Show HN: Calculating the probability of winning the US Presidential Election

4 points by sendos 13y ago ↗ HN

Using daily data from electoral-vote.com, I calculate the probability of either candidate winning the presidential election.

http://prespredict.com

Note: * I submitted this about three months ago, and there is much more data on the site now.

* It is somewhat similar to 538, and as far as I can tell, I'm using a simpler model but still getting numbers close to those on 538.

* I have also added results from 2004, which shows an interesting parallel to Bush's chances after his first disastrous debate with Kerry. He was eventually able to overcome that by the end of the third debate.

2 comments

[ 4.1 ms ] story [ 12.7 ms ] thread

sendos 13y ago ↗

Clickable: http://prespredict.com

Clickable 2004, for the historical perspective: http://prespredict.com/elec2004.html

[dead] bluestix 13y ago ↗

"This information comes from Burke's Peerage, which is the Bible of aristocratic genealogy, based in London. Every presidential election in America, since and including George Washington in 1789 to Bill Clinton, has been won by the candidate with the most British and French royal genes."