There are a few things that confuse me about this potential acquisition:
1. You won't govern it. Greenland has it's own Self-Government Act. [0]
2. You won't own the land. Almost all land is owned by the State. [1]
3. The Danes have no special land ownership rights. [2]
4. Land use rights, however, are granted for different activities (fishing, mining) subject to approval. [3]
I'd imagine none of this changes under a new owner. Why the can't the US just sign up for mining rights already? It seems like that's exactly what it would have to do post acquisition--unless of course the US also plans to bulldoze Greenland's sovereignty.
I'm genuinely interested if anyone can provide color.
The events of the past 12 months, culminating in Venezuela and now Greenland, has made me reevaluate a lot of my beliefs about unimpeded competition between free agents (i.e. a free market) leading to the best and most peaceful outcomes. Clearly, a few participants becoming disproportionately powerful is a failure mode.
The way I've tried to reconcile my beliefs with what are clearly contradictory observations in the real world is: markets/competition are dependent on a substrate of social contract, and that substrate must precede market dynamics and must not be subject to them. When market dynamics leak into the foundation on which the market is built (the social contract, culture, law, norms), then the system starts moving toward raw competition, which is the same as war. Which is what I think what's happening now.
Stephen Miller's very recent Jake Tapper CNN interview adds evidence to the argument POWER is king and LAW is nowhere near as important.. to his .. ahem .. the Trump administration.
So, it'll continue to be reality, for as long as Trumpism reigns in USA.
Per Greenlandic laws, they own the mineral rights. They can license rights to others, and Denmark will also receive a portion of the profits.
Unfortunately, this is the model that American conservatives and billionaires hate. The idea that a country is entitled to their own resources is repulsive to them. This is also one of the things fundamental things where American vs Nordic mindsets are worlds apart.
It is arguably also the real reason why US attacked Venezuela.
As a Swede I must confess I don't know much about Greenland. But if Denmark goes all-in on Greenland, you can bet the other Nordic countries will be involved too.
Not sure how this will play out. Really strange situation and as I said I don't even know how much Denmark cares about Greenland. Any Danes here that can tell us more?
I'm Danish, we don't really care about whether or not Greenland is a part of our Kingdom (I'm sure some people do but it's certainly not the majority in my opinion). That being said it's not like it's ours to sell or give away, so it would be more relevant to ask someone from Greenland. I think the most likely outcome is that Greenland decides to leave our Kingdom and become something like the Marshall Isles.
The whole national security part is a lie though. The US can already do whatever they want up there. Well except for having nuclear weapons, but they'd probably be allowed if they asked.
I think some of our politicians care that they'd lose any form of geopolitical relevance without Greenland, but it's not like our population in general supports that.
Can't wait for the CNN headlines: "DANES CHEER AS TYRAN PRIME MINISTER CAPTURED", "DANES WELCOME FOREIGN LIBERATORS", "DANISH ECONOMY TO BOOM WITH FREE MARKETS REFORMS"
An investment broker comes to an old German still keeping money in a bank.
- Look, Americans announced plans to get Greenland and extract all the resources! It's time to invest in the stock market!
- But what if Denmark disagrees?
- Don't worry! America will just take it anyway!
- And if Denmark resists?
- Then America will invade!
- But what if NATO collapses when America attacks a member state?
- Well... then America won't survive alone in a hostile world.
- And if America collapses?
- Mein Herr... then surely it's worth losing a few thousand euros just to watch that spectacle, no?
Mining in Arctic is a technical nightmare. Typical alloys become brittle in these temperatures, darkness severely limits operations and/or workplace accidents, transport requires ice-breakers, permafrost is fundamentally unstable (heat from buildings melts it, causing sinking), and you need to pay people a lot to work there.
By the time those resources are accessible, we'll be in a major flood disaster on all our coasts. Why don't we just leave this bit of resource alone for the sake of land that actually supports life.
As a European. I'm starting to hate the US. Not dislike. Hate.
For months I thought they can't possibly allow the orange clown to ruin their country any further. But the country is clearly spiralling out of control. And I'm starting to hate the whole culture.
Now if a part of the population did anything other than comment online. If they took to the streets or did anything substantial in protest. But no. Crickets. So to me, every US citizen is at least partly complicit.
For years, I already noticed I subconsciously did not like action movies that featured CIA / FBI / US Military anymore. And I gradually moved away from all US based infrastructure in my projects because it strategically made sense.
But these past weeks it tipped over in actual disgust. For me, there's no difference between the US, China and Russia anymore. The US will probably take Greenland. China will take Taiwan. Russia will take Ukraine.
And Europe needs to unite further and prepare for war, or risk being torn apart by the new axis of evil.
My prediction of how a hostile takeover would work out - i.e. all US offers to purchase Greenland are flat rejected:
0. USA invades Greenland by shipping thousands of troops there, Denmark does the same. I don't believe there will be any direct conflict, but rather that US simply declares they now control Greenland.
1. Denmark invokes a number of NATO articles, immediately.
2. NATO crisis, all members meet in hopes to work it out.
3. Trump won't budge. USA uses their veto right on all possible interventions. NATO still stands, but is at this point in complete turmoil, and effectively toothless.
4. Allies of Denmark, probably EU too, puts pressure on the US to step back. Economic sanctions against US.
5. Sanction war starts between USA and parts of western Europe.
6. Congress does not authorize Trumps use of military, and Trump must withdraw within 90 days.
7. Trump vetoes this. Pulls the "make me" card when threatened. Trump argues that he can use funds as he wishes, dragged to court. The case is fast-tracked to supreme court.
