I'll throw the British South Sea Trading Company into the ring for that title of most overvalued company ever.
It had the king himself on the board. The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time. All without actually never producing anything of actual value. It was just bribes and speculation all the way through. It's wild.
To me it would depend a lot on how US/EU relations continue to grow/break. If digital sovereignty ends up putting Palantir in a position where they won't be able to seel their intelligence tools to European secret police organisations, then it's probably overvalued. If relationships work out fine, then they'll basically be the Microsoft of mass survailance, which may make them overvalued but surely not the most overvalued company that ever existed?
I do not think the EU is critical. Palantir's potential market is global, so one region is not that important to them. They also sell to the private sector and this will increase, and EU countries will have different policies so losing a few EU governments business would not be that big a deal.
Right now 73% or their sales are to the US, and the next biggest source of revenue is the UK, far behind at 10%. The whole of the rest of the world, including the EU, adds up to 17%.
Is their market really global though? If it wasn't for political reasons I suspect everyone would be buying Chinese mass surveilance tools. Traditional US allies won't do that, at least not yet, but why would South America trust US over China?
For the sake of democracy and freedom of human expression, I hope that their software is a bloated, bureaucratic mess and can’t power the efficient dystopia which Alex Karp wants.
it may well be terrible software, but Palantir are effectively an arm of the new Trumpian state, so guaranteed access (and ownership?) to the largest public sector projects of the largest economy in the world. It's got a good chance of becoming the Samsung of the US, so any value is not an overvalue
>Palantir would need to grow its revenues roughly 15-fold (yes, 1,500%) over the next quarter century, implying sustained annual revenue growth in the 35% range over this time frame.
That's actually a pretty reasonnable ask for a tech company, if you believe Palantir can grow to the level of FAANG.
Like Tesla, Palantir is an ideological investment for many, and likely why it's so over valued. Retail investors buy these stocks because they're buying into a world view. Tesla's is obvious (and it's not about green investments). Palantir's is a little less so, but they have built up an image that's right wing (but mostly not culture war), military-coded, and layered on American exceptionalism. They sell to the CIA, they sell to ICE, they help private healthcare companies milk their customers. This is all part of a world view that many people are in favour of, and Palantir represents it well. Andruil will likely do well for similar reasons once they go public.
This is not really to fault them. I see the company as far more mature than Tesla. They've cultivated a brand that works well for them. This is also not intended to be a criticism of Palantir investors, there are many reasons to invest, and even if you subscribe to the above that is of course your right! Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.
> Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.
Sure, but I'm under the assumption that many people, yourself included, are conflating "buying some company stocks" with "investing".
To first order approximation, it does not benefit a company that you trade stocks on the market once they have been emitted, any more than it benefits GM if you opt to buy a second hand chevrolet.
If they keep their shit together and ride the surveillance wave then I don't see what should keep them from increasing 15fold by 2050. Their technology is not at all dependent on AGI, which is why I don't understand why they are always thrown in together with OpenAI et al.
The reason Palantir is valued as highly is because it is a Peter Thiel company, and he also owns the Vice President of the United States.
The thesis is "The current US administration is making enormous profits from their powerful positions. Whether of not I agree with this, I want some of that money too".
I'm not sure why this isn't mentioned because it's the number one factor driving the price.
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[ 3.7 ms ] story [ 62.5 ms ] threadIt had the king himself on the board. The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time. All without actually never producing anything of actual value. It was just bribes and speculation all the way through. It's wild.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company
Extra History did a more easily digestible series, which was how I learned about it in the first place. https://youtu.be/k1kndKWJKB8
And to be honest car manufacturers have always had very deep links with politics.
Right now 73% or their sales are to the US, and the next biggest source of revenue is the UK, far behind at 10%. The whole of the rest of the world, including the EU, adds up to 17%.
https://pca.st/episode/17966c7b-a56e-46f7-ab2d-03d86dbad650
That's actually a pretty reasonnable ask for a tech company, if you believe Palantir can grow to the level of FAANG.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener
This is not really to fault them. I see the company as far more mature than Tesla. They've cultivated a brand that works well for them. This is also not intended to be a criticism of Palantir investors, there are many reasons to invest, and even if you subscribe to the above that is of course your right! Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.
Sure, but I'm under the assumption that many people, yourself included, are conflating "buying some company stocks" with "investing".
To first order approximation, it does not benefit a company that you trade stocks on the market once they have been emitted, any more than it benefits GM if you opt to buy a second hand chevrolet.
So the support is symbolic only.
https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3m7...
The thesis is "The current US administration is making enormous profits from their powerful positions. Whether of not I agree with this, I want some of that money too".
I'm not sure why this isn't mentioned because it's the number one factor driving the price.