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If you are confident that you can reach arbitrary judgments in about 1% of all cases, maybe via corruption, political influence or just random arbitrariness of court decisions, would this mean the expected value of this suit is approximately 1.3B usd minus ~10m legal fees?
Well, the US legal system is that broken, I see him with high chances of winning, somehow? (like "we give you 50% of what you are asking for but shut up now")
For comparison purposes, the defendants should argue the valuation is what it is because musk is not in it. Consequently at worst it's a few millions.