I think I could trust AI more if we used it to do heuristics for expensive deterministic processes. Sort of a cross between Bloom Filters and speculative execution. Determine the odds the expensive operation 1 will indicate that expensive operation 2 needs to happen, and then start expensive operation 2 while we determine if it’s actually needed. If its right 95% of the time, which is the sort of ranges AI can aspire to, that’s skipping the high latency task chaining 19 times out of 20, which would be pretty good.
I think it’s only a matter of time before we see asic vendors making TPU devices. Same thing happened with BTC. There was enough money there to spawn an industry. Nvidias 70% margins are too hard to ignore. And if playing on the open market seems too rough, there’s always acquisition potential like what happened to groq.
I've been wondering when we will see general purpose consumer FPGAs, and eventually ASICs, for inference. This reminds me of bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining started with GPUs. I think I remember a brief FPGA period that transitioned to ASIC. My limited understanding of Google's tensor processing unit chips are that they are effectively a transformer ASIC. That's likely a wild over-simplification of Google's TPU, but Gemini is proof that GPUs are not needed for inference.
I suspect GPU inference will come to an end soon, as it will likely be wildly inefficient by comparison to purpose built transformer chips. All those Nvidia GPU-based servers may become obsolete should transformer ASICs become mainstream. GPU bitcoin mining is just an absolute waste of money (cost of electricity) now. I believe the same will be true for GPU-based inference soon. The hundreds of billions of dollars being invested on GPU-based inference seems like an extremely risky bet that ASIC transformers won't happen, although Google has already widely deployed their own TPUs.
This is a common misunderstanding from industry observers (not industry practitioners). Each generation of (NVIDIA) GPU is an ASIC with different ISA etc. Bitcoin mining simply was not important enough (last year, only $23B Bitcoin mined in total (at $100,000 per)). There is amped incentive to implement every possible instructions useful into GPU (without worrying about backward compatibility, thanks to PTX).
ASIC transformers won't happen (defined as a chip with single instruction to do sdpa from anything that is not broadly marketed as GPU, and won't have annualized sale more than $3B). Mark my word. I am happy to take a bet on longbets.org with anyone on this for $1000 and my part will go to PSF.
TPUs aren't transformer ASICs. The Ironwood TPU that Gemini was trained on was designed before LLMs became popular with ChatGPT's release. The architecture was general enough that it ended up being efficient for LLM training.
A special-purpose transformer inference ASIC would be like Etched's Sohu chip.
The only time FPGAs / ASICS are better is if there's gains we can make by innovating on the hardware architecture itself. That's pretty hard to do considering GPUs are already heavily optimized for this use case.
This is cool. I'm observing a trend of "build a tiny version from the ground-up to understand it" a la Karpathy's micrograd/minGPT. Seems like one of the best ways to learn.
Thanks again for the repost and all the support!! Been a blast and super cool to see the interest, if you want to follow along for more of our writeups, our blog can be found here: https://chewingonchips.substack.com/
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[ 3.5 ms ] story [ 45.1 ms ] threadI suspect GPU inference will come to an end soon, as it will likely be wildly inefficient by comparison to purpose built transformer chips. All those Nvidia GPU-based servers may become obsolete should transformer ASICs become mainstream. GPU bitcoin mining is just an absolute waste of money (cost of electricity) now. I believe the same will be true for GPU-based inference soon. The hundreds of billions of dollars being invested on GPU-based inference seems like an extremely risky bet that ASIC transformers won't happen, although Google has already widely deployed their own TPUs.
ASIC transformers won't happen (defined as a chip with single instruction to do sdpa from anything that is not broadly marketed as GPU, and won't have annualized sale more than $3B). Mark my word. I am happy to take a bet on longbets.org with anyone on this for $1000 and my part will go to PSF.
A special-purpose transformer inference ASIC would be like Etched's Sohu chip.
https://cloud.google.com/tpu
> A TPU is an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) designed by Google for neural networks.