8. If US economy crashes, Trump might be successfully impeached and removed. If not, he'll just continue.
9. Cold front between US and Europe. China tries to strengthen economic ties with Europe to fill the gap that has been hit by US sanctions. Who knows what Russia does - likely a new European military organization has grown out of this.
10. Eventually Trump leaves office, a sooner or later a new democratic president takes over, and reverses everything. Gives back Greenland to Denmark, does everything to mend relations with Europe.
there is good reason to believe that mineral prices would have to climb 30% above current prices and stay there, before greenland's resources would become profiable, which in the scenario bieng presented, would then also have to cover the 600 million/yr subsidy that Denmark currently provides to Greenland.
there are only two active mines there, both very specialised, and quite small on a tonage basis and a handfull of somewhat promising sites that could be developed useing conventional technology, the rest is speculative, and will remain that way, sitting under miles of ice. Speaking of specualtion, it is so cold on top of the ice sometimes that people have suggested that there the possibilty of CO² ice forming naturaly, but there is no way for humans to get to those places, so it will remain an esoteric debate for now.
Is this not Trump's usual negotiation strategy? Start with outrageous, totally unacceptable demands and then slowly dial back while everyone else runs around like headless chickens. Ends with him in a much better position than if he had approached things in a rational manner?
The resources are currently under ice - but fear not. US is working hard at it by sabotaging green energy, drilling like crazy, and now also expanding it's oil reserves in the Venezuelan colony. It is a smart, pragmatic and self-consistent approach. Just for a different utility function.
31 comments
[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 36.1 ms ] threadInteresting times.
1. You won't govern it. Greenland has it's own Self-Government Act. [0]
2. You won't own the land. Almost all land is owned by the State. [1]
3. The Danes have no special land ownership rights. [2]
4. Land use rights, however, are granted for different activities (fishing, mining) subject to approval. [3]
I'd imagine none of this changes under a new owner. Why the can't the US just sign up for mining rights already? It seems like that's exactly what it would have to do post acquisition--unless of course the US also plans to bulldoze Greenland's sovereignty.
I'm genuinely interested if anyone can provide color.
[0]: https://english.stm.dk/the-prime-ministers-office/the-unity-...
[1]: https://www.city-journal.org/article/learning-from-greenland
[2]: https://www.thelocal.dk/20251114/greenland-limits-foreigners...
[3]: https://govmin.gl/exploration-prospecting/get-an-exploration...
The way I've tried to reconcile my beliefs with what are clearly contradictory observations in the real world is: markets/competition are dependent on a substrate of social contract, and that substrate must precede market dynamics and must not be subject to them. When market dynamics leak into the foundation on which the market is built (the social contract, culture, law, norms), then the system starts moving toward raw competition, which is the same as war. Which is what I think what's happening now.
So, it'll continue to be reality, for as long as Trumpism reigns in USA.
Unfortunately, this is the model that American conservatives and billionaires hate. The idea that a country is entitled to their own resources is repulsive to them. This is also one of the things fundamental things where American vs Nordic mindsets are worlds apart.
It is arguably also the real reason why US attacked Venezuela.
Not sure how this will play out. Really strange situation and as I said I don't even know how much Denmark cares about Greenland. Any Danes here that can tell us more?
The whole national security part is a lie though. The US can already do whatever they want up there. Well except for having nuclear weapons, but they'd probably be allowed if they asked.
I think some of our politicians care that they'd lose any form of geopolitical relevance without Greenland, but it's not like our population in general supports that.
Well done Europeans, catering to Trump
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/f40c2c69-b...
another map
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/7658bbc3-7...
source
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL10...
For months I thought they can't possibly allow the orange clown to ruin their country any further. But the country is clearly spiralling out of control. And I'm starting to hate the whole culture.
Now if a part of the population did anything other than comment online. If they took to the streets or did anything substantial in protest. But no. Crickets. So to me, every US citizen is at least partly complicit.
For years, I already noticed I subconsciously did not like action movies that featured CIA / FBI / US Military anymore. And I gradually moved away from all US based infrastructure in my projects because it strategically made sense.
But these past weeks it tipped over in actual disgust. For me, there's no difference between the US, China and Russia anymore. The US will probably take Greenland. China will take Taiwan. Russia will take Ukraine.
And Europe needs to unite further and prepare for war, or risk being torn apart by the new axis of evil.
0. USA invades Greenland by shipping thousands of troops there, Denmark does the same. I don't believe there will be any direct conflict, but rather that US simply declares they now control Greenland.
1. Denmark invokes a number of NATO articles, immediately.
2. NATO crisis, all members meet in hopes to work it out.
3. Trump won't budge. USA uses their veto right on all possible interventions. NATO still stands, but is at this point in complete turmoil, and effectively toothless.
4. Allies of Denmark, probably EU too, puts pressure on the US to step back. Economic sanctions against US.
5. Sanction war starts between USA and parts of western Europe.
6. Congress does not authorize Trumps use of military, and Trump must withdraw within 90 days.
7. Trump vetoes this. Pulls the "make me" card when threatened. Trump argues that he can use funds as he wishes, dragged to court. The case is fast-tracked to supreme court.
8. If US economy crashes, Trump might be successfully impeached and removed. If not, he'll just continue.
9. Cold front between US and Europe. China tries to strengthen economic ties with Europe to fill the gap that has been hit by US sanctions. Who knows what Russia does - likely a new European military organization has grown out of this.
10. Eventually Trump leaves office, a sooner or later a new democratic president takes over, and reverses everything. Gives back Greenland to Denmark, does everything to mend relations with Europe.