When it pops, you won't need to ask. The answer will be obvious to everyone.

The current AI bubble is a case study in how capitalist markets can be rigged by large companies.

And any day now people will wise up and the industrial revolution bubble will burst and we'll all go back to pastoralism. Unfortunately I'm not finding an ETF for pastoralism.

Is Polymarket taking bets on this yet?