accelerate - "To cause to move faster; to quicken the motion of; to add to the speed of." I.e. The airplane will accelerate as it plunges toward the ground.
Anything that quotes the current administration’s words as if they are anything other than propaganda at best is an article than can be safely thrown straight into the trash.
This administration sucks, but it's a repeat of Trump's first term: cut taxes and keep government spending high. The Federal Reserve is also entering a QE-lite phase so more "free" money will be available for businesses to grow.
Tariffs are likely to be repealed by the Supreme Court; people in the administration are betting against them if that tells you anything. 2026 will be interesting.
Wow, so many comments here just spouting tribal talking points without actually looking at what the article is saying.
The article's conclusions look wholly reasonable to me. Americans (well, the wealthy ones anyway) got a massive tax cut, and interest rates are likely to come down, especially once JPow is replaced. That should lead to greater economic activity.
However, it will also very likely lead to higher inflation, which was never really tamed, and even greater wealth inequality. That is likely to lead to even more political discontent, and I don't think anyone has a crystal ball on how that will eventually play out.
The Economist also had an article just before the 2024 election saying how the US economy was so great and the envy of the world. And that may have been true looking at aggregate numbers, but it's pretty clear huge swaths of the US electorate have seen their economic situation deteriorate. Large numbers of people on Obamacare will no longer be able to afford their health insurance, and if interest rates do come down as expected it will probably make homeownership even more unaffordable. Nevermind the real risks of the federal government's ever increasing debt unsustainability.
The economy may "accelerate", but at some point the deep structural problems will cause the wheels to come off.
Stephen Kotkin suggests that the US share of nominal global GDP remains roughly constant, at around 25% regardless of political and policy changes. I don't know if that's right but any real change in the trend might require even more substantial policy re-work than we've had in the last 50 years. Trump II might not be that.
>the administration has weakened tax enforcement ... as more people cheat on their payments ... the effect could be worth an additional 0.25% of GDP.
Here is the first beneficial side effect of firing and defunding all of those federal workers and agencies, especially the now-hobbled IRS. Who says "cheaters never prosper"?
We have an economic forecast of national prosperity through perdition.
Despite consensus forecasts predicting a slowdown to 1.8% growth, the US economy appears poised for acceleration in 2026 driven by a potent combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary loosening. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s optimism is underpinned by the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which delivers retroactive tax cuts, alongside a rebound in government spending following a record 43-day shutdown and the potential for the Supreme Court to invalidate certain tariffs, resulting in significant corporate refunds. This fiscal stimulus coincides with the Federal Reserve’s pivot to lower interest rates—a trend likely to intensify as President Trump seeks to appoint dovish leadership to the central bank. While this synchronized stimulus supports bullish stock market projections and complements favorable global conditions like low oil prices, it carries significant risks of reigniting inflation and spiking long-term bond yields; nevertheless, the absence of immediate shocks suggests the economy has ample scope to outperform expectations.
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[ 2.1 ms ] story [ 38.4 ms ] threadTariffs are likely to be repealed by the Supreme Court; people in the administration are betting against them if that tells you anything. 2026 will be interesting.
World trade is dead as we know it, cross border compute is on its last wheels. Internal median buying power is also in shambles.
Economist, Nov 18th 1999: Readjusting the lens (The latest statistics require a new look at America’s productivity puzzle)
https://archive.is/hXJ8A
Economist, Sep 23rd 1999: A new economy for the New World? (Inflation may not be as dead as it seems)
https://archive.is/eHeiU
The article's conclusions look wholly reasonable to me. Americans (well, the wealthy ones anyway) got a massive tax cut, and interest rates are likely to come down, especially once JPow is replaced. That should lead to greater economic activity.
However, it will also very likely lead to higher inflation, which was never really tamed, and even greater wealth inequality. That is likely to lead to even more political discontent, and I don't think anyone has a crystal ball on how that will eventually play out.
The Economist also had an article just before the 2024 election saying how the US economy was so great and the envy of the world. And that may have been true looking at aggregate numbers, but it's pretty clear huge swaths of the US electorate have seen their economic situation deteriorate. Large numbers of people on Obamacare will no longer be able to afford their health insurance, and if interest rates do come down as expected it will probably make homeownership even more unaffordable. Nevermind the real risks of the federal government's ever increasing debt unsustainability.
The economy may "accelerate", but at some point the deep structural problems will cause the wheels to come off.
>the administration has weakened tax enforcement ... as more people cheat on their payments ... the effect could be worth an additional 0.25% of GDP.
Here is the first beneficial side effect of firing and defunding all of those federal workers and agencies, especially the now-hobbled IRS. Who says "cheaters never prosper"?
We have an economic forecast of national prosperity through perdition.