This is a personal project that tries to translate AI capability growth into job-level timelines using task horizons, friction, and hazard modeling. It’s not meant to predict the economy, but to give individuals a way to reason about their own role.
Happy to answer questions or explain assumptions. Please see the Methodology page for a technical breakdown or the Guide for a more accessible essay.
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[ 2.5 ms ] story [ 13.8 ms ] threadThis is a personal project that tries to translate AI capability growth into job-level timelines using task horizons, friction, and hazard modeling. It’s not meant to predict the economy, but to give individuals a way to reason about their own role.
Happy to answer questions or explain assumptions. Please see the Methodology page for a technical breakdown or the Guide for a more accessible essay